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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Strong Code, Strong Market

July 3, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

None of the noise has stopped this market from doing what it’s destined to do..

Breakouts are showing up everywhere.

Tech, industrials, financials — all ripping. Even the laggards are finally joining in.

Small-caps are pressing too, adding context to the broad strength we’re seeing beneath the surface.

But the real standout?

Software stocks just hit new all-time highs.

These are arguably the best businesses in the world.

 ...
All Star Charts Premium

Junior Hall of Famers (07-03-2025)

July 3, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

All Star Options

An Independence Day Idea: Forgiveness

July 3, 2025

This Independence Day weekend, let's seek freedom from guilt.

 

As a trader, I carry around a lot of guilt.

Guilt for missing a huge winner.

Guilt for not getting out sooner.

Guilt for not holding long enough.

Guilt for using the wrong strategy.

Guilt for being late to a major turning point.

It’s a long list. And it’s heavy.

This guilt doesn’t just live in the rearview mirror. It follows me into the next trade. It clogs up my decision-making. It makes me hesitate when I should act. It whispers, “Don’t screw this one up too.”

Can you relate?

Lately, I’ve been working on something that I think might help: forgiveness.

Not the fluffy, wishy-washy kind. But real, honest, intentional forgiveness.

Forgiveness for not being perfect.

Forgiveness for being human.

Forgiveness for not catching every move.

Because here’s the thing — I can’t catch every trade. It’s impossible. Especially in a bull market like this one, where new setups are popping up everywhere. There will always be winners I miss. There will always be hindsight that makes me wince.

But carrying all...

Beating the Tape, Not the Estimates 🍻

July 3, 2025

Constellation Brands $STZ is quietly separating itself from the pack.

We outlined it as the #1 earnings report to watch this week in The Weekly Beat. 

Despite reporting a double miss after the closing bell on Tuesday, the stock rallied following its latest earnings release. This marks the 2nd straight quarter of positive post-earnings price action. 

They're continuing to deliver consistent growth, strong margins, and solid free cash flow. 

This is a rare combination in a defensive sector facing pressure from inflation, shifting consumer preferences, and private-label competition.

While many of its peers are getting punished for lackluster results, the market is rewarding Constellation for reporting a double miss.

Beer remains the crown jewel of their portfolio, led by Modelo, now the #1 beer in America. 

Meanwhile, the premiumization of the wine and spirits business is helping improve margins and reposition the segment for long-term growth.

Management continues to reward shareholders through...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/3/25

July 3, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to ITB position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Director Stallings Reports a $213,000 $TCBI Purchase

July 3, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Texas Capital Bancshares $TCBI – Director Robert Stallings filed a Form 4 for $213,000.

Regional banks are basing hard, and these mid-sized insider buys can be early tells on sector rotation.

Some of the leaders in space are already breaking out. 

📌Cidara Therapeutics $CDTX – Commodore Capital filed a new 13G at 5.50%.

Another smart-money biotech stake surfaces. Fresh positioning here in a hot name, just as the sector warms up. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from July 2, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

...
The Daily Number

The Bellwethers Just Spoke — And They’re Bullish🔓

July 3, 2025

Today's number is... 157.93

That’s the new all-time high for my custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows our custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index. It includes major cross-sector leaders, such as Alcoa, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, FedEx, General Electric, General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald’s, Walmart, and Exxon Mobil.

The Takeaway: This index tracks the most important stocks in the market.

These are companies that sit at the center of the US economy.

From tech and energy to healthcare and financials, each name carries equal weight.

No single stock dominates.

It’s a clean read on real leadership.

And these names are the generals.

When they move together, they reflect investor confidence and broad market appetite for risk.

New highs in this group usually signal that the backdrop is strengthening, not weakening.

The index just broke out of its latest base and closed at a fresh high.

It’s been stair-stepping...

Ratio Analysis - the last resistance point still standing?

July 2, 2025

Ratio analysis needs to be in every chartists toolkit.  Believe it or not, the PATTERNS work great w/ them, especially on the longer term charts.  On my weekly show (sorry no show this weekend w/ 4th of July) I have been discussing this ratio every week. For me, it's literally my ejection seat.

You see, back in the day, I was able to rack up over 1500+ hours flying in the coolest jet alive - F14 A/B/D Tomcat.  What a blast and what a ride.  What does this have to do w/ investing? EVERYTHING - for me.  You see, even though I've got hundreds of landings on an aircraft carrier both day and night, attended TOPGUN and became a Naval Aviation Strike Fighter Tactics Instructor (SFTI - still a pinnacle of my life) - I was the dude who never flew the jet.  Therefore, ultimately, did I control all of the risk?  Nope.  (Technically, I did, as I could pull the ejection handle anytime but that is an "other" in the good/other world - leave it at that) So, no, I did not have the stick and throttles so that made me even MORE diligent in understanding my craft, the jet, the surroundings and, essentially, driven to prove that you (us back seaters)...

All Star Charts Premium,
The Strazza Letter

Special Report: Housing & Friends

July 2, 2025

Stock markets all over the world are parading to fresh highs. From Europe to Asia, the world’s major benchmarks sit at – or within a stone’s throw of – all-time or cycle highs.

Stateside, the Nasdaq 100 printed a new all-time high, and the S&P 500 followed a few days after. 

Leadership groups are breaking out in unison. Down the risk curve, speculative growth is screaming and semis are back in the driver’s seat. 

One bull flag after another keeps resolving higher. 

And most importantly for today's note— the laggards keep catching up to the leaders.

But there’s one group that just hasn't shown up yet… and quite frankly, the bull market can’t rage on without them. I’m talking about a group of stocks SO important, they literally have to join the party. Otherwise, it throws a wrench in the entire bullish thesis.

It’s Homebuilders.

...

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (07-02-2025)

July 2, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

The Housing Market Just Flipped 📉📈

July 2, 2025

There weren’t any S&P 500 earnings reactions yesterday…

But we're seeing one of the most critical industry groups catch a major bid.

It’s been a rough stretch for the housing sector. 

Higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and sluggish demand have weighed heavily on homebuilders all year. 

As other cyclical sectors rallied, housing remained a clear laggard, offering investors little more than dead money.

But things are starting to turn.

XHB is at an inflection point 📈 

The Homebuilders ETF is in the process of reclaiming its VWAP, which is tied to its all-time high. This is a critical level that has acted as resistance since early 2024. 

The price is also reversing the damage of a massive top by reclaiming the neckline.

If this breakout sticks, it could mark a significant inflection point for one of the market’s most unloved industry groups.

Within this industry group, the earnings reactions from one stock have recently impressed us.

PulteGroup $PHM.

The stock has been rewarded for 9 of its last 11 earnings reports.

PHM is the 3rd largest homebuilder in...
All Star Options

[Options Premium] Bull Market Patterns

July 2, 2025

 

Today's trade follows a similar pattern of late --  High, tight consolidations continue to break out.

I've got another one here that is setting up for a breakout and I'm taking advantage of a recent pullback to get positioned at advantageous prices.

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/2/25

July 2, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLB position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!