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The Daily Number

No hype, no drama — Just quality winning 💼

June 9, 2025

Today's number is... 100

100 high-quality stocks quietly pushing the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ) to fresh all-time highs.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows the price of the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ).

The Takeaway: When high-quality stocks take the lead, it means the rally has real substance. 

This isn’t about hype or speculative moonshots. 

SPHQ tracks 100 S&P 500 names with strong profits, low debt, and clean balance sheets — and they’re breaking out.

Names like Visa, Mastercard, Intuit, ADP, and Paychex are all hitting all-time highs. 

These aren’t flashy trades — they’re consistent leaders. 

That kind of strength signals depth, not dazzle.

It also marks a shift in psychology. 

Early risk-on phases start with junky momentum. Then comes value and cyclicals. But when quality takes over, it’s often the most durable stage. Investors are bullish — just smarter about where they’re putting capital.

This isn’t a FOMO rally. It’s...

All Star Charts Premium

These Bears Are Playing With Fire 🔥

June 8, 2025

Short sellers are getting squeezed, and it’s plain to see.

They’ve been caught offside and are being forced to cover their positions.

They’re feeling the pain, and that’s exactly when we like to strike with our Freshly Squeezed strategy.

Here's our latest scan: 

 

As you can see, Phathom Pharma $PHAT, Applied Digital $APLD, and LZ Technology $TZMH are at the top of the leaderboard. 

Over the last 10 trading sessions, they've rallied 110.9%, 85.3%, and 66.9%, respectively.

Our long Sezzle $SEZL trade has also been ripping higher. The stock is up over 50% since we got long last month.

We also have tables sorted by short interest and days-to-cover.

Now, let's discuss today's setup and why we...

The Beat Goes On: Key Takeaways & Setups 📊

June 8, 2025

Another week of earnings, another batch of signals from the market.

The market reactions told us plenty whether companies beat, missed, or landed somewhere in the middle.

In this week’s recap, we’re covering the key reactions from last week and previewing the setups we’re focused on heading into next week.

What stood out to us last week 👇
  • Monday:
    • Costco $COST reported a double beat and rallied 3.1% on the news. The stock is now hovering near all-time highs.
    • Dell Technologies $DELL posted mixed results and slipped 2.1% in response to it. The market has punished the stock for 5 of the last 7 earnings reports.
  • Tuesday:
    • No earnings reactions in the S&P 500, but we spotlighted Toast $TOST, one of our favorite up-and-coming Software leaders.
    • After turning EBITDA positive for the first time and completing a multi-year base, the stock looks poised...
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The Strazza Letter

Top Down Trade of the Week

June 8, 2025

We got some nice feedback on our top-down scan from last weekend so I think we’ll make it a regular thing.

This is a clear and simple leadership scan, which is why I like it so much. 

We are drilling down to a trade idea following the traditional top down approach. It doesn’t get any better than that. 

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week, Materials is the big standout—jumping two spots in our sector rankings. It’s no surprise. Commodities are on a tear and participation is expanding. This means we should expect more materials stocks to start working. And we’re already seeing it. 

 

Upon digging deeper, we found Metals & Mining stocks have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the sector....

Hot Corner Insider

Insiders Double Down on the Crypto Treasury Trade

June 8, 2025

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and there’s always a fresh batch of standout moves worth watching.

Here’s this week’s most notable activity:

 

The most intriguing insider activity this week came in SharpLink Gaming $SBET. 

Both the CEO Rob Phythian and CFO Robert DeLucia filed Form 4s, purchasing a combined $300,000 worth of stock. 

This comes as the company pivots away from gambling and toward a digital asset treasury strategy.

Since announcing their shift to an Ethereum-based treasury model, similar to the Bitcoin playbook used by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, the stock has exploded — up over 3,500% in the past two weeks.

The insider buys only reinforce the conviction behind this dramatic corporate transformation. We’ll keep it on our radar and watch to see if this move sticks. 

...
The Strazza Letter

Bull Flag or Bust

June 7, 2025

This week was all about the bull flags.

