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January 29, 2024

We got stopped out of a Wells Fargo trade a couple of weeks ago, and it looks like that was the whipsaw it needed to shake weak hands out. And since I was shaken out, I consider myself among the weak hands squad. I'm ok with that.

But given what we've seen since we were stopped out, we're getting back in for another try. This time, with tighter risk management and a longer runway.

When Does This Bull Market End?

January 29, 2024

The S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 all went out last week at new all-time highs. Again.

We're now officially in Month #20 of this bull market that began in June of 2022.

We've seen some corrections along the way, and my bet is that we see more of them this year.

One could argue that stocks have already been correcting over the past 6 weeks.

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[Premium] Details For February 2024 Monthly Strategy Session

January 29, 2024

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday February 5th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

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Crude Triggers a Buy Signal

January 26, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks aren’t the only assets catching a bid.

Commodities are, too. 

Despite their current rallies, the average investor isn’t concerned with cocoa, cotton, and lean hog futures

I get it… What do lean hog futures have to do with Tesla $TSLA?

But Dr. Copper – with its Ph.D. in economics – is ripping higher this week. 

And crude oil is trading above our risk level outlined last month.

Check out crude oil futures slicing through the 75 level:

Kudos to those who took the signal, as it’s over a third of the way to our target of 83. 

Crude is up 0.75% today alone, heading into the close with an intra-day high of 78.21. I like seeing strength heading into Friday’s close, as it often spills into the following week.

I imagine crude will hit our target within the next few weeks.

...
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The Hall of Famers (01-26-2024)

January 26, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by their proximity to new 52-week highs.

This leaves us...

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Tracking the Bounce in Interest Rates

January 26, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

High-yield bonds are printing fresh highs relative to US Treasuries – signs of a healthy risk appetite. 

Bond market volatility is collapsing, allowing equities to take center stage. 

And interest rates are trending lower since peaking last October.

But looking ahead to next month, we could see rates correct higher.

The US 10-year yield tends to rise in February – more so than any other month of the year except April:

It would make sense for this seasonal trend to continue.

The 10-year yield dropped more than 100 basis points during Q4 last year. 

The Fed’s hiking cycle has desensitized many to the large swings in treasury yields. Nevertheless, that’s a significant move for the US benchmark.

A retracement in the coming weeks compliments a more prolonged decline over the coming months and quarters as...

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Junior International Hall of Famers (01-25-2024)

January 26, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let's dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

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The Short Report (01-24-2024)

January 24, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

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Under the Hood (01-22-2024)

January 22, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended January 19, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

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Gold Miners Hit a New Relative Low

January 22, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

First, gold failed to hold its breakout to new all-time highs.

Then, the silver-to-gold ratio undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

Now, the Gold Miners ETF $GDX is printing a new all-time low versus the broader market!

Is there any sane reason to bet on the miners right now?

Let’s take a look…