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This Will Cause So Much Pain

March 17, 2024

Are you prepared for a market environment where Commodities are ripping higher and stocks continue to struggle?

Don't worry, most people are not.

In fact, so few people are prepared for this line to go up, and so much pain will be felt by so many (investors or otherwise), that this is exactly the outcome I'm betting on.

Higher Rates = Opposite of Lower Rates

March 16, 2024

Have you heard that stocks are going up in anticipation of lower interest rates?

Me too.

That's hilarious isn't it?

What about all those journalists?

Are they feeding you the same garbage?

Yup!

How about the Biden?

This guy is still the President of the United States. And he's telling you that rates are going down.

Have any of these people even bothered to look?

Or are they just lying to you?

Neither is an acceptable answer.

The U.S. 10-year Yield just went out yesterday at the highest weekly close since November.

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International Hall of Famers (03-15-2024)

March 15, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Copper and Gold and Palladium, Oh My!

March 15, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are working.

Gold is printing new all-time highs. Copper is trading above four bucks. And Palladium

Well, Palladium has stopped going down.

Considering Palladium’s Commitment of Traders (COT) profile, its tendency to trend with technology stocks, and where it stopped falling…

It’s time to buy!

Check out the long-term Palladium chart stretching back to the late 70s:

Palladium is bouncing off a critical extension level based on the early 1980s decline — a level that acted as resistance for almost two decades.

The...

US Consumer Hurting Badly

March 15, 2024

In today's edition of "This is NOT 2023", here is the U.S. Large-cap Consumer Discretionary Sector breaking down to new 52-week lows relative to the rest of the market.

You can see yesterday's edition here: Energy Stocks Lead US Markets

This isn't 2023. It's a completely different market.

Take a look at this chart below.

New 52-week lows.

Growth vs. Value at a Crossroads

March 14, 2024

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

One of the major themes we’re monitoring closely right now is the Growth vs Value relationship.

While Growth has dominated for the past couple of quarters, the technical setup suggests it may be time for value to take the lead.

The chart below shows the ratio testing a critical area of former resistance from above.

This is NOT 2023

March 14, 2024

In the latest example of, "This is not 2023", take look at what Energy stocks have been doing.

And I'm not talking about Coal and Uranium.

Specifically, the Oil & Gas Services, Producers & Explorers and the Integrated names are all outperforming.

This did not happen last year.

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (03-13-2024)

March 14, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As most of you know, we use various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market...

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Get Used to a Range-Bound Dollar

March 13, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is outshining the dollar.

The greenback doesn’t know which way to go, as FX markets offer traders little in the way of breakouts.

Instead of reviewing the chopfest, playing devil’s advocate, and weighing the lack of evidence for a near-term directional bias, let’s turn to a trending market for insight into the dollar.

Spoiler alert: It’s shiny, yellow, and trading at new all-time highs.

Yes, I’m referring to Gold.

Gold and the US dollar hold a classic intermarket relationship — an overt negative correlation. 

As I reviewed the charts this weekend, another pattern emerged between the two. 

I decided to offset Gold ahead of the dollar by roughly two to four years. After adjusting the charts, I landed on setting Gold forward by 130 weeks (approximately two-and-a-half years).

And voila:

...

Small-caps Do The Running Man

March 12, 2024

The Small-cap stock indexes haven't been able to make any progress all year.

But not every Small-cap Index is created equal.

Let's take a look at the two most popular:

Russell2000 Small-cap Index & S&P600 Small-cap Index.