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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Energy’s Setting Up

June 6, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

The commodity complex continues to shape up.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s note, metals tend to lead the cycle—and that’s exactly what we’re seeing. 

Gold’s ripping, silver’s breaking out, and strength is building across the space.

If these moves hold, it’s not a matter of if energy joins the party, but when.

That’s just how the cycle flows. Gold, then the rest of the metals, then energy.

Gasoline’s holding firm, and crude’s lack of downside follow-through has me thinking a scoop n’ score is imminent.

 

I’m watching closely for energy to dig in and start showing leadership off these key...

The Strazza Letter

Silver vs Gold Never Gets Old

June 6, 2025

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the breakout that was brewing in silver

And it wasn’t just about the price action in gold.

There were finally other signals emerging and suggesting higher prices for the precious metal. We just needed to see if those trends had legs. 

The silver/gold ratio is everything when it comes to risk appetite. It’s the oldest intermarket indicator in the world of commodities. Here’s what I said about it:

“If I end up being right about silver, we’re going to see the silver/gold ratio fail this breakdown and scoop higher”.

The writing was already on the wall for an epic bear trap, and this week it fired. 

The silver/gold ratio just had one of its best weeks in history and failed this topping pattern with authority. 

 ...
All Star Charts Premium

International Hall of Famers (06-06-2025)

June 6, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

(Commodities Weekly) Is The Rotation Real? 📉📈

June 6, 2025
ICYMI: The Commodities Playbook is Out 🎥

We just hosted a live breakdown of all the major commodity futures, including Copper, Gold, Cocoa, Crude, and more. 

From what’s breaking out, what’s lagging, and how we’re positioning.

If you trade commodities, this is must-see TV.

📺 Watch the full replay below 👇

 

We’ve talked at length about Gold’s breakout

But everyone has forgotten about Copper and other industrial metals.

Copper isn’t just some industrial input. It’s the backbone of the modern economy.

The price has gone nowhere for decades. But over that time, it has carved out a massive accumulation pattern that looks ready to explode higher.

This is a trade we’ve been preparing for, and it may finally be here.

Gold made its move...
All Star Options

When Active Management Backfires: Lessons from a CCJ Trade

June 6, 2025

Back in October, I put on a bullish position in Cameco ($CCJ). It was a diagonal call calendar spread: I bought January 2026 $80 calls and sold December 2024 $65 calls against them, paying a net debit of $3.50.

The idea was pretty straightforward: I wanted to own the long-dated $80 calls, but I wanted them cheaper—so I financed them by selling front-month calls.

Had I done nothing after that—just sat on my hands—the short December calls would’ve expired worthless, and I’d still be holding the January 2026s. I’d be down about $1.25 on the trade today. Not ideal, but manageable.

But I didn’t do nothing.

As CCJ started to slide in November, I began actively managing the position. I rolled the short calls five separate times, each time pushing them out to a later month and collecting a bit more premium. Each roll chipped away at my initial cost basis:

 

By April 16, I had reduced my downside risk so much that the entire campaign had flipped into a 77-cent net credit!. If CCJ continued to go nowhere or down, all my options would eventually expire worthless and I’d actually walk away a small winner...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Taming a Wild Ride

June 6, 2025

 

Today's trade is in a biotech stock. And the word "biotech" should cue thoughts of "risky" and "volatile."

And this trade is no exception. So I'm going to get creative, utilizing a spread to lower my cost of participation, define my risk, and give me two paths to profitability. 

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/6/25

June 6, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling XLC to July options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Whiskey Can’t Save This Chart 🍹

June 6, 2025

Brown-Forman $BF.B just reported a double miss, and the market didn’t hold back.

Shares dropped nearly 18%, marking the worst earnings reaction in company history.

This isn’t an overreaction. It’s a reflection of deepening concerns about the company’s fundamentals.

Organic sales growth is slowing, margins are compressing, and iconic brands like Jack Daniel’s are struggling to maintain momentum in an increasingly competitive and cost-sensitive environment. 

What used to be seen as a premium, defensive name in consumer staples is now being priced more like a challenged value trap.

Even before this report, sentiment had been weakening. 

