There's so much happening in the commodities markets right now. 

Orange Juice futures just ripped 50% in several days and triggered our buy signal.

Crude Oil futures have resolved a textbook multi-year distribution pattern and triggered our sell signal.

To name a few...

We're also on the cusp of getting a fresh buy signal in Soybean Oil futures.

"Big Oil" wants more renewable diesel - from 3.3 to over 5 billion gallons.

If that's the case, demand will skyrocket for grains across the board.

The first week of 2025 was the largest 1-week rate of change since 1983 for Soybean Oil futures.

We love to call the beginning of each year "whipsaw hunting season."

This is where trends that are overextended, in either direction, tend to...

Gold Miners are ripping in 2025 as Gold futures continue to print fresh all-time highs.

Here's how the year has played out so far:

• The S&P 500 is down 8%
• Bitcoin is down 9%
• Bonds are flat
• Silver is up 12%
• Gold is up 22%
• And Gold Miners are up 47%

There has been a tremendous amount of dispersion in the returns.

Despite precious metals' clear leadership role this year, the short sellers have piled into the Gold miners.

One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines—it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

• In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.
• In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

Chart from Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist

Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries—but capital requirements limit how...