Sign up for my free note here.

When we look outside the US, even the riskiest stocks in the world are in rally mode. 

It’s not just developed markets showing strength—emerging markets are also breaking out.

Below, we have the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF $FRDM breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs.

This ETF is built differently from other EM funds. It ranks personal and economic freedom in countries around the world—and weights the index accordingly. 

I like it for that reason. But I like it even more because it has consistently outperformed its EM peers since its launch.

Among its major country exposures are Chile, Taiwan, South Korea, and Poland— these countries make up almost 70% of the fund.

If you see a bull flag… Buy it. 

It’s what we’ve been telling our clients, and it’s been our mantra internally.

This has been the top pattern to profit from lately. Period.

It’s simple, reliable, and works best in bullish environments like this one.

I’ve been putting more and more money behind these patterns over the past few weeks. Not only do they keep resolving higher, but the reaction legs have been fierce— some going flat-out vertical.

Here are two recent examples to illustrate how I trade this formation.

First up: Micron Technologies $MU.

After a strong leg higher, $MU formed a textbook bull flag. I bought the $MU 7/18 $120 calls...

Today I closed a winning trade. Booked a gain. The kind of thing I tell others (and myself) to celebrate.

So why do I feel bad about it?

Maybe “bad” isn’t the right word. More like unsettled.

Here’s the situation:

The stock had started to break down a bit on the daily chart, so I followed my process and exited. Textbook move, right?

But here’s what’s bothering me…

The stock is still above its 50-day moving average.

It’s still in a hot sector.

And I had January 2027 calls. That’s over 18 months until expiration!

With that much time, why did I feel the need to micromanage?

This is one of those moments where the trade was technically breaking support, yes — but the bigger question I’m sitting with is: Did I kneecap this trade too early? Did I cut off a potential monster winner because I was too zoomed in?

My risk was defined. I could’ve ridden it longer.

Maybe smaller sizing would’ve helped me let it breathe?

Maybe I’m just overthinking? (I do that.)

But one reminder that helps bring me back to center:

I can always get back in.

Just...

Here's the replay and chartbook from the June 26 Weekly Strategy Session.

Be sure to join us on Thursday at 11 am ET and maximize your return potential.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLP.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Paychex $PAYX just delivered its worst earnings reaction ever, and here’s why it matters.

This $50B HR and payroll giant just posted its first double miss in decades. 

Revenue and earnings both came in below expectations, and the stock cratered in response.

This wasn’t just a bad quarter... It was a sharp deviation from one of the most consistent long-term compounders in the market.

The company has been a steady beneficiary of U.S. job growth and the formation of small businesses. 

But this report revealed cracks.

Client growth is stalling. 

Margins are under pressure. 

And the forward guidance didn’t give investors much reason for optimism.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for a stock known for defensive stability and reliable dividend growth.

The big question now: was this a one-off stumble, or the start of a longer-term deterioration?

We’re watching closely to see how the market digests this one. 

Because when dependable compounders start missing, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details...

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Vera Therapeutics $VERA – Director Patrick Enright just filed a $5.28 million Form 4.

That’s a huge insider buy in a high-flyer biotech name, and it follows closely on the heels of institutional inflows. Looks like the conviction is stacking on all fronts. 

📌 G-III Apparel Group $GIII – Director Victor Herrero Amigo picked up $110,000 worth of stock.

Like apparel, this stock hasn’t exactly been hot, but this kind of insider activity can mark a turning point, especially in cyclical names.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 25, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Vimeo Inc. $...

Today's number is... 8

That’s a new 8-month high for my custom Risk-On Index — and it just broke above a key trendline.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green line in the top panel is my custom Risk-On Index.
• The red line in the bottom panel is my custom Risk-Off Index.

The Takeaway:The Risk-On Index is a clean gauge of risk appetite that blends key assets like copper, high-yield bonds, the Aussie dollar, semiconductors, and high beta. 

And right now, it’s sending a clear message — buyers are getting aggressive.

Meanwhile, the Risk-Off Index is heading in the opposite direction. After failing to hold above a key support and resistance level, it’s rolling over again — but hasn’t yet broken below its own trendline.