The stock has been punished for 8 of the last 12 earnings reports, a sign that investor confidence has been eroding for quarters.

Until management proves it can regain margin control and reignite consistent demand growth, things will continue worsening.

So what else did we learn from this earnings report? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings stats for BF.B 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

Brown-Forman had a -7.34...

Macke's Retail Roundup,
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Lulu Whiffs! Report Card

June 6, 2025

I told you Lululemon had its work cut out for it when it reported earnings Thursday night but I didn't think it would be quite this bad. With shares off 20% you can bet value shoppers will at least try to protect old lows of ~$250 for this once beloved fashion pioneer. Should you Buy the Dip or Run Away? 

 

Check out my Earnings Report Card for LULU before you decide.

 

Hot Corner Insider

Director Robotti Reports a $1 Million $TDW Purchase

June 6, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Tidewater Inc $TDW – Director Robert Robotti disclosed a Form 4 transaction for $1 million worth of his company’s stock. 

This is his fifth purchase this year and it comes as the stock finds footing at a key level of support. 

📌 Pangea Logistics Solutions Ltd $PANL – Strategic Shipping Inc stepped in with a near half-million-dollar purchase in the marine logistics company.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 5, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Oric Pharmaceuticals $ORIC – SR One Capital Management, a biotechnology venture capital firm, has taken an interest in this issue with an original...

The Daily Number

Turns Out the Rest of the World Still Exists🌏

June 6, 2025

Today's number is... 10

The ACWI vs US Industry Group Trend Spread just hit a 10-year high in favor of global markets.

Here’s the chart:

 

The Takeaway: Global markets haven't looked this strong relative to the US in a long time.

Actually, this is the highest level we have seen in 10 years.

Here’s how I measure trend strength using my custom trend scoring system.

I score every ticker on a scale of 0 to 4:

  • The 10-week moving average is rising
  • The 40-week moving average is rising
  • The 10-week MA is above the 40-week MA
  • Price is above the 10-week MA

Each check gets a point. 

Four out of four = strong uptrend.

I apply this to 42 countries from the ACWI and 72 US industry groups — 24 each from the S&P 500, 400, and 600.

Once I’ve scored everything, I take the average trend score for both groups and calculate the spread. Then I smooth it with a 10-week moving average.

So why does this matter?

The spread just hit a 10-year high. 

It's not a fluke. 

...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Crypto Stocks Near All Time Highs

June 5, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview

 

Another week, another crypto-focused note—because the relative strength in this space is too strong to ignore.

Both crypto stock ETFs on our thematic list—BITQ and BLOK—have completed their transitions from red to green. That’s a clear signal of accelerating relative strength.

The Amplify Transformation Data Sharing ETF ($BLOK) allocates at least 80% of its assets to companies actively building and deploying blockchain technologies. On a total return basis, it’s now pressing against a historic breakout.

 

 

If Bitcoin clears its all-time highs, we're targeting a 50% move to $155,000.

In that scenario, these stocks are primed to capture the upside.

All Star Charts Premium

Junior Hall of Famers (06-05-2025)

June 5, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

Bart's Charts

IBM - is the bull run almost complete?

June 5, 2025

Have been playing w/ IBM for a while. You can 'search' IBM on the page or this is a pretty good link to show some interesting vibrations/waves w/in IBM. Frankly, I had forgotten about some of the work I had done on IBM.

Need to slow down ... https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/25/ibm-february-25-2023/

Anyway, IF long IBM THEN look at taking some profit per the target below or tighten the stop. Or, SHORT IBM and get out once price goes above 286.50. Remember, folks, it's all probability sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. 

 
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Silver’s Ready to Rock

June 5, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

Commodities are waking up.

Gold kicked things off — like it always does. It’s been stair-stepping higher for months, leading the charge and telling the world to start paying attention to this space.

Now silver’s stepping up.

I’ve been waiting for this one for a while. And it finally looks like the breakout is underway. .

Silver is resolving from a massive base and pushing to levels we haven’t seen in over 13 years. 

 

A decisive move above 35 could open the path toward those old all-time highs near 50.

If you want to know what silver could look like in the coming months, just look at gold.

Gold already made the...