Shoutout to my boy Kenny Glick. He's the man. And I feel like I'm channeling him a bit today. I recently saw him talking about how he's getting into a trade in a name that has failed on him so many times in the past. Yet, when there's a favorable setup, he has to step up and take another swing -- even though he's seen this movie before.

I'm going to do something similar today in a crypto miner. I've been beaten time and time again with these things. But one of these times it's got to work! Why not today?

Please forgive my tirade at the beginning of this episode about my short $MTB trade. I had to defend my honor... 

But after that, me and Strazza get into the setup in MARA Holdings $MARA and how we arrived at what might seem to a lot of you (me too) a pretty high risk, but potentially huge reward trade:

For reference again, here's a one-year chart of $MARA:

Here's the Play:

I like entering a $MARA June 15/32 Risk Reversal for a small net credit. This means I'll be naked short the June 15 puts and long an equal amount of the June 32 calls. All in, I should earn a small net credit for putting the...

The Breakout Multiplier strategy is all about persistence and risk management.

Sometimes, the trades we put on take a few tries to materialize, with some losses along the way. But when you hit that one winning trade, it makes up for everything—often covering those earlier losses and more. That's the key to this approach.

Our recent persistence with $SOUN has paid off in a big way.

We put some calls on a few months back and they went to zero.

We liked the setup even more at this point, so we simply put the trade on again, this time, buying ourselves even more time.

After surging 18% yesterday, our 1/17/25 $7 calls are at a double.

It is time to secure some profits. We want to close half the calls and let the rest ride risk-free....

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new trades today.
2. Adjustment in ITB today.
3. Exited XRT at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Bitcoin is moving this week and is already working on a breakout to new all-time highs.

Amazon reports earnings this Thursday, and is also attempting to break out above its prior cycle's peak to go on to new all-time highs.

Apple already broke out above its 2021 top, and has already been making new all-time highs for months. 

Apple's breakout and extension to new highs, in my opinion, is setting the stage for Amazon and Bitcoin to do the same.

Amazon and Apple both report their earnings this...

Liberty 77 Fund is back on the hunt, snatching up another $3.1 million in Lions Gate Entertainment Corp $LGF shares, according to its latest Form 4 filing.

This is the fifth purchase Liberty 77 has made this month, totaling $14,627,477.

When the big guns step in like this, you know there’s more than just a casual interest.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from October 28, 2024:

The president and CEO of CoStar Group Inc $CSGP reported an acquisition of 14,731 shares, equivalent to $1,099,966.

It's always a good sign when the CEO buys in. After all, if anyone understands the company's potential, it's the person running it.

There was also insider activity in Atlas Energy Solutions Inc $AESI, Logitech International S.A. $LOGI, and Winnebago Industries $WGO.

Bitcoin is on the verge of resolving higher from a massive consolidation phase.

This isn’t just a short-term consolidation; it’s one of those bases that typically marks the beginning or onset of a fresh bull market. 

These are the periods where we see altcoins multiplying, meme coins surging, and laser eyes all over the internet.

We’ve witnessed this before, and I believe we’re on the cusp of experiencing it again.

It’s also worth noting that these bullish instances have clustered around the holiday season in the past. We’re there now.

It’s all set up so perfectly for another crypto Christmas.

Take a moment to review previous cycles, and you will see just what I mean.

Here’s a zoomed out look at Bitcoin, effectively absorbing all the overhead supply at the upper bounds of the range.

If...

I think it’s really important to own the junkiest stuff right now.

Risk appetite is improving across the board.

We’re seeing a growing list of speculative assets break out from consolidations.

I took a quick break from the Morning Show today to buy this textbook reversal in Dogecoin.

All things Elon are working. I think Tesla is a good buy here, too. 

As it turns out, $44B was an absolute steal for Twitter. He bought himself the best seat in the White House and will be laughing all the way to the bank for the next four years.

I also put another risk reversal on Coinbase and bought some short-dated calls in a beat-up Bitcoin miner this morning.

While I was doing this, Mike Antonelli was on the show telling JC how he’s seeing the same thing.

He used a chart of Discretionary vs Staples to make his point about healthy...

Speculative tech is on fire, and as we enter the best three-month period for equities, we’re all-in on this theme. 

Following a similar path as recent winners like Peloton and Robinhood, Lovesac Co $LOVE is shaping up nicely as it breaks out of a big base.

As you can see, the stock is on the verge of completing a classic bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

Momentum is building, and with volatility crushed at historic lows, the setup looks primed for a pop. 

We want to get long and bet on this being the start of a new uptrend.

Add a juicy 28% short interest and daunting 14x days-to-cover to the mix, and we like this one even more. 

This has all the makings for a massive potential short squeeze.

There was...

Despite bond yields and dollars screaming higher and reaching overbought conditions, stocks and precious metals rallied during what is historically the worst time of the year. 

