This is the video recording of the September 22nd, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/22/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We don't get to choose the market environment.

Like it or not, the current one is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve. And the Fed is not alone. Almost every central bank around the world is raising rates – and doing so as quickly as possible.

The Fed raised rates by another 75 basis points at yesterday's FOMC meeting, bringing the year-to-date total to three percentage points of tightening. And they are not done yet. That was the message Chair Powell delivered and that was the message received, reluctantly at first, by the market. 

The four previous times that the Fed raised rates this year, the S&P 500 was up sharply on the day of the announcement, with daily gains ranging from 1.5% to 3.0%. Without those gains, S&P 500 would be down close to 30% YTD (versus the actual 20% decline). That changed yesterday, as the S&P 500 closed down 1.7% (after being up on the day going into the FOMC announcement).

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Bear markets bring out the worst in us.

Investors lose money and look to others to blame for their mistakes. It's human nature; it takes less mental fortitude to pin the blame on an externality rather than adopt responsibility and work on yourself.

In bear markets, conspiracies are born, and hatred is often devised.

"If it wasn't for the Fed, my equity curve would still be sloping up."

"Wall Street and the wealthy are conspiring to make me poorer."

In my short stint in this industry, I've noticed a lot of this self-destructive behavior.

One particular notion I've seen catch traction in recent days is that the CME Group -- operator of the world's largest financial derivatives exchange -- is actively trying to suppress Bitcoin from global adoption.

The theory goes like this...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Yesterday was all about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

I kept my trades tight, as I didn't want to trade after the rate decision. And, as everybody saw, it was just way too volatile in the afternoon.

What a whipsaw that was -- the $SPY rallying up to 389 then dropping down to 377.

Today’s Hot List is a short one.

Sometimes the best course of action ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting is to sit on the sidelines until the dust settles.

This is exactly what insiders have done this week, as there’s been little activity in recent days, and almost none yesterday.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

 In our cyclical portfolio, we are shifting our global equity exposure, shortening the maturity of our fixed income exposure and getting out of the way of the break down in gold.

Eventually, even thick skulls like mine get the point.

Pretty much all summer long, the team here at All Star Charts has been mentioning Enphase Energy $ENPH as a strong outperformer that is on the verge of a potential epic breakout. During today's internal Analyst meeting, the team agreed that now is finally the time to get involved.

JC and I did a video on a possible trade in $ENPH ahead of today's Fed Reserve Interest Rates announcement. We did just get into it moments ago. Enjoy this video to get a great idea of why we like this trade and how we'll play it:

A Bull Phase for Enphase Energy? @allstarcharts https://t.co/INbp6CH827

— Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 (@chicagosean) September 21, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: With last month’s rally behind us and the June lows quickly approaching, investor attitudes are beginning to sour. Bears on the II survey now outnumber bulls for the first time since mid-July, and the Consensus bulls continue to decline. Despite this pessimism, investors have been slow to take action. They have kept equity exposure elevated and equity ETFs actually saw $20B of inflows last week (after the two preceding weeks saw $11B of outflows). Increased pessimism at this point is the most significant sentiment risk for stocks. Investors (and their portfolios) have been bruised by a perceived lack of alternatives to stocks but with short-term bond yields now at their highest levels that could be changing.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Safe Havens Haven’t Been Safe

Anything can happen over the final 3+ months of the year, but so far 2022 has been a disappointing year on many fronts for most investors. The portfolio drawdown experienced by the average...

This is the video recording of our September 21, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

There's no denying our rather cautious approach to crypto markets as of late.

Bitcoin's hanging on by a thread. And the broader trend in risk markets has been lower, in a messy fashion.

So, given this backdrop, what's to be said about crypto-related equities?

Markets trade in cycles.

We've seen these cycles play out over and over again throughout many decades.

But how do we profit from it all?

Well, for me, I like to use seasonal tendencies to help put the current market environment into context.

It's not about today and tomorrow, and it's not about next year. Where are we right now?

Our Cycle Composite does a good job of helping us put together a road map for this market's cycle.

On the left side of this chart we have the 2021 seasonal trends and on the right we have the 2022 trends.

Last year's composite includes every year since 1950, every post election year since 1950 and every year ending in 1, to include the decennial cycle. Look how closely last year's actual results mirrored the composite:

The most significant insider activity on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Douglas A. Pepper, director of Braze Inc $BRZE.

Pepper reported a purchase worth roughly $14 million.

This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• What's the Bear Case?
• One of worst starts to year for 60/40 portfolio in history
• The impact of the US Dollar on Stocks
• No lows list peaked 3 months ago
• Best time to buy stocks in the 4 year cycle
• Bearish sentiment persists
• ARKK and Biotech stopped falling in May
• S&P500 stuck below resistance 4100-4200
• European Banks show relative strength
• Midstream Stocks Breaking out - the full list
• Corn, Soybeans and Wheat with huge bases
• Silver bullish divergence vs Gold
• Other Emerging Markets outpacing China
• Small-cap Industrials stocks that are breaking out
• 1-yr yield highest roc in 40 years
• The Flippening Is Real
• List of best trade ideas

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is on cruise control with nothing ahead but an open road.

The few obstacles that stood in its way are falling to the wayside. That’s right – the handful of commodity currencies that have refused to roll over during the past six months are beginning to slip.

Before we get to these fresh breakdowns, let’s set the scene with two currencies that have been anything but resilient – the euro and the British pound.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Inflation fight being waged on a global basis
• Rate expectations have been unanchored 
• Effects of tighter policy already being felt

Higher rates and tighter central banks are a global phenomenon this year. In fact, the Fed is one of a dozen central banks meeting this week and a majority are expected to raise rates, again. Both the breadth and intensity of rate hikes are pretty much unprecedented. That doesn’t even get into quantitative tightening in the US. The Fed’s balance sheet is 10-times as large as it was two decades ago and has only begun to shrink (the 26-week change just turned negative last month).

Expectations for the Fed are drifting higher. Futures have now priced in 100 basis points of tightening this year than the Fed thought would be necessary when it released its last dot plot (in June). Tomorrow’s updated economic projections and expected path of rates will receive at least as much scrutiny as an actual rate hike that gets announced. 

Stocks are struggling...