If you've been paying attention this year, you've likely heard about failed tops. They've been everywhere, teasing traders with bearish setups that never materialize. 

Here's how it usually plays out. When support breaks, short-sellers rush to pile on, driving prices lower. But then, the market pulls a fast one. Prices creep back above those broken supports, squeezing shorts and forcing them to cover. Meanwhile, the longs panic, rushing to re-enter.

The latest chatter has been about a potential head-and-shoulders top in Nvidia $NVDA. But let's be real—the bulls are taking back control, and this setup is looking more and more like another false alarm.

Here are three key levels I’m watching in the coming days:

• The VWAP from the August 5th lows at $126.50: This level is the bulls' final line of defense. Prices rebounded from it last week, but a clear break below could trigger a much sharper decline.
• The neckline of the pattern at $132: Price is currently holding above this level, keeping the bias to the upside and the bulls in the...

With downside volatility picking up this week, some of you might be wondering if we are on the cusp of a significant market downturn, or is this just another dip that buyers will eventually step into?

It’s worth remembering that every big move starts small, but not every small move turns into something bigger. 

That’s where credit spreads come into play—they act as a reliable barometer of market health, offering insights into investor sentiment and risk appetite.

One effective way to measure them is by analyzing the ratio of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG to the Treasury Bond ETF $IEI.

When investors are willing to take on more risk, this ratio typically trends higher. On the other hand, when caution takes over and safety becomes the priority, credit spreads widen, and this ratio declines.

Currently...

While most uptrends have come under pressure in December, the rally in US Dollars has remained strong.

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been climbing in a near-vertical line since it bottomed at the lower bounds of its range three months ago.

Today, DXY is attempting to break out of a base as it trades at its highest level in over two years.

A decisive breakout in the dollar could shift the tide and put significant pressure on risk assets.

As long as the DXY holds above the critical 107.50 level, stock market bulls are on high alert.

Dollar headwinds are the last obstacle stocks want to face heading into the holidays.

Today was a bloodbath for stocks. 

Bears showed up after the FOMC announcement, and the market got sold aggressively with every sector finishing lower on the day.

The S&P 500 plunged 2.95%, its worst drop in over two years. Small-caps, banks, and industrials have now given back all of their post-election gains, joining a growing list of groups to do this.

And the VIX spiked sharply, recording its second-largest single-day move in history.

On days like today, analysts are checking under the hood and assessing market internals to see how significant the damage is.

Here’s one of my go-to charts for this. It shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month lows:

New lows are expanding over shorter timeframes, hinting at growing weakness under the surface. Today marked the highest reading in the percent of 1-month lows since March 2023.

From time to time, I like to play devil's advocate as part of an exercise to identify potential wrenches and better understand the market environment we might be heading into.

One "cheat code" I've picked up over the years is to assess Consumer Staples stocks on a relative basis.

As the ultimate defensive sector, Staples are the safe-haven that investors hide out in when the broader market comes under pressure.

So far this cycle, we haven't seen investors run to these stocks for safety. That said, the ratio is at a critical juncture as we speak.

The chart below highlights Consumer Staples $XLP relative to the S&P 500 $SPY, currently at a major support level marked by the dot-com bubble lows.

While XLP/SPY is testing a logical area where buyers might step in, we have yet to see any reversal activity.

If XLP/SPY starts to catch a bid here, it could signal defensive rotation, and...

Today, while chatting with Sam, we discussed our bullish outlook on Tesla and its potential for more disruptive innovation in the future.

It’s incredible how things once seen as science fiction or “only in the movies,” are becoming reality. 

Elon Musk resembles a real-world Tony Stark or a Star Wars visionary, turning far-out ideas into groundbreaking new technologies.

But this isn’t about Musk or our fundamental outlook on the company — the chart setup couldn’t look any better.

The risk for TSLA is skewed heavily to the upside above those old highs.