During a bad seasonal period, junior gold and silver mining stocks had their best week since 2020, and silver printed fresh multi-year highs.

The bulls' ability to maintain control during a historically weak period speaks to the strength and resilience of this market.

Let's talk about the demand we're seeing for precious metals around the world and a few of our favorite trade ideas right now:

I'm continuing my recent theme of portfolio diversification today with another short position, this time in a stock that should be performing well heading into Halloween and holiday season -- but isn't.

In fact, the chart looks like its got a lot of room to fall if their upcoming earnings report disappoints.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended October 25, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New trade today in USO.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XME position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This is NOT a political post.

So if you're one of these sensitive types who is just too mentally weak to put your politics aside when making decisions about the market, then you're in the wrong place Karen. 

For those of you who can be adults and actually focus on data and facts, here are some thoughts that might help you put the next couple of weeks in perspective.

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that the market has fully priced in a second trump presidency.

Here's a look at the betting markets showing the red line (trump) moving very aggressively to the upper right of the chart, while the blue line (harris) has been moving to the lower right of the chart.

You'll hear the conspiracy theories that a few guys behind the scenes are manipulating these markets because they are in favor of trump.

That's one way to look at it. 

Peter Thiel, a well-known republican, is an investor in Polymarket.

So it's certainly possible that him and his buddies are moving markets and just throwing money away to help influence political outcomes.

Yes. That is possible...

But here's how I see it. 

...

Today’s standout insider activity is a Schedule 13G filing from James Flynn's Deerfield Management. The firm just reported a new position in Embecta Corp $EMBC with a 5.33% stake.

Known for its sharp eye on healthcare and biotech, Deerfield goes all in, building a high-conviction, focused portfolio centered on medical innovation. 

The top holdings include Nuvalent $NUVL, Insmed $INSM, and Viatris $VTRS.

In other insider news, Control Empresarial de Capitales SA, led by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, reported the acquisition of 487,100 shares of PBF Energy $PBF.

Slim now owns 24,951,498 shares of PBF, giving him a 20.73% stake in the company.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from October 25, 2024:

Two directors of Norfolk Southern Corporation $NSC filed Form 4s revealing purchases of the railroad stock. The combined amount was just north of half a million dollars.

We're beginning to emerge from the crypto bear market, and I can see a glimmer of light ahead.

The possibility of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 feels real.

I think now is the moment to prepare yourself.

The best 3 month period of the year begins this week.

We know this.

But to me, the bigger question is how stocks did during what is historically the worst time of the year?

Remember how September and October are supposed to be terrible for stocks?

Well they weren't.

In fact, stocks rallied during September and October. All the major U.S. indexes were up.

Now we enter the Best 3 months: November - January. 

Here's what that looks like:

So if stocks couldn't go down in price during the worst period of the year, how do you think stocks will do when they're actually supposed to go up?

Zooming out, here are the returns of the major indexes during "The Worst 6 Months" of the year.

All of them were up double digits, when historically they were supposed to fall...

For me, we don't like to position ourselves according to seasonal tendencies.

The real value, in my experience, is looking back after the fact to see if the market acknowledged or ignored seasonal trends.

When the market is resilient during the bad times, historically that bodes very well for the upcoming...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Health Care stocks were under pressure again this week with the large cap SPDR $XLV falling about 3%.

XLV is now the worst performing sector SPDR over the trailing 1-month and 3-month timeframe.

When we look at Health Care on an equal weight basis, the group looks even more vulnerable.

Here's a chart of the Invesco Equal Weight Health Care ETF $RSPH: 

As you can see, RSPH tried to break out from a base last month, but was immediately rejected and is now back below those prior cycle highs.

To make matters worse, price is also violating an upward trendline and the VWAP anchored from the year-to-date lows.

As long as price remains stuck in the current range the bias is sideways for longer for this groups of stocks.

In the event the broader market turns, however, these laggards are likely to lead lower.

Let me know what you think!

Alfonso

Each year, Americans buy over 600 million pounds of candy and eat over 1 pound each for Halloween.

It's a lot...

But are there opportunities to profit from Americans ritualistically eating way too much candy? You betcha!

Let's talk about it.

After a historic 190% run earlier this year, cocoa futures have formed a textbook consolidation pattern:

In addition, chocolate bears have failed to register an oversold reading as the bulls have maintained control during this consolidation phase.

We like owning cocoa futures above 6,900, with a target of 11,700 over the coming 2-4 months.

Sugar futures look poised to retest last year's high:

After rallying 20% in a single week last month, the sweet commodity has formed a sweet bullish continuation pattern. If and when this pattern is resolved, we want to own sugar futures in anticipation of a fresh leg higher.

In addition to the chart pattern, the bulls registered a 14-day RSI reading above 80 during the last leg higher, as they were in...