NRG Energy $NRG didn't just beat earnings expectations, it torched them.

The company delivered a double beat, with a 53% upside earnings surprise and an 8% top-line beat.

The result? The stock exploded by over 26%, marking its best earnings-day reaction ever.

But this isn't just about a beat. 

It's about a narrative shift. 

NRG is quickly positioning itself as a dominant player in the emerging "AI Utility" trade.

They're providing the energy infrastructure needed to power the next generation of computing.

From a technical perspective, it doesn't get cleaner. 

The stock gapped above a shelf of former highs and never looked back. 

It was a textbook gap-n-go, coming out of a classic rounding base.

This was about as decisive a move as you'll ever see.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let's dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

NRG Energy $NRG had the best...

On had to be perfect going into earnings. Fast growth company and priced accordingly. On isn't cheap. It wasn't a month ago at $35 and wasn't when I bought it yesterday at $50.70. What On has transcends cheap. On has momentum, good management, and a near-perfect business model. It's got the fattest margins in footwear.

After running 40% from the lows, On had to be close to perfect when the company reported this morning.

Here's how I graded it... 

Sign up for my free note here.

I just arrived in New Orleans for the Portfolio Accelerator event, and I’m absolutely fired up!

It’s my first time here, and the vibe is unreal.

We’ve got three full days ahead of deep-dive trading ideas, strategy sessions, and exploring what’s working in today’s market.

The whole crew is here—JC, Steve, Sean, Louis… it’s going to be amazing.

Now, let’s talk about Uber.

It’s one of my top picks right now.

I included it in last week’s Jr. Mags 7 post—definitely check it out if you haven’t...

I’m sitting at a Miami airport bar watching the Knicks game and looking at charts. 

It’s been a nightmare of a travel day. Let’s just say there are both pros and cons to island life. 

I'm trying to get out to New Orleans to meet my co-workers and clients at our Portfolio Accelerator event. 

I always look forward to these get-togethers. It’s an opportunity to catch up with JC and the analyst team in person. 

But more importantly, it’s a fun and laid back forum for sharing ideas with some of our smartest colleagues and industry professionals. I always come away with something good. Something I wasn’t watching. Something from someone else’s radar that is now on mine. 

I’m going to give a special talk on how I use VWAP...

As the weeks go by, the S&P 500 continues to slip in the global rankings.

It’s becoming harder to ignore the strength emerging overseas. International markets are flashing compelling opportunities—with attractive valuations and a clear resurgence in relative strength giving nimble investors plenty to work with.

Just look at Europe. It’s lit up in green. That’s relative strength in action.

After more than a decade of sideways action, Spain’s $EWP is breaking out to new all-time highs—defying the uncertainty weighing on U.S. equities.

Germany’s $EWG is doing the same—ripping to record highs.

Austria’s $EWO? New all-time highs as well.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets continue to wrestle with overhead resistance, struggling to reclaim its past glory.

With these long-term breakouts now taking shape abroad, it’s worth asking: Is the cycle of U.S. dominance finally running out of steam?

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended May 9, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Today, I’m headed to New Orleans for our tri-annual Portfolio Accelerator event.

There’s always been something about this city that resonates with me—not just the food, the music, or the unmistakable soul of the French Quarter—but its relationship with risk.

New Orleans understands risk. And more importantly, it understands how to manage it.

From levees and dikes to advanced pumping and drainage systems, the city doesn’t ignore the dangers it faces. It builds around them. It plans for them. It respects them. Just like we do as traders.

That’s part of why this city is such an inspiring backdrop for a room full of portfolio-focused minds. Like New Orleans, we try to hedge our exposure. We use long options, smart position sizing, and strategic overlays to reduce our downside risk. And like the levees, those hedges give us peace of mind—until the water starts to rise.

Because here’s the truth: sometimes, Mother Nature throws a punch you just can’t fully dodge. In markets, that’s when volatility explodes and our carefully calibrated short-vol trades face the full wrath of a panicked tape. Sure, we might technically...

I just checked the app, and my car is rounding the corner. 

He's picking me up for a rocket ship ride to the moon!

I should probably wait. I might be able to buy a dip. But there's a name I've wanted in the portfolio for months. They report tomorrow. Expectations aren't exactly "low" but you don't get many dips in the good names.

Here's why I'm betting on this hot brand ahead of tomorrow's earnings.

Everything in markets is connected. Not in theory—in function.

Think of the market like a human body. Your brain is at the center—processing data, storing memories, sending signals. But none of that matters unless the message reaches your limbs. That’s what nerves are for. They carry the signal. They make the body move.