Together, they signal a clear shift in positioning: away from defense and back toward risk.

The last time we saw this kind of dual confirmation was late 2022. That marked the start of a brand new bull market in equities. 

So, if the Risk-Off Index confirms with a...

As broad indexes push toward former highs, we're seeing a clear rotation down the risk curve.

Risk-on sectors—like Ark’s growth funds, crypto, and tech—are deep in the green. This kind of move signals growing investor appetite for risk and a bullish read on future market conditions.

A standout example: Ark’s flagship innovation ETF, $ARKK, is breaking out to new highs relative to the broader market.

After years of underperformance, this breakout marks a potential regime shift. Investors are beginning to reward risk again, and funds like ARKK are finally turning the page toward a possible long-term uptrend.

In short, risk is back. And those who lean into it are getting paid.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s that new all-time highs are a characteristic of bull markets.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now — fresh all-time highs popping up everywhere.

Some of the most important stocks on the planet are joining the list.

On one hand, we have JPMorgan Chase $JPM — the largest bank in the U.S and bellwether for the Financial sector. 

If this one’s breaking out, it’s tough to argue against the underlying strength and health of the market.

Then there’s Nvidia $NVDA, the biggest company in the world and the gate-keeper of the AI revolution. What more is there to say that we don’t already know?

After spending the past year moving sideways, digesting gains, the stock is breaking out to its highest level ever.

The team and I have been digging through our currency charts today, trying to figure out if we should trust these new lows in the Dollar Index.

And the truth is, there is plenty we could say about dollars right now, but I don’t think it would help.

The Dollar Index is going to go in the opposite direction of these bull flags in EUR and GBP.

It’s really that simple. 

And as far as other currencies go, I think we can expect them to follow the majors. Some of them are already breaking out. 

Remember, the major developed currencies started trending well against the dollar first, and then emerging currencies gradually followed. 

I expect that intermarket cadence will continue during the next wave of dollar weakness.

And it looks like it already is. Here’s the Euro and Pound resolving their coils higher against USD:

Both of these currencies ramped to fresh multi-year highs in April and have been consolidating in continuation patterns ever since.

This action reminds me of some of the ...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for the June 25 Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

PROGRAMMING ALERT: I’m launching a new weekly show on StockMarketTV.com called What Are My Options?

It’s a 30-minute(ish) show where I take your requests for options strategies on your favorite stocks. I’ll drop a lesson or two along the way, and sometimes I’ll just riff on the philosophy behind options trading.

The first episode airs Tuesday, July 1st at 3pm ET—and I’ll be doing it live every Tuesday after that. It’s meant to be interactive, so I hope you’ll join me!

Lately, I’m noticing more people talking about how the market has “come too far too fast.” Some are even licking their chops, ready to jump in short and try to catch what they’re sure will be an “epic reversal.”

This kind of talk makes me uncomfortable.

Not because I disagree that a pullback could happen — anything can happen. But because I know the psychology behind this kind of positioning. It’s not usually about...

Today's trade goes into the "Hard Trade" bucket. 

I'm buying a stock that has rocketed up 30%+ in just 7 trading days.

But... it has only just cleared overhead resistance which might be the "all-clear" signal from the control tower to ignite the rocket boosters.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed XLV (small win), IBB  (profit target), and XRT (small loss)
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Carnival Cruise Lines $CCL continues to show why it’s one of the top operators in global leisure travel.

The $33B cruise giant just reported a record-breaking quarter, posting the highest quarterly margins in nearly 20 years.

The market rewarded the results with a 6.9% rally, marking the company’s 5th positive earnings reaction in the last 7 quarters.

After being completely devastated during COVID, the travel industry is booming like never before.

Everything about this report was fantastic.

They're crushing it, and it’s a clear sign that U.S. consumers are still spending.

Despite the strength, the stock has gone nowhere for years. 

We think that could be changing soon...

*Click the image to enlarge it

Carnival $CCL had a +1.30 reaction score after reporting a double beat.

The company reported revenues of $6.33B, versus the expected $6.21B, and earnings per share of $0.35, versus the expected...