Today's number is... 2

We only have two out of nine indicators flashing green on my bull market behavior checklist.

Here is the table:

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About the Table: If you’re following me on X, you probably know that I like to know what type of environment we are in before allocating capital. 

This checklist is a mix of breadth, price & macro’ish indicators, which is designed to show turns toward risks or opportunities.

I use a mix of US and global market data and throw in a sprinkle of macro data. I do this...

While most uptrends have come under pressure in December, the rally in US Dollars has remained strong.

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been climbing in a near-vertical line since it bottomed at the lower bounds of its range three months ago.

Today, DXY is attempting to break out of a base as it trades at its highest level in over two years.

A decisive breakout in the dollar could shift the tide and put significant pressure on risk assets.

As long as the DXY holds above the critical 107.50 level, stock market bulls are on high alert.

Dollar headwinds are the last obstacle stocks want to face heading into the holidays.

While most uptrends have come under pressure in December, the rally in US Dollars has remained strong.

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been climbing in a near-vertical line since it bottomed at the lower bounds of its range three months ago.

Today, DXY is attempting to break out of a base as it trades at its highest level in over two years.

A decisive breakout in the dollar could shift the tide and put significant pressure on risk assets.

As long as the DXY holds above the critical 107.50 level, stock market bulls are on high alert.

Dollar headwinds are the last obstacle stocks want to face heading into the holidays.

Here's the replay and chartbook from the December 19 livestream. Note that we talk strategy every Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, and I answer questions in the chat room.

Be sure to join us and maximize your return potential.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Defensive adjustment to XME.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Here's the replay and chartbook from first Breakout Multiplier Mastermind class, in which I discuss the basic tenants of the Breakout Multiplier strategy and how to get the most out of it. 

There’s chatter about a potential head and shoulders top forming in NVDA. 

While it’s always good to be aware of potential reversal patterns, let’s keep things in perspective: these so-called “tops” have failed all year long.

We want to fade yesterday’s selloff and make the bet that this top in NVDA turns into a continuation pattern just like all those before it.

The underlying trend is far more important than any short-term pattern. And that trend, for Nvidia, continues to point higher.

Price is bouncing off the VWAP from August 5th lows.

This has all the characteristics I look for in a failed top, and this week, we even got a little shakeout to new lows. 

I love it when these patterns trap the bears before price springs higher. This is a common way for the failure rally to kick off.

We’re buying the $NVDA 1/24 $150...

JC here.

It's the last day of guest posts from each of the members of the All Star Charts research team. I'll be back at my desk later this afternoon.

Today's post is from Grant Hawkridge.

G'day everyone! 

Most of you already know me, but for those who don’t, my name is Grant. I’m the Aussie component of All Star Charts. 

JC and Steve found me lurking on Twitter, where I was sharing my...

Today's number is... 97%

Forewarning: This note will take two minutes to read as a lot has happened since yesterday's move lower:

- The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its 10th consecutive down day.

- The S&P 500 has experienced 13 straight days with more decliners than advancers.

- The S&P 500 saw a spike in 1-month new lows to 60%, the highest level since March 2023.

- The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in oversold conditions increased to 29.5%, reaching its highest level since October 2023.

- The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average dropped to 18.3%, the lowest level since November 2023.

However, one data point that caught my attention was that over 97% of stocks in the S&P 1500 declined in price yesterday!

Here is the table:

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The Takeaway: Yesterday morning, I pointed out that the...

Leading today’s list is Ariel Emanuel, CEO of TKO Group Holdings $TKO, making waves with an eye-popping $77 million purchase. 

When a CEO drops this kind of cash on their own stock, it screams confidence in the company’s future.

Kenneth Courtis, independent director of Alpha Metallurgical Resources $AMR, followed suit with a hefty $2.4 million buy. Insider moves like this often hint at good things to come, or at least an upward move in the stock.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from December 18, 2024:

ConocoPhillips $COP saw action too, as director R.A. Walker scooped up 10,400 shares in the latest Form 4 filing.

But that’s not all. The president and CEO of 3D Systems Corporation $DDD, Jeffrey Graves, doubled down with a bold move, snapping up 60,000 shares of his own company’s stock.

Today was a bloodbath for stocks. 

Bears showed up after the FOMC announcement, and the market got sold aggressively with every sector finishing lower on the day.

The S&P 500 plunged 2.95%, its worst drop in over two years. Small-caps, banks, and industrials have now given back all of their post-election gains, joining a growing list of groups to do this.

And the VIX spiked sharply, recording its second-largest single-day move in history.

On days like today, analysts are checking under the hood and assessing market internals to see how significant the damage is.

Here’s one of my go-to charts for this. It shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month lows:

New lows are expanding over shorter timeframes, hinting at growing weakness under the surface. Today marked the highest reading in the percent of 1-month lows since March 2023.

Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolling XLB position into February options.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

I’ll be back from my holiday soon. But in the meantime, our Chief Options Strategist, Sean has an important message. 

Attend his live event on Thursday and I’ll see you back here on Friday. 

JC

Hi, I’m Sean. I’m the Chief Options Strategist at All Star Charts. 

2024 has been a fantastic bull market. 

These are the types of markets we live for. 

It’s easy to feel...

Baker Bros Advisors, renowned for their biotech expertise, increased their stake in Bicycle Therapeutics $BCYC from 19.76% to 22.90%, as disclosed in a 13D filing. 

This signals strong confidence in the company's prospects, likely tied to its innovative "Bicycles" platform for developing novel therapies. 

Given the Bakers' track record, their investment is a notable endorsement of Bicycle Therapeutics' potential. 

In essence, when the Bakers buy, biotech investors pay attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from December 17, 2024:

Two notable insider purchases were disclosed via Form 4 filings in the energy sector:

• PBF Energy Inc $PBF: Control Empresarial de Capitales SA reported a purchase, adding $5,357,162 to its current position.
• Diamondback Energy $FANG: Director Steven West also disclosed buying shares for $975,960.

Today's number is... 37.3 > 34.3

More S&P 500 stocks are in downtrends than uptrends.

37.3% are in downtrends… and 34.3% are in uptrends.

Has the environment switched? Maybe.

Here is the chart:

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Let's first break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

In green is the % of S&P 500 stocks above both their 200-day and their 50-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term uptrend.

In yellow is the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day but below their 50-day moving averages. This indicates a longer-term uptrend but a short-term mess.

In red is the % of S&P 500 stocks below their 200-day and below their 50-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term downtrend.

The Takeaway: This chart is a great way to visualize the current market environment and track trends beneath the surface.

Currently, over one-third of...