Today's number is... 1.81%

1.81% is the average year-to-date return of an S&P 500 stock in 2025.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500's year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 hasn't exactly advanced much in 2025.

It’s up just 2.11% year-to-date.

And the average stock is doing even less, sitting at 1.81%.

This isn’t the kind of backdrop where you can throw darts and expect to win.

It’s been a high-volatility, choppy, and highly selective environment.

Average stock returns across sectors paint a messy picture. 

The average stock in Energy and Consumer Discretionary is down nearly 3%.

Even the traditionally strong Technology sector has seen average returns of just 4.5%.

Communication Services and Utilities lead the way...

Last week, we pointed to the outperformance of large caps over small caps. But interestingly, we've seen both Micro Caps $IWC and Small Cap Growth $IWO transition from red to green on the ETF Power Rankings this week.

On further inspection, there's a fascinating setup that could be developing.

Small Cap Growth $IWO is failing to hold its breakdown relative to Large Cap Growth $IWF. When this line is moving lower (as it has been for a while), it means small cap growth is underperforming large cap growth.

But if this breakdown fails, it would indicate this line could quickly shoot higher.

In other words - small cap growth could be on the verge of an explosive move higher.

The smallest growth stock tend to be very speculative; companies that have not fully proven that they can follow through on their promises, businesses that have long duration on cash flows to pay back their investors, and a lot of operational and market risk.

It's for this reason that they're also highly volatile.

If they can follow through, investors get very rich.

If they do not, they get...

We have been talking about a major rotation in the metals space for months, and now it’s happening in real time.

Platinum is ripping... We just got long.

Dr. Copper is knocking on the door of new all-time highs. We outlined the breakout and target levels to watch on Friday.

And now, Silver is sprinting...

It’s up more than 30% off last month’s low and just printed a fresh multi-decade high.

We think this move is just getting started, and a run at the 1980 / 2011 peak near $50 is officially in play.

Here’s how we're trading it.

All things equal, I want the one that shook out the weak hands… before it left the station.

I want the one that bears had a clean chance to bury… but couldn’t.

I want the one that just trapped the shorts… then squeezed higher.

Bull hooks. Bear traps. Scoop ‘n scores. Shakeouts.

These are all powerful patterns, and are all similar because they are centered on the same thing…

Failed moves.

This is when price violates a key level and quickly reverses in the opposite direction.

“From failed moves come fast moves” is how I learned it.

And that’s exactly what is happening with Bitcoin $BTC right now. Here’s a look:

BTC ramped from about 75k to north of 110k in a matter of five weeks off the April lows.

...

Sign up for my free note here.

If you’ve been following along, you already know the offense is on the field.

$ARKK is resolving higher from a bull flag, small caps are back in gear, and Bitcoin is flirting with all-time highs.

All of this speaks to a positive environment for risk appetite.

And today, it’s been all about space and exploration — at least in my trading account. 

These stocks are mooning. Pun intended.

The ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF $ARKX just printed fresh all-time highs...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended June 6, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Today's trade is in a silver miner that has already had a great run, but could surprise everyone by further doubling from here.

Buying after a big run is always hard, psychologically, and today is no different. So I'm going to take some of the sting out of the purchase with a creative spread and aggressive rolling strategy.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to ARKK position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Broadcom $AVGO continues to reinforce its place among the market’s top compounders.

The $1.1T semiconductor and infrastructure software giant just posted another double beat. 

Despite the beat, the stock traded down 5% in reaction to the news, showing that expectations were high heading into the event. 

But context matters.

Zooming out, the stock has been rewarded for 17 of its last 22 earnings reports. That kind of consistency is rare, especially at this scale.

What makes the company's story so compelling is its multi-engine business model. 

On one side, it powers global connectivity with networking chips, broadband, and custom silicon. In addition, they provide critical infrastructure for cloud, telecom, and AI data centers. 

On the other hand, it offers a high-margin software platform anchored by the VMware acquisition, generating sticky recurring revenue across enterprise systems.

This blend of hardware scale and software stability has helped them become one of the most reliable long-term performers in the market.

The recent pullback may have caught attention, but the bigger story remains intact......

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Abacus Life $ABL – The co-founder and President Sean McNealy as well as CFO Bill McCauley stepped in with Form 4s to scoop up shares of their stock as it finds support off its all-time low.   

📌 Keurig Dr Pepper $KDP – Director Michael Van de Ven filed a Form 4 for half a million dollars of his company’s stock. This purchase comes as the beverage giant trades smack in the middle of a four and a half year range. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 6, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Deckers Outdoor Corp $DECK – Director Cindy Davis scooped up $200,000 worth of the shoemaker’s stock....

It's difficult to form much of a bearish thesis on stocks when global markets look as attractive as they do right now.

Notice that the United States is just a mere stones throw from all-time highs, yet it's in the bottom half of our ETF Power Rankings table. And this is for a simple reason: many global markets are already well into price discovery while the U.S. is still below its highs.

American investors have been rewarded favorably for their overexposure to their home country for the last 15-years. But there's meaningful data to suggest that increasing exposure toward Europe, Australasia, and the Far East will do better in this new environment.

We are witnessing a generational breakout in global stocks right now.

