Is there anyone left out there who wants to buy Yahoo? I don't see any.

Talk about terrible sentiment in a stock. Anecdotally that's obvious, but our data suggests the same thing. Also, does anyone have anything nice to say about Marissa Mayer? All of this really gets my attention and has me thinking. Can Yahoo seriously mean revert here? I think there's a good chance.

Here's the trade:

Back in November I pointed to the Value Line Geometric Index as one of many reasons why I was bearish the U.S. Stock Market. One of many, but definitely a good one. You see, when we look at cap-weighted indexes like the S&P500 or Nasdaq100, the components with the largest market capitalization have the heaviest weighting in the index. This allows relative strength in some of the largest companies to hide what is actually happening underneath the surface. It doesn't tell the entire story.

By looking at the Value Line Geometric Index, which consists of around 1700 names and assumes an equal dollar amount invested in each stock covered by Value Line, we get a much more broad based look at the U.S. Stock Market.

There is much more to life that what the Dow did yesterday. Every week we go chart by chart looking at all of the major U.S. Stock Market Indexes. This analysis includes the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Dow Jones Utility Average, Nasdaq100, Russell 2000, Mid-Cap 400, Russell Micro-cap Index, etc.

All of these charts have been updated on both Weekly and Daily timeframes in the Chartbook and these are a few of my notes from this week's analysis including some updated risk vs reward levels:

Please note: this is multi-timeframe analysis looking both long-term and short-term. Defining who you are as an investor

, particularly your time horizon, is especially important at this point as, for the most part, the weekly charts and daily charts are telling different stories because they are on different time frames.

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @brunicharting

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Over the past five years or so, USD/CHF has been laying the foundation for a structural breakout, a structural breakout that looks to be in its early stages as 2016 begins. Before I get into the price action, I think it's important to understand the context that this move is occurring within.

From a sentiment perspective, my data suggests that commercial hedger positioning and public sentiment are both at neutral levels. Sentiment is only important at extremes, which I don't see currently, therefore this will be the extent to which I discuss it in this post. In terms of seasonality, my data suggests that over the past thirty years, January-March has been the worst three month period of the year for Swiss Franc performance. The combination of these factors

Commodities and Currencies are telling an interesting story. When you go through each of them one by one, you start to recognize ongoing themes, whether in energy, metals or agriculture. In addition, based on specific strength and weakness in different currencies around the globe, that information can be used in multiple ways. Using intermarket analysis, we can take that information and use it in the equities market, or go ahead and trade the commodities and currencies directly using Futures, Forex or ETFs. Either way, it's worth doing the homework.

I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review and updated all of them in the Chartbook. It's nice to see Oil and Copper rallying as we discussed in the most recent letter. I think this theme continues

One of the big themes that I see globally right now is the inordinate amount of bullish momentum divergences across the board. You can see these even more pronounced in the emerging market countries, although to be fair, they can be found in the developed nations as well. They are all detailed in the Chartbook. I think that a very telling chart right now is the S&P500 vs the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Here we are looking at a very well-defined multi-year uptrend channel in the S&P500 vs MSCI Emerging Markets Index

This week I was driving home and flipping through radio stations on Satellite and I stopped to listen in on what was happening on the financial tv networks. I just learned this week that financial tv networks air their tv stuff on the radio too. Fun fact. Anyway, the topic was about Amazon earnings and how bad tech companies are doing. Not sure what Amazon has to do with technology? This was a stock market show. Amazon is a Consumer Discretionary stock. It's actually the largest component of the Consumer Discretionary sector and is not even listed in the Technology Sector Index. Still, on and on they went about Amazon being a technology company. It made no sense.

Guys, I get it. We can sit here all day talking about what great technology Amazon has, and AWS is so great, etc etc. Yes, I know. But we're talking about the stock market here, are we not?

From the desk of Tom Bruni @brunicharting

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South Africa ETF To Rally 25%?

With global equity markets looking poised for a tactical bounce in the week(s) ahead, one market in particular looks ripe for a potential squeeze higher.

South Africa has been in a strong downtrend since breaking down from a symmetrical triangle late last August. Selling quickly accelerated after a major support level near 51-52 broke shortly after the breakdown from, and retest of, the symmetrical triangle. Last week prices traded through another major support level near 40 and swiftly reversed to close the week back above it while momentum diverged positively.

Although the main structural downside

On Monday afternoon I was over at the Bloomberg West headquarters as a guest on their 4PM show "What'd You miss?". This is a show that I've appeared on a few times from New York, so it was cool to see their San Francisco studios. My take is that the snack bar in the Lexington Avenue building in New York is much better, but the view of the Bay in San Francisco beats the view of Queens, NY all day. So we'll chalk it up as a tie.

Anyway, last time I was on the show back in December we wanted to be short the S&P500, Apple and Emerging Markets while simultaneously buying U.S. Treasury Bonds. This has worked out very well over the past month as stocks got crushed to start the year, so we couldn't be happier. Now, although a lot of our tactical downside targets were hit last week, including Apple into the low 90s, structurally things have actually gotten worse. I think going forward, any strength should be used as an opportunity to sell into and much lower prices are coming for U.S. Stocks.