Bonds dug in where they needed to recently.

International equities keep grinding higher with broadening participation.

And then we have the US indexes, which have been sideways, in high and tight fashion, since mid-May.

That changed this week…

The bulls got what they needed as a long list of these coils resolved higher.

We’ve been particularly interested in speculative growth, and ARKK is a great example of this bull flag theme, so let’s go there:

 

This is the same pattern we are seeing all over right now. A big time advance off the April lows into a 3-4 week continuation pattern.

And if there’s one thing we know about continuation patterns it is that their resolution should mark the continuance of the preceding price trend. Well, that...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Aerospace Rockets to New Peaks

June 6, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview

 

Aerospace & Defense is dominating right now.

The ETF tracking this sector, $ITA, is up 12% in just the last month, powering its way to all-time highs with impressive momentum.

Check out the explosive upside on the chart.

 

 

Breaking down the biggest contributors:

  • General Electric ($GE) – 21.04% weight
  • RTX Corporation ($RTX) – 12.42% weight
  • Boeing ($BA) – 9.94% weight

But it’s not just these giants pushing $ITA higher. Several smaller, lesser-weighted names (top left quadrant) are posting significant year-to-date gains.

Here’s a scatter plot of each component’s ETF weighting vs. YTD return.

 

 

While the broader market struggles to reclaim pre-tariff highs, Aerospace & Defense has blown past them.

And when you see relative strength like this, it rarely fades quickly.

A great example of this is the commodities complex. Gold is up +26% YTD and +43% over the last year.

This is a trend that's far from exhausting.

Our Chief Market Strategist, Steve Strazza, is hosting an...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Energy’s Setting Up

June 6, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

The commodity complex continues to shape up.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s note, metals tend to lead the cycle—and that’s exactly what we’re seeing. 

Gold’s ripping, silver’s breaking out, and strength is building across the space.

If these moves hold, it’s not a matter of if energy joins the party, but when.

That’s just how the cycle flows. Gold, then the rest of the metals, then energy.

Gasoline’s holding firm, and crude’s lack of downside follow-through has me thinking a scoop n’ score is imminent.

 

I’m watching closely for energy to dig in and start showing leadership off these key...

The Strazza Letter

Silver vs Gold Never Gets Old

June 6, 2025

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the breakout that was brewing in silver

And it wasn’t just about the price action in gold.

There were finally other signals emerging and suggesting higher prices for the precious metal. We just needed to see if those trends had legs. 

The silver/gold ratio is everything when it comes to risk appetite. It’s the oldest intermarket indicator in the world of commodities. Here’s what I said about it:

“If I end up being right about silver, we’re going to see the silver/gold ratio fail this breakdown and scoop higher”.

The writing was already on the wall for an epic bear trap, and this week it fired. 

The silver/gold ratio just had one of its best weeks in history and failed this topping pattern with authority. 

 ...
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International Hall of Famers (06-06-2025)

June 6, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

(Commodities Weekly) Is The Rotation Real? 📉📈

June 6, 2025
ICYMI: The Commodities Playbook is Out 🎥

We just hosted a live breakdown of all the major commodity futures, including Copper, Gold, Cocoa, Crude, and more. 

From what’s breaking out, what’s lagging, and how we’re positioning.

If you trade commodities, this is must-see TV.

📺 Watch the full replay below 👇

 

We’ve talked at length about Gold’s breakout

But everyone has forgotten about Copper and other industrial metals.

Copper isn’t just some industrial input. It’s the backbone of the modern economy.

The price has gone nowhere for decades. But over that time, it has carved out a massive accumulation pattern that looks ready to explode higher.

This is a trade we’ve been preparing for, and it may finally be here.

Gold made its move...
All Star Options

When Active Management Backfires: Lessons from a CCJ Trade

June 6, 2025

Back in October, I put on a bullish position in Cameco ($CCJ). It was a diagonal call calendar spread: I bought January 2026 $80 calls and sold December 2024 $65 calls against them, paying a net debit of $3.50.