Without that connection, you become rigid. Movement slows. Response times lag. Eventually, the whole system breaks down.

Markets work the same way and the bond market is the brain.

It holds the signal. It processes information about liquidity, risk, and expectations. The shape of the yield curve can tell you whether credit is expanding or contracting. Whether investors are optimistic or defensive. Whether the economy is warming up—or starting to overheat.

The bond market doesn’t just exist alongside stocks and commodities. It speaks to them. It sets the tone. It sends the signal.

If there’s enough liquidity, risk assets rally. Stocks rise and credit flows.

That’s a healthy system.

Too much liquidity?

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new trades today.
2. Adjustment to XRT position.
3. Closed IGV position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies — cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Palantir $PLTR – Director Heather Planishek grabbed $1.16 million with the stock just a few points shy of all‑time highs – insider fuel for the AI‑data leadership breakout bid.

📌 Builders FirstSource $BLDR – Director Paul Levy wrote a jaw‑dropping $55.5  million check – one of the biggest open‑market buys we’ve seen in years and a monster vote of confidence in a stock that halved off its highs a year ago. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 12, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Kratos Defense $KTOS – President & CEO Eric DeMarco bought $250,...

Monster Beverage $MNST has been quietly building pressure for years, and this quarter may have just been the catalyst it needed.

The company reported mixed results, but the stock still managed to climb 1.4%. 

They've now been rewarded for 18 of their last 26 earnings reports. 

That’s not noise...

That’s a pattern!

This isn’t some speculative upstart. 

It’s one of the most successful stocks of the 21st century. Since 2001, the price has increased by more than 200,000%. 

And now, after years of sideways action, it's knocking on the same resistance it’s failed at multiple times before.

Could it be time for the stock to moon again?

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Insulet $PODD had the best reaction score after reporting a double beat.

The company reported revenues of $570M, versus the...

Miners are leading the charge in 2025, and the data backs it up

It’s not even close...

In a year when most sectors are struggling to stay afloat, precious metals and the miners are surging higher.

We are so freaking back.

In a turn of events which would have been shocking virutally any other time in American history the administration finally agreed to a firm 90 day pause on the Chinese tariffs. "Firm" and "Pause" and "Deescalation" and, really, every word I'd normally apply to these type of announcements obviously come with a grain of a salt these days. This pause could be declared over by the time this note publishes. 

Regardless, we've got a new playing field. It's time to reassess our situation and how it impacts our stocks.

The Field Position:

The XRT consumer index is gapping higher on Monday morning and now clearly forming what I call an Inverted Batman. Silly name, real chart. The basic idea is stocks plunge, first gradually (consumer stocks started breaking at the end of January) then with a smash (the Liberation Day crash). At that point they grind a bit. The Worst Case Scenario gets priced in. Optimism, guarded and cynical though it may be, builds until, finally, the fever breaks and folks start chasing higher.

To whit:

You can call the chart whatever you'd like but the price moves line-up quite...

Short sellers are getting squeezed, and you can see it.

These investors have been caught offside, and they're being forced to liquidate their short positions.

They're suffering right now, and that's precisely when we want to come in with the Freshly Squeezed strategy.

Here's our latest Freshly Squeezed table: 

As you can see, Hims & Hers Health $HIMS, Sezzle $SEZL, and Porch Group $PRCH are at the top of the scan. 

Over the last 10 trading sessions, they've rallied 85%, 81.6%, and 74.5%, respectively.

We also have tables sorted by short interest and days-to-cover.

Now, let's talk about today's setup and why we think the short sellers are about to get their faces ripped off.

First, here's some context 👇

Sezzle $SEZL is an emerging "buy now, pay later" platform based in...

Today's number is... 2025

In 2025, we’re in historic territory for bearish sentiment.

We’ve now seen 14 consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have outnumbered AAII Bulls. 

And it gets even more extreme with the AAII Bears, which have stayed above 50% for 11 straight weeks.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The red line in the top panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears > AAII Bulls.
• The red line in the bottom panel tracks the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have remained above 50%.

The Takeaway: This is a prolonged period of pessimism that deserves attention. We have seen 14 consecutive weeks during which the AAII Bears have outnumbered the AAII Bulls, marking the 5th longest stretch of bearish sentiment on record. 

The extreme data does not stop there; we have also seen that for the past 11 straight weeks, the percentage of AAII Bears has exceeded 50%. This level of bearish sentiment has never persisted for this length of time before.

When...