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If US Dollar Index below 105, Buy Stocks!

March 13, 2023

Historically they’re all usually just making a big deal about things that are not a big deal.

It's their job to make noise. And in some cases, it's not even their job, humans just like to overreact and make a lot of noise.

As investors, it's our job to ignore.

We don't care about their fed policies. We're not interested in arguing about wars. I don't care who the president is. And a "bank crisis" is laughable these days, compared to what I had a front row seat to back in 2008.

They make noise. We ignore. It's that simple.

Late last week when people were panicking, I was right here telling you we wanted to buy stocks.

Why?

Because in bull markets, it pays well to own stocks.

Besides, the Dollar was falling apart. So if stocks were about to collapse and this was 1929 all over again (lol btw), then the...

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The Hall of Famers (03-10-2023)

March 11, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then,...

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Why Friday’s Energy Bounce Has More Upside

March 11, 2023

Energy commodities are holding up despite last week’s selling pressure.

No, I’m not talking about natural gas – that rope snapped months ago.

But the rest of the main players – crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline – rebounded heading into the weekend. And when I look at the charts, Friday’s strength might be the beginning of a more sustained advance for energy.

Check out the equal-weight energy index:

It’s finding support where I would expect – the prior-cycle highs from 2018 and a key retracement level off the 2020 low.

Notice the index found support at this level in late 2021. This is the polarity principle in action.

A bounce here makes sense for energy contracts. It doesn’t mean they will, of course.

The index is also retesting a...

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Here’s Why Banks Are Breaking

March 10, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US bank stocks big and small took a beating Thursday, with the Bank ETF $KBE posting its largest single-day decline since 2020.

The steep sell-off came on the heels of Silicon Valley Bank’s $SIVB Wednesday announcement of a $1.8B loss, mainly due to accepting unrealized losses in US Treasuries.

Based on SIVB’s acute exposure to the tech industry, you can argue larger banks with more diversified portfolios and clients don’t carry the same risk. And they don’t.

Regardless, the next chart reveals a storm brewing beneath the surface...

Check out bank stocks (KBE inverted) overlaid with the US Treasury 2s10s spread:

I inverted KBE to highlight the strong relationship between banks and the yield curve. The two lines look almost identical over longer timeframes.

The main takeaway: Banks do not fare well when the shorter end of the curve outpaces the longer end.

Why? They hold heaps of government debt across the curve – especially shorter durations. 

...
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Young Aristocrats (March 2023)

March 9, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix,...

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The Short Report (03-08-2023)

March 8, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

[Options] Materially Sideways?

March 8, 2023

Today's trade is going to leverage the rising volatilities introduced into the stock market this week thanks to testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman (I've been told).

When markets get dicey and volatility rises, I like to look at my universe of Sector ETFs and choose one that is both displaying higher relative options prices than its peers and looks set up for rangebound trading action over the next 3-5 weeks.

An ETF near the top of my list is the Materials sector ETF $XLB. We're going to bet on the recent sloppy trading action to continue sideways for a bit, and we're going to sell a delta-neutral spread to collect premium and position ourselves to earn the decay.

March Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

March 7, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our March Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.