One number. One chart. One insight moving markets today.
The Tactical Engine Just Turned On🔋
By Grant Hawkridge
December 4, 2025
Today's number is... 17
The Fear or Strength Model has been turned off for the past 17 trading days, but buyers have now finally pushed it back into positive mode.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top section displays the S&P 500 price in black
Green shading marks periods when the model is in positive mode.
Red shading marks periods when the model is in negative mode.
The middle section displays a black line that tracks the 10-day average of the NYSE and NASDAQ net new high advance decline line. Gray shading appears when this line is rising.
The bottom section displays the Volatility Index as a black line. Gray shading appears when the VIX reads above 28.5.
The Takeaway: The model has been turned off for the past 17 days.
That kept the tactical backdrop quiet. No strength in the AD line. No fear in the VIX.
But the switch has now flipped. The model is on again.
Positive mode has the edge. When the model sits in that state, the S&P 500 has gained 10.5% a year. Negative mode drops to 3.7%.
That gap is meaningful. It rewards patience. It rewards waiting for the right tape.
Strength fired this time. New highs have been outpacing new lows long enough to turn the trend up. That gives me the green light to start hunting for setups again.
The model now lines up with the rest of my weekly bull market checklist. The long-term trend is fine. Breadth is improving. Risk gauges lean positive. The one holdout is now back in gear.
So, do we press risk or wait for follow-through?
Is this the spark that wakes the tape up coming into year-end?
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