It's hard not to reflect on the past 12 months as we celebrate the New Year with our friends and family. For me it's both a blessing and a curse. While it's exciting to begin 2018 on a fresh note, I really didn't want 2017 to end. It's been an amazing year of learning and growing as an investor and a business man. It's not easy, but every challenge brings its own lessons and rewards. It's never a loss if you can learn from the experience.

Today I wanted to share what I'm thinking about the past year and what I'm expecting as we enter 2018. I do this because I believe it's therapeutic to put thoughts down on paper. I encourage everyone to keep some sort of journal, whether in a public forum like me or private. It's also important to me to continue to think out loud so readers can better understand where I'm coming from. I think we always need to know who is writing and producing the content we are consuming. Whether it's via text, audio, video or otherwise.

This is who I am:

We do not make end of 2018 forecasts. I think it's irresponsible to think that we have any idea of what will happen a year from now. We want to reevaluate our thesis as time goes on and new data comes in. This reevaluation process occurs consistently throughout the entire year. How else can we manage risk responsibly? Are we supposed to place our bets after New Years and just hope for the best? Come on.

Take a deep breath. Forget everything we did this year and only think about where we are today. The idea is to keep an open mind and keep every option available. If we've loved something in 2017, that doesn't mean we can't hate it in 2018. Just because we've been shorting something this year, doesn't mean we can't be buyers in the next coming quarters. We're not here to be right, we're here to make money. We can't forget that and let ego take priority over profitability. It's important to be aware of our cognitive behavior patterns and this is one of them.

Lastly, we want to ignore what the year-to-date returns were for different asset classes. I think the arbitrary Jan 1 to Dec 31st performance doesn't help us identify the direction of primary trends. So to...

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts India Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the India Share Market. We take a look at all of the NSE Indexes and Sectors as well as some of our own custom indexes. At Allstarcharts we have become known around the world for the top/down approach to stocks. After we analyze each of the indexes and sectors and have identified where the strength and weakness lies, then we break it down to individual stock opportunities. By having momentum, relative strength and market trend in our favor, the probabilities of success increase dramatically.

We've been bullish towards Indian and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way...

I don't make as many TV appearances as I used to when I lived in New York City, but when I'm town I love to swing by the FOX Business studios to chat with my old pal Liz Claman. She respects our Technical approach and understands the value that we bring to both institutional and retail investors.

This week I sat down with her to discuss the risk vs reward opportunities we currently see in the S&P500, Bitcoin and Steel Dynamics $STLD. I think this conversation was quick and to the point, just how we like it.

Here is the interview in full:

Pretty much every day for the past 15 years I've been asked the same question: What should I invest in? The way I get asked is always changing, of course. It's been, "How many houses should I buy in Miami since real estate only goes up?" to, "Which marijuana penny stock should I buy?" to, "Which crypto do I buy" (not if. which one?). The "sexy assets" of each era are all different, but the idea is the same. Because of my interest in markets, this question is constantly fired my way.

The answer I give isn't always well received, but it comes from the bottom of my heart. If you want to invest, where better to do that than in yourself? Go buy a book and spend the time to read it. Go reach out to someone you look up to and buy them a drink, or coffee or lunch and learn from them. Go travel to a far away land and meet with the locals. All of these "investments" are probably going to go a lot further than the litecoin you just bought because your nephew told you it's a good idea and you saw someone talking about it on the tv.

I am really lucky that I learned this very early on and it has helped me exponentially more than I could...

This week I was in New York City working on some really cool things that I'll be announcing next quarter. It has been an incredible year and I think 2018 is going to somehow be even better!  While I was in town, I swung by the Nasdaq Marketsite to chat with my friends over at BNN in Canada. They wanted me to talk about my thoughts on Bitcoin (of course), precious metals and U.S. equities.

It was a quick hit but I think I laid out some really interesting opportunities with very well defined risk parameters. As long as the potential reward is exponentially greater than the risk and the trend is on our side, I see little reason not to be all over these. There have been some very powerful trends in these markets over the past few years that I think continue into 2018.

