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Another Quarter, Another Fade 📉

May 19, 2025

Applied Materials $AMAT can’t catch a break.

The company reported mixed results last week, and the stock dropped 5.3% on Friday.

This marked its 5th consecutive negative earnings reaction. 

That’s not a one-off... 

That’s a trend, and not the good kind.

This is one of the most important names in the semiconductor supply chain. 