The idea was pretty straightforward: I wanted to own the long-dated $80 calls, but I wanted them cheaper—so I financed them by selling front-month calls.

Had I done nothing after that—just sat on my hands—the short December calls would’ve expired worthless, and I’d still be holding the January 2026s. I’d be down about $1.25 on the trade today. Not ideal, but manageable.

But I didn’t do nothing.

As CCJ started to slide in November, I began actively managing the position. I rolled the short calls five separate times, each time pushing them out to a later month and collecting a bit more premium. Each roll chipped away at my initial cost basis:

 

By April 16, I had reduced my downside risk so much that the entire campaign had flipped into a 77-cent net credit!. If CCJ continued to go nowhere or down, all my options would eventually expire worthless and I’d actually walk away a small winner...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Taming a Wild Ride

June 6, 2025

 

Today's trade is in a biotech stock. And the word "biotech" should cue thoughts of "risky" and "volatile."

And this trade is no exception. So I'm going to get creative, utilizing a spread to lower my cost of participation, define my risk, and give me two paths to profitability. 

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/6/25

June 6, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling XLC to July options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Whiskey Can’t Save This Chart 🍹

June 6, 2025

Brown-Forman $BF.B just reported a double miss, and the market didn’t hold back.

Shares dropped nearly 18%, marking the worst earnings reaction in company history.

This isn’t an overreaction. It’s a reflection of deepening concerns about the company’s fundamentals.

Organic sales growth is slowing, margins are compressing, and iconic brands like Jack Daniel’s are struggling to maintain momentum in an increasingly competitive and cost-sensitive environment. 

What used to be seen as a premium, defensive name in consumer staples is now being priced more like a challenged value trap.

Even before this report, sentiment had been weakening. 

The stock has been punished for 8 of the last 12 earnings reports, a sign that investor confidence has been eroding for quarters.

Until management proves it can regain margin control and reignite consistent demand growth, things will continue worsening.

So what else did we learn from this earnings report? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings stats for BF.B 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

Brown-Forman had a -7.34...

Macke's Retail Roundup,
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Lulu Whiffs! Report Card

June 6, 2025

I told you Lululemon had its work cut out for it when it reported earnings Thursday night but I didn't think it would be quite this bad. With shares off 20% you can bet value shoppers will at least try to protect old lows of ~$250 for this once beloved fashion pioneer. Should you Buy the Dip or Run Away? 

 

Check out my Earnings Report Card for LULU before you decide.

 

Hot Corner Insider

Director Robotti Reports a $1 Million $TDW Purchase

June 6, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Tidewater Inc $TDW – Director Robert Robotti disclosed a Form 4 transaction for $1 million worth of his company’s stock. 

This is his fifth purchase this year and it comes as the stock finds footing at a key level of support. 

📌 Pangea Logistics Solutions Ltd $PANL – Strategic Shipping Inc stepped in with a near half-million-dollar purchase in the marine logistics company.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 5, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Oric Pharmaceuticals $ORIC – SR One Capital Management, a biotechnology venture capital firm, has taken an interest in this issue with an original...

The Daily Number

Turns Out the Rest of the World Still Exists🌏

June 6, 2025

Today's number is... 10

The ACWI vs US Industry Group Trend Spread just hit a 10-year high in favor of global markets.

Here’s the chart:

 

The Takeaway: Global markets haven't looked this strong relative to the US in a long time.

Actually, this is the highest level we have seen in 10 years.

Here’s how I measure trend strength using my custom trend scoring system.

I score every ticker on a scale of 0 to 4:

  • The 10-week moving average is rising
  • The 40-week moving average is rising
  • The 10-week MA is above the 40-week MA
  • Price is above the 10-week MA

Each check gets a point. 

Four out of four = strong uptrend.

I apply this to 42 countries from the ACWI and 72 US industry groups — 24 each from the S&P 500, 400, and 600.

Once I’ve scored everything, I take the average trend score for both groups and calculate the spread. Then I smooth it with a 10-week moving average.

So why does this matter?

The spread just hit a 10-year high. 

It's not a fluke. 

...