Here is the full interview:

This is a great piece from the desk of Tom Bruni @brunicharting

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Approaching Tactical Bounces In Bear Markets

After doing my U.S. Sector and Sub-sector review, there is a common theme that I think is worth pointing out. Structurally speaking, things now look worse. The best sectors that had been leading are now breaking uptrend lines and key support. Meanwhile, the laggards continue to hit new lows. Things overall have worsened in my opinion.

Now, short-term we had a lot of very specific downside targets in most sectors coming into the new year. Over the past week and a half I would say that a very large majority of the S&P sectors and sub-sectors have now achieved those downside objectives. I've been very clear about where we want to cover tactical shorts and they are detailed in the Chartbook. Going forward we would much rather be sellers of strength, than buyers of dips, although there are a few exceptions.

Here are my notes from this week's sector review:

Going country by country all over the world is one of the best tools that we have as market participants. The value that I’ve gotten over the years from looking at the behavior of all of the countries, instead of just the U.S. is a huge factor in why I am such a top/down weight-of-the-evidence guy. There are signs of strength and weakness that we see from international markets that might not be so obvious in the S&P500, for example.

Last September, I promise you that the reason I got bullish tactically was not because of what I was seeing in the United States, but what was happening around the world. There were simply too many bullish momentum divergences and downside objective achieved internationally to ignore. Something was up, and in fact, the counter-trend rally that we got in the U.S. actually exceeded my expectations.

Momentum is a word that is used an awful lot when referring to public markets. You hear people talk about "momentum stocks" or how they're seeing a "momentum shift". Unfortunately most of these references are just off-the-cuff sort of statements that don't have any real meaning. "It sounds good, so let's use it", kind of mentality. For me, it is a really important part of my process and I want to explain to you how I use it.

First of all, I am not an oscillator junkie. We all know that guy with 27 indicators plotted beneath the price on a chart. That isn't me. I like my charts clean. It's amazing how much you can see when you just get everything else the hell out of the way. My preference is a 14-period Relative Strength Index, otherwise known as RSI. Don't confuse this with

The big level that I've been watching in S&Ps has been that 1880-1890 area representing support in August and September, which was also resistance back in early 2014. To me, this has been the big line in the sand. I see no reason to be short this market if prices are above those levels, and we're finishing up the week above it. So now what?

Structurally speaking, I don't think it changes anything bigger picture. We are still in a downtrend in U.S. Stocks as the weight-of-the-evidence suggests that we ultimately head much lower. We saw more new 52-week lows on the NYSE this week than we did at the August lows, an expansion in weakness, in other words. Financials have collapsed on a relative basis, hitting fresh multi-year lows

When we talk about leadership in the market, I think it's important to go sector by sector to see where the leaders are and where the laggards might be. To help with this study, we take a look at each of the 10 S&P Sectors and compare them to the performance of the S&P500. This Relative Strength Analysis is one of the best ways to see sector rotation and changes in market leadership.

I have just updated all of the Sector vs S&P500 charts in the ChartBook and here are some of my notes:

A big reason why I've been bearish towards the U.S. Stock Market is because I'm in the weight-of-the-evidence business and globally stocks have been getting crushed. It was only a matter of time before the selling came to the United States Index. A good example of a broken market making new lows is India's Nifty Fifty Index.

That was fun wasn't it? S&Ps lost a cool 13% since the last week of 2015. You think that's a lot? Emerging Markets lost 16% during that period. The Russell 2000 Small-cap Index lost over 17%. Micro-caps lost over 18%. 13 is nothing. And get used to it, because I think there is a lot more selling coming.

Today, we're going to focus on what the S&P500 looks like because that is what all of you keep asking me about. I like to look at stock markets from a more global perspective, taking into account what other asset classes are doing like commodities, currencies and interest rates. Remember, I'm in the weight-of-the-evidence business. I believe that in order to navigate through what is a constantly evolving global marketplace, taking the weight-of-the-evidence is the best approach. But today, we'll take a deep dive look at S&Ps on their own.

While everyone is making a big fuss about S&Ps making new lows, or Oil hitting new lows, or the amount of stocks in the NYSE hitting new lows, believe it or not, there are plenty of things making new highs. So although we've been bearish towards the U.S. Stock Market for months and could not be happier to see stocks continuing to sell off, today I want to focus on something that is making new highs.

This is a 20-year chart of Gold relative to the CRB index. This index is comprised of 19 Commodities including Crude Oil, Copper, Corn, Sugar, Gold etc. We consider the CRB to be the benchmark for the commodities markets

The Head and Shoulders experts are popping up everywhere these days. Never has there been a price pattern searched for or imagined in people's minds more than the infamous Head & Shoulders Pattern. Funny, as much as they love to talk about it and as much airtime as it gets on the TV and Internets, it's actually one of the more rare patterns driven by supply and demand. The reason it is so rare is because, by definition, it is a reversal pattern. Since markets trend, and ongoing trends tend to continue trending in their direction, by looking for a Head and Shoulders Pattern, you are doing the exact opposite of what we're trying to do here in the first place: recognize trends.

As a simple definition, a Head and Shoulders pattern, in this case, a Head and Shoulders Top, is made up of two higher highs (the "Left Shoulder" and the "Head"), followed by a lower high ("Right Shoulder"). After each of the prior higher highs, the ensuing sell-offs should find support near

It doesn't matter what this chart is. Tell me this isn't a structural breakout to kick off the New Year?