Here is the video in full:

What often gets lost in the shuffle between whether or not to buy emerging market stocks is the fact that there are several important components within the group. Emerging markets aren't just one thing. They are a collection of major markets around the world that are not yet fully developed.

Today we're talking about the structural breakout we're seeing in shares of the India Exchange Traded Fund $INDY. Look at the former highs in 2011 that were tested again in early 2015. This year prices were finally able to break out above that key resistance to begin a new leg higher. These are characteristics of uptrends, not downtrends. The weekly bar chart tells the story well:

JC O'hara is the perfect compliment to all of the amazing guests that we've already on the podcast. Because his clients are primarily hedge funds and other buy side institutions, JC brings a unique perspective on market behavior, sentiment and investor psychology. As the Chief Market Technician at FBN Securities, JC gets to speak to some of the smartest investors in the market and we're lucky to have him sharing his insights and experiences with us in this episode. This week we talk about the current market environment for stocks using...

These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts India.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday, December 21st at 7 PM IST. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since our launch.

Here are the details for Tuesday:

In the world we live in today, it's hard to find someone that is excited about Consumer Staples. "Why, do they have a new digital coin out?" is what you might hear. While some people treat the the volatility in certain asset classes as something to be distracted about, we just look at bitcoin and its fellow coins as another investing vehicle. Consumer Staples have just as important of a role in our process. Today, I want to talk about the breakout we've seen this week in the Equally-weighted Consumer Staples Index Fund.

The way I learned it, the bigger the base, the higher in space! We want to buy breakouts from markets that have been range-bound for a while. Consumer Staples are one of them.

I have a workbook of charts where I keep the entire list of stocks in the Consumer Staples Sector. With the Equally-weighted Consumer Staples Index breaking out of a multi-year base, we want to find the stocks that are going to lead this sector higher.

Here is a list of the ones that stand out which are showing strength and a risk vs reward skewed in favor of the bulls following the longer-term and shorter-term uptrend in Consumer Staples:

One thing I feel has gotten lost in the whole "Stocks and Bitcoin make all-time highs every day" rhetoric is the overwhelming weakness in precious metals. Gold, Silver, Platinum and Gold Mining stocks are all making new lows, resuming their trend of lower lows and lower highs.

We've been aggressively bearish Gold, Gold Mining Stocks and anything precious metals really since October. Based on what we've seen since then, I see no reason to change our approach towards this market. To the contrary, I think the selling we've seen come in confirmed everything we had been seeing in September - a bunch of people getting caught long in a bull trap. It was classic. 

We look to Financials as a leader. We've never had a bull market in US Stocks without participation from the banks. They don't necessarily need to be leading but they do need to participate. When we see the S&P Financials Index going out at new 10-year weekly closing highs, it's hard to be bearish stocks as an asset class. This has been a big part of the aggressively bullish case I've been making since the summer of 2016. Meanwhile, the Broker Dealers Index is holding above its former all-time highs from 2007 and just beginning a new leg higher.

These are not bearish characteristics for stocks as an asset class.

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Interest Rates.

I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there!...

There is a lot to be said for taking the time to analyze all of the stocks in an index. I find that process to be much more rewarding than obsessing over every 50 basis point move in the index itself. I've written in the past about how I think the Dow Jones Industrial Average is underrated. You can go through all 500 stocks in the S&P500 or just 30 of them in the DJIA and you'll get a quick snapshot of the health of the market. If there are more good ones than bad ones, it's probably not a downtrend in the index. If there are more bad stocks than good ones, it's likely the index will follow them lower as well.

Today I want to go through this process, but with the Dow Jones Transportation Average. You can go through them all yourself here. I did a deep dive analysis on Transportation Stocks in general when they were near their lows in August. The Dow Jones...

