Retail sales came in soft for February, with some strength in staples. Discretionary was so/so which would have seemed bad two months ago but comes as a bit of a relief in light of the bloodletting we've seen in stocks levered to the consumer over the last month.
Shares of Walmart are down 17% in the month since the company took down guidance for the year based on Tariffs and the general ennui of consumers in the face of "economic uncertainty". Walmart wasn't a cheap stock at $105 but at $80 shares are pricing in a weak St Patrick's Day, a soft Easter and about a 70% chance of a lousy Christmas.
Being the low-price provider of discount grocery and household items isn't a bad thing in a weak economy. Walmart is the world's largest employer (except the Chinese Army). COVID and the resulting supply chain disasters made Walmart a much better operator. For Walmart to keep breaking lower from here it's going to take more than flexing and sentiment. It'll certainly take more than a .3% change in retail sales for February and some weak Consumer Sentiment surveys.
What happens if the sky doesn't fall? What if the...
