Today's number is... 41

The relative ratio of the Momentum Index versus the S&P 500 Index has reached a fresh 41-month new high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of the Momentum Index versus the S&P 500 Index.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel represents the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the relative ratio. When the line is green, it indicates that the daily RSI is in a bullish regime, while a red line signifies that the daily RSI is in a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: This ratio just broke out to its highest level since December 2021. That tells me something simple… Investors are getting more aggressive. 

They’re buying strength. They want exposure to risk...

Today's number is... 1

We saw stage one of the breadth cycle... I’m now on the lookout for stage two.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: First, I want to give a huge shoutout to Mike Hurley, who taught me this way to look at the stock market!

We recently saw stage one of the breadth cycle.

In my framework, that means Spring is here.

On May 12th, over 55% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day highs. That’s a breadth thrust — the kind of signal we only see at major turning points. It marks the beginning of a new leg higher, not just for a handful of stocks, but across the board.

But first, a quick recap on how we define the breadth cycle.

I break the market into four seasons:

• Spring: The reset. It starts with a breadth thrust — shown as a green line in our chart.
• Summer: The uptrend and momentum strengthen. Breadth and leadership move together.
• Fall: A warning sign. An unusual spike in the 52-week lows marks the “first fall day” — the red line.
• Winter...

Today's number is... 0

My Core Market Model has risen back above the zero line.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: My Core Market Model brings together three key areas: breadth, liquidity, and sentiment.

Breadth looks at how many stocks are participating. I check things like 20-day highs and how many stocks are above their 50-day moving average.

Liquidity shows where money is moving. Are investors choosing stocks over bonds? Are high-yield bonds acting better than Treasuries? What’s the momentum in yields?

Sentiment measures positioning and fear. I watch NAAIM exposure, Investors Intelligence, and the VIX.

I don’t act on one piece of data. I combine them all, then smooth the result with a 5-day moving average. 

It’s not a buy or sell tool. It’s a way to read the environment.

When the model is above zero, I treat it as a bullish backdrop… Below zero, it’s bearish.

Right now, the model is back above zero.

That’s an important market shift. It had been...

Today's number is... 3

Let's check in on how the third year of this bull market is progressing.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The light blue line represents the performance of an average first year during a bull market for the S&P 500. The dark blue line illustrates the performance of the first year of the current bull market for the S&P 500.
• The light gray line indicates the performance of an average second year within a bull market for the S&P 500, while the dark gray line shows the performance of the second year of the current bull market.
• The light red line depicts the performance of an average third year during a bull market for the S&P 500, and the dark red line represents the performance of the third year of the current bull market for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: By my definition, a bull market starts with a 20% rally after a 20% drop. Based on that, we’re still in a bull market that began in late 2022.

Today's number is... 15

AAII Sentiment finally flips after 15 weeks of more Bears than Bulls.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The red line in the top panel shows the consecutive weeks the AAII Bears were greater than the AAII Bulls.
• The blue line in the bottom panel shows the AAII Bull-Bears spread.

The Takeaway: The tide has finally turned after 15 straight weeks of more Bears than Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. 

Bulls are now back on top!

This was the fifth-longest bearish stretch on record, going back to the 1990s. During this bearish sentiment run, the AAII bull-bear spread dropped to levels we last saw during the 2022 cost-of-living bear market and the 2008 financial crisis.

Now the tone has changed.

It’s a good reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift when price rips higher. 

What does this mean going forward?

Long periods of pessimism can create fuel for upside, especially if the market starts showing...

Today's number is... 59

The All Country World Index ex-US ETF (ACWX) has surpassed its previous cycle highs from 2021, which is around 59.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line shows the price of the All Country World Index ex-US ETF (ACWX).
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of ACWX.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of ACWX.

The Takeaway: The All Country World Index ex-US ETF just broke out of a long consolidation. The base lasted 992 trading days. At its worst, ACWX dropped 32.8% during that time.

Now, it’s above the prior cycle highs from 2021, around 59. This level matters. It capped price for years. Breaking it is a shift.

ACWX is showing a strong trend, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the 50-day above the 200-day, and both moving averages sloping upward—this is a clear bullish setup.