Tesla spent the past three years building a massive base within the context of a structural uptrend.

Over the past two months, price has surged in a near-vertical line. Last week, the stock broke out to new all-time...

The Dow Jones Internet Index Fund $FDN has been on a tear, stair-steeping higher in a nearly vertical line for the past three months.

Price is knocking at the door to new all-time highs as it challenges its prior cycle peak from 2021.

However, whether or not this breakout sticks is a big question here.

The lower pane shows that the price is extended from its 200-day moving average.

Every time the price deviated from its long-term average in the recent year, it experienced a corrective wave before continuing its upward path.

So while I’m definitely anticipating some digestion at this resistance zone, I think FDN will eventually get the breakout done and take out this critical level just north of 250.

And when it happens, I want to lean into this leadership group. There is nothing better than a big base resolving into an empty space.

I’m ...

Even though the S&P 500 has experienced a series of negative days, no increase in new lows suggests breadth isn't significantly weakening.

One of the weakest sectors post-election has been the SPDR Materials ETF $XLB, which marked its ninth straight down day today.

The last time we saw such a streak of consecutive losses was during the middle of the previous bear market in 2022. 

What makes this particularly significant now is that it’s occurring right at a key level of former highs.

If the bulls want to maintain control, they’ll need to defend this level of former resistance-turned-support. 

As long as it holds and no new lows emerge, I’ll treat this losing streak as part of a corrective wave. We’re likely nearing a bounce as this pullback comes to an end.

Alfonso

With large-cap tech gaining momentum, semiconductors have set the stage for a year-end rally.

The Equal-Weight Semiconductors ETF $XSD offers a valuable lens into the overall health and performance of this critically important subsector.

Unlike traditional cap-weighted benchmarks, XSD provides a much broader view of what’s going on with these stocks. And right now, it’s telling us everything is good with semis.

Currently, the ETF is testing the upper limits of a big basing pattern, following a prior breakout attempt that failed a few months ago.

Our volatility squeeze indicator is accelerating higher, suggesting a big move is brewing.

If XSD can hold above its prior cycle highs, it can only be a bullish development and a big plus for the broader market.

And if...

December has a magic of its own, doesn't it? Whether it's the holidays, New Year's Eve celebrations, or the irresistible spread of good food, there's something special about this time of year.

It’s a season filled with activity and reflection—and not just in our personal lives.

The stock market also tends to sparkle in December. Historically, this month has been a strong one for equities.

Since 1950, the average cumulative December performance of the S&P 500 paints a picture of steady gains—but the real fireworks usually happen toward the end of the month.

This phenomenon is referred to as the “Santa Claus rally.”

Starting the last five days of the year and extending into the first two days of January, this rally has a reputation for delivering outsized returns.

It's like the market decides to gift investors a little extra trading gains.

Chinese equities have been undergoing meaningful changes beneath the surface since they posted their best week ever back in October.

A new uptrend appears to be taking shape for these stocks.

Looking at the bigger picture, when we compare Chinese stocks to their U.S. counterparts, the relative trend sits at a critical support level.

Take a look at the Shanghai Composite $SSEC versus the S&P 500 $SPX over the last three decades:

This ratio is at a critical inflection point, suggesting a trend reversal and outperformance from Chinese stocks could be on the cusp of beginning.

I can't think of a more logical place for this to happen than here.

Lately, it’s become almost routine to see tech-related groups hitting fresh highs across the board. 

From Software and Internet to Cybersecurity, Digital Payments, and Fintech, the strength in these sub-sectors has been nothing short of remarkable.

Now we can add the Cloud Computing ETF $SKYY to this impressive list of tech indexes breaking out to new all-time highs.

Price just took out a critical resistance level at the prior cycle highs from 2021, surging past 120 without looking back. 

This level now serves as a key threshold to watch on any corrective action. Will former resistance turn into support?

As long as SKYY holds above those old highs, the path of least...