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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Homebuilders Are Still Missing the Party

June 20, 2025

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The market’s been handing out invitations left and right… and just about everyone has shown up.

Speculative growth, Semis, Industrials — even Energy has caught a bid.

It’s been a broad and steady move off the April lows. Almost everything’s working.

Almost.

One group that continues to sit on the sidelines? Homebuilders.

They’ve completely sat out this rally so far.

The SPDR Homebuilders ETF $XHB has done nothing — just hovering below the lower bounds of a nasty topping formation.

 

This zone also lines up with the 38.2% retracement from the 2022–2024 rally, adding to the confluence of interest here.

Homebuilders tend to be the life and soul of the party in bull markets.

These are some of the most economically sensitive names out there. When they’re trending higher, it usually means we’re in a healthy environment and investors are embracing risk.

So now what?

Are we betting Homebuilders...

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The Strazza Letter

The ARK Has Arrived

June 20, 2025

The major averages were lower this week, but it was still a win for the bulls.

Here’s why…

Since the market bottomed over two months ago, the best stocks have been the riskiest ones.

Of course, I’m talking about the impressive leadership from speculative growth.

We’ve seen this story before, though. We’ve actually already seen it several times in the current cycle.

Speculative tech was an area of standout leadership during the Q4 2023 rally.

The space also outperformed in a major way during the post-election ramp-up coming into the year.

But the momentum and relative strength didn’t last in either of those cases…

I think this time is different…

And the relative trend between the flagship ARK fund and the S&P is a big reason why:

 ...

The Bank Run You Want to Be In 🏦💰

June 20, 2025

There weren’t any S&P 500 earnings reactions yesterday…

However, one industry group continues to stand out: Regional Banks.

There are 346 tradeable Regional Bank stocks in the U.S., but most have been dead money, or worse, for years. 

Balance sheet stress, deposit flight, interest rate risk, and the absence of consolidation have weighed on the group.

We haven’t seen a wave of M&A to clean things up in decades. 

The weakest names are still out there, dragging down the averages like the S&P Regional Bank ETF $KRE.

And that’s why we built a custom Super Regional Bank Index - to isolate the quality. 

Our Super Regional Bank Index is at all-time highs 📈 

Our Super Regional Bank Index includes the top 25 Regional Banks by market capitalization. With loosening banking regulations, these names are poised to benefit from industry consolidation.

As you can see, the index is breaking above the 2018 peak for the first time. After over 7 years of no returns, this is the beginning of a brand-new uptrend.

You won't see that in the KRE, which has structurally broken...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/20/25

June 20, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in ITB.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Closed XHB at Profit Target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Robin the Hood

June 20, 2025

We just got a major insider buy this week – and this one really caught my eye.

It’s not just for the size, but for who’s buying and the stock itself.

For the first time ever, Robinhood $HOOD showed up on our Hot Corner radar.

Steve and I have been waiting for this moment for years.

Christopher Payne scooped up 26,500 shares at $74.18 – that’s a $2 million open-market buy.

His own money. No options. No restricted stock grants. Just pure conviction.

Payne joined Robinhood’s board back in December. Before that, he was the COO at DoorDash, CEO of Tinder, and held major leadership roles at Amazon, Microsoft, and eBay.

This guy knows tech. He knows growth. He knows the game.

And now, HOOD is breaking out above its post-IPO highs, completing a massive multi-year base.

 ...
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International Hall of Famers (06-20-2025)

June 20, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

Hot Corner Insider

The CEO and the CFO Are Buying $NUVB Shares

June 20, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Nuvation Bio $NUVB – The Chief Executive Officer, the Chief Financial Officer, the Chief Regulatory Officer, and the Chief People Officer all filed Form 4s totaling $1.1 million in open-market buys.

When nearly the entire executive suite steps in together, that’s not routine, it’s a full-team vote of confidence. 

📌 Primo Brands $PRMB – Viking Global just filed a 13G increasing its stake from 3.13% to 5.30%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 18, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 EchoStar Corp $SATS – Redwood Capital filed a 13G showing a bump from 4.10% to 5.10%.

A clean crossover into reporting...