Year to date, ACWX is up over 13%. The US market, measured by the S&P 500, is down 0.51%. That’s a big...

Today's number is... 20

Yesterday, we saw the S&P 500 close down 1.6%. This marks the 20th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column represents the year, while each subsequent column indicates the number of large down days for that year, ranging by declines of 1%, 2%, and 3% or more and total count.

The Takeaway: That’s the 20th time this year it has fallen by 1% or more in a single day.

It sounds like a lot, but it’s not unusual. Since 1950, the average year has about 25 of these moves. So we’re still below that.

Still, 20 is a good point to pause and ask: Is this normal volatility, or something more?

If there were real fear, we’d likely see huge spikes in the VIX or credit spreads. So far, we haven’t.

Volatility is part of any market, even in strong years. But price tells the story. A few isolated drops don’t mean much. A cluster of them might.

If we start seeing five or six of these in a short time, that could signal a...

Today's number is... 118

It’s been 118 days since Bitcoin last closed at an all-time high. Yesterday, it finally broke that level. This is now the highest daily close ever.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the price of Bitcoin.
• The blue line in the top panel is the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin.
• The red line in the top panel is the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin.
• The green and red lines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the price of Bitcoin. When the line is green it indicates that bitcoin is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: Year to date, Bitcoin is up more than 14%. Over the past year, it’s gained 49%.

The trend is strong.

Bitcoin is 15.6% above its 50-day moving average and 14.9% above the 200-day. Both averages are...

Today's number is... 35%

Over 35% of S&P 500 stocks are above their December 2024 highest high.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

•  The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their December 2024 highest high.

The Takeaway: Right now, over 35% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their December 2024 highest high.

That’s the most we’ve seen since February 19, 2025.

This matters because December is when I first saw signs of weakness.

Momentum was slowing. Trends were rolling over. Fewer stocks were hitting new highs. 

At the same time, more stocks were declining than advancing.

Sentiment was bearish—even while the index was still pushing new highs.

That told me the surface strength didn’t match what was happening underneath. So I anchored to the December highest highs as a key level. If stocks were below...

Today's number is... 49.5%

49.5% of S&P 500 stocks are now in strong uptrends.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• In green is the % of S&P 500 stocks above both their 200-day and their 50-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term uptrend.
• In yellow is the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day but below their 50-day moving averages. This indicates a longer-term uptrend but a short-term mess.
• In red is the % of S&P 500 stocks below their 200-day and below their 50-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term downtrend.

The Takeaway: This chart does a good job of showing what’s really happening under the surface. And something just changed.

For 47 trading days, more S&P 500 stocks were trading below both their 200-day and 50-day moving averages. That trend had been in place for a while.

Now, that’s flipped.

Nearly half of the S&P 500 stocks...

Today's number is... 58%

58% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day new highs yesterday. 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 20-day highs.
• The red line in the bottom panel is the trigger for a breadth thrust.
• The gray shading highlights when in a breadth thrust regime.

The Takeaway: Market participation is heating up!

Yesterday, my favorite breadth thrust officially fired.

The breadth thrust I am talking about is when 55% or more of the S&P 500 stocks reach a 20-day new high.

Yesterday, we saw 58% of S&P 500 stocks making 20-day new highs, 

This means we have entered a breadth thrust regime that lasts one year.

It’s not an all-clear signal or a guarantee that the market will go up, but this breadth thrust regime points to healthy market leadership conditions and...

Today's number is... 2025

In 2025, we’re in historic territory for bearish sentiment.

We’ve now seen 14 consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have outnumbered AAII Bulls. 

And it gets even more extreme with the AAII Bears, which have stayed above 50% for 11 straight weeks.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The red line in the top panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears > AAII Bulls.
• The red line in the bottom panel tracks the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have remained above 50%.

The Takeaway: This is a prolonged period of pessimism that deserves attention. We have seen 14 consecutive weeks during which the AAII Bears have outnumbered the AAII Bulls, marking the 5th longest stretch of bearish sentiment on record. 

The extreme data does not stop there; we have also seen that for the past 11 straight weeks, the percentage of AAII Bears has exceeded 50%. This level of bearish sentiment has never persisted for this length of time before.

When...