It's these breakouts that precede years of price discovery and outperformance.

There's a generational transfer of capital from the U.S. and into developed markets around the world, and it's more pertinent than ever to consider these opportunities shaping up.

Today's number is... 100

100 high-quality stocks quietly pushing the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ) to fresh all-time highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows the price of the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ).

The Takeaway: When high-quality stocks take the lead, it means the rally has real substance. 

This isn’t about hype or speculative moonshots. 

SPHQ tracks 100 S&P 500 names with strong profits, low debt, and clean balance sheets — and they’re breaking out.

Names like Visa, Mastercard, Intuit, ADP, and Paychex are all hitting all-time highs. 

These aren’t flashy trades — they’re consistent leaders. 

That kind of strength signals depth, not dazzle.

It also marks a shift in psychology. 

Early risk-on phases start with junky momentum. Then comes value and cyclicals. But when quality takes over, it’s often the most durable stage. Investors are bullish — just smarter about where they’re putting capital.

This isn’t a FOMO rally. It’s...

Short sellers are getting squeezed, and it’s plain to see.

They’ve been caught offside and are being forced to cover their positions.

They’re feeling the pain, and that’s exactly when we like to strike with our Freshly Squeezed strategy.

Here's our latest scan: 

As you can see, Phathom Pharma $PHAT, Applied Digital $APLD, and LZ Technology $TZMH are at the top of the leaderboard. 

Over the last 10 trading sessions, they've rallied 110.9%, 85.3%, and 66.9%, respectively.

Our long Sezzle $SEZL trade has also been ripping higher. The stock is up over 50% since we got long last month.

We also have tables sorted by short interest and days-to-cover.

Now, let's discuss today's setup and why we...

Another week of earnings, another batch of signals from the market.

The market reactions told us plenty whether companies beat, missed, or landed somewhere in the middle.

In this week’s recap, we’re covering the key reactions from last week and previewing the setups we’re focused on heading into next week.

• Monday:
  • Costco $COST reported a double beat and rallied 3.1% on the news. The stock is now hovering near all-time highs.
  • Dell Technologies $DELL posted mixed results and slipped 2.1% in response to it. The market has punished the stock for 5 of the last 7 earnings reports.
• Tuesday:
  • No earnings reactions in the S&P 500, but we spotlighted Toast $TOST, one of our favorite up-and-coming Software leaders.
  • After turning EBITDA positive for the first time and completing a multi-year base, the stock looks poised...

We got some nice feedback on our top-down scan from last weekend so I think we’ll make it a regular thing.

This is a clear and simple leadership scan, which is why I like it so much. 

We are drilling down to a trade idea following the traditional top down approach. It doesn’t get any better than that. 

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week, Materials is the big standout—jumping two spots in our sector rankings. It’s no surprise. Commodities are on a tear and participation is expanding. This means we should expect more materials stocks to start working. And we’re already seeing it. 

Upon digging deeper, we found Metals & Mining stocks have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the sector....

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and there’s always a fresh batch of standout moves worth watching.

Here’s this week’s most notable activity:

The most intriguing insider activity this week came in SharpLink Gaming $SBET. 

Both the CEO Rob Phythian and CFO Robert DeLucia filed Form 4s, purchasing a combined $300,000 worth of stock. 

This comes as the company pivots away from gambling and toward a digital asset treasury strategy.

Since announcing their shift to an Ethereum-based treasury model, similar to the Bitcoin playbook used by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, the stock has exploded — up over 3,500% in the past two weeks.

The insider buys only reinforce the conviction behind this dramatic corporate transformation. We’ll keep it on our radar and watch to see if this move sticks. 

This week was all about the bull flags.

Bonds dug in where they needed to recently.

International equities keep grinding higher with broadening participation.

And then we have the US indexes, which have been sideways, in high and tight fashion, since mid-May.

That changed this week…

The bulls got what they needed as a long list of these coils resolved higher.

We’ve been particularly interested in speculative growth, and ARKK is a great example of this bull flag theme, so let’s go there:

This is the same pattern we are seeing all over right now. A big time advance off the April lows into a 3-4 week continuation pattern.

And if there’s one thing we know about continuation patterns it is that their resolution should mark the continuance of the preceding price trend. Well, that...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Aerospace & Defense is dominating right now.

The ETF tracking this sector, $ITA, is up 12% in just the last month, powering its way to all-time highs with impressive momentum.

Check out the explosive upside on the chart.

Breaking down the biggest contributors:

• General Electric ($GE) – 21.04% weight
• RTX Corporation ($RTX) – 12.42% weight
• Boeing ($BA) – 9.94% weight

But it’s not just these giants pushing $ITA higher. Several smaller, lesser-weighted names (top left quadrant) are posting significant year-to-date gains.

Here’s a scatter plot of each component’s ETF weighting vs. YTD return.

While the broader market struggles to reclaim pre-tariff highs, Aerospace & Defense has blown past them.

And when you see relative strength like this, it rarely fades quickly.

A great example of this is the commodities complex. Gold is up +26% YTD and +43% over the last year.

This is a trend that's far from exhausting.

Our Chief Market Strategist, Steve Strazza, is hosting an...