All Star Charts Premium

Junior Hall of Famers (06-19-2025)

June 19, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

The Daily Number

Commodities With a Pulse🛢️

June 19, 2025

Today's number is... 13.44%

13.44% is the annualized return of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index when the 10-day moving average of its 40-day percent change is above the 120-day 

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:  

  • The candlesticks in the top panel show the S&P GSCI Commodity Index price.
  • The middle panel plots the 40-day percent change with 10-day (blue) and 120-day (orange) moving averages.
  • The black line in the bottom panel shows the spread between those two MAs.
  • Grey shading highlights periods when the 10-day average is above the 120-day.

The Takeaway: This tactical model doesn’t just track price.

It tracks the trend in momentum.

By smoothing the 40-day rate of change in the index, it identifies when strength is building or fading. 

When the 10-day average is above the 120-day, the model turns bullish. When it slips below, the model turns bearish.

When the momentum trend is...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Rising Commodity Prices Are Boosting One Sector

June 18, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview

 

Commodities have been steadily rising, adding upward pressure on inflation.

Most notably, crude oil prices have surged recently amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This supply risk has contributed to the sharp move higher in energy markets.

Further increases in commodity prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage its dual mandate — balancing inflation control with maintaining a strong labor market.

One sector that stands to benefit from these dynamics is Energy ($XLE). Notice how the recent rise in crude oil prices has coincided with a strong bid in energy stocks, as shown below.

 

 

Our Chief Market Strategist, Steve Strazza, joined our analyst Jason Perz and The Global Macro Edge author John Netto live yesterday to discuss the latest FOMC developments.

They shared many valuable insights — you can watch the full discussion...

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The Strazza Letter

Gobbling Up COIN Calls

June 18, 2025

“I’m gobbling up COIN calls.”

It’s what I told Breakout Multiplier members I was doing during last week’s strategy session.

Today, Coinbase stock rallied 16% after Congress passed the Genius Act, providing regulatory clarity for stablecoins. 

The company also announced the launch of a stablecoin payments stack for e-commerce platforms. The news tanked blue-chip payment names, Visa and Mastercard.

And that’s just the disruptive nature of this business. 

I think Coinbase is one of the most exciting long-term growth stories out there. 

They keep doing all the right things. And now that they finally have a clear and supportive regulatory backdrop, they can execute freely. 

But that’s why I own the common stock… 

The short-dated calls I’ve been pounding the table about have nothing to...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Nothing More Bullish Than a Breakdown Here

June 18, 2025

If you’ve been following me this year, you know I’m a big fan of using ratios to get a real read on market health and figure out what kind of environment we’re in.

It’s been one of the most consistent tools in my toolbox, and it’s worked all year.

One ratio I always come back to is staples versus the S&P 500. And I’m not alone — JC made it one of the key themes in his latest mid-month call with ASC Premium members.

 

It’s such a clean way to gauge risk appetite.

When investors are feeling good and leaning into risk, staples underperform, and the ratio moves lower. 

But when things get dicey, that line ticks higher as money rotates into safer, more defensive names.

The inverse relationship between stocks and staples-relatives has played out again and again across cycles.

Right now, this ratio is sitting on a key support level.

I can’t think of anything more bullish for equities...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

Currency Report: Ten Years In Malacca

June 18, 2025

The Singapore Dollar is roaring higher. 

After more than a decade of basing, the SGD/USD is finally punching through a key breakout level—the 61.8% retracement of its 2011–2020 decline.

This isn’t just another FX pair catching a bid. Singapore is one of the most critical currencies in global trade. The city-state controls the Strait of Malacca—a vital artery for global shipping. 

When the Singapore Dollar is strong, it's usually saying something about global trade flows, risk appetite, and Asia's relative strength on a global stage.

Singapore, plainly put, is the financial hub of Southeast Asia.

So it makes sense to see it break out as we continue to see rotation into EM, and Asia in particular– as well as weakness in the US Dollar.

 

Zooming out, this is a textbook rounding bottom. The long base. The range-bound price action. The upside resolution. This is classic trend reversal stuff.

And it’s not just the currency flashing a regime change.

Here are Singaporean equities overlaid with SGD:

 

EWS, the...

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (06-18-2025)

June 18, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...