James Bianco is someone who has definitely influenced my work throughout my career. If you've ever watched one of my presentations, you know I could rip through 150 charts in an hour without a problem. I'm pretty sure I got in this habit watching James Bianco. Also, his multiple timeframe approach to Interest Rates and Intermarket Analysis is something I have a lot of respect for. In this conversation we discuss Bitcoin, of course, Rates, Sentiment, old market indicators that are no longer useful and what the spread between Copper and Gold could be signaling for the market moving forward. This was a real treat for me to have someone I've looked up to for a long time and pick his brain about his process. I hope you...

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of every bull market. When one sector reaches a temporary peak, another one takes over the charge while the former leaders consolidate. We have seen this happen throughout the past 2 years in a very consistent way. Today we're taking a look at all of the individual sectors and the industry groups within them to find the areas of strength and weakness moving forward. 

The best hour I spend each month is going over my Monthly Candlestick Charts. I can't understand how some people don't do it. Think about it: 12 hours of your life per year. Imagine all the things you do throughout the year that takes you 12 hours and probably does you more harm than good.

If you forget everything I ever tell you, please just remember not to ignore the monthly candlesticks. It doesn't matter if you're a short-term trader or longer-term investor or anything in between. Getting longer-term perspective and identifying the direction of the primary trend is the most important thing we do. Once that has been determined, then we can incorporate multiple timeframes to break it down to our time horizon of choice, whether it's more intermediate or short-term.

Since November is now in the books, it's that time of the month to rip through a ton of Monthly Candlestick charts. Here's what I'm seeing out there:

I get asked a lot about moving averages. Many people think they are this incredible indicator that will lead to riches. Unfortunately, they're the furthest thing from that. These are just invisible lines that people like to paint different colors to exaggerate their meaning. There are all different kinds of moving averages: some are shorter-term, some are longer-term, some give more weight to recent prices while others are equally weighted. I like to say that if you have enough moving averages on your screen, one of them will work!

Today I'd like to share with you in simple terms how I use them:

Register here for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts India.

December's Strategy Session will be held on Thursday, December 2nd at 7 PM IST. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with all of our past conference calls.

Here are the details for Tuesday:

I look at a lot of charts. The best way to visualize the changes in equilibrium between supply and demand just so happens to be in chart form. If there was a better way to do it I would use that instead. So I'm stuck ripping through thousands and thousands of charts a week. I'm cool with it. It's something I enjoy doing because I know that the only way to properly weigh all of the evidence is to actually weigh it all.

One of the most valuable things I do is to go through every single U.S. Market Index. It really helps get perspective from all sorts of different angles, whether it is various market caps or weighting combinations. I've learned that it's not just about the S&P500 or Nasdaq100 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's how they are all getting along with one another that I'm most concerned with.

We'll go one by one discussing risk levels, targets and implications:

This week on the podcast we have Charlie Bilello, Chartered Market Technician and Director of Research at Pension Partners, LLC. Charlie is someone many of us consider to be a deep thinker. The former Charles Dow Award winner is well known for busting stock market myths made popular by members of the media and other types of people who do not even participate in markets. In this episode we discuss why news consumption tends to do more harm than good, what some of the alternatives are and why it is a good idea to follow market behavior, instead of people's opinions. We get into the current market environment and discuss the current sentiment and price action in Gold, Bitcoin and US Equities. Charlie is one of the ones I knew I wanted to have on this podcast...

It was Thanksgiving last week and the hot topic all over dinner tables throughout the world was about Bitcoin. Older relatives asking younger nieces and nephews to explain crypto-currencies was probably something pretty hilarious to watch by being a fly on the wall of many households.

In the spirit of the holidays, I thought I would post a couple of charts that I think are worth sharing with those family members and friends who are coming out of the woodwork asking about the not so new asset class. While I don't particularly care about the actual technology behind blockchain, I do think it's important to focus on the behavior of these markets. This is how we can responsibly calculate risk vs reward propositions. That's what this is about at the end of the day right? We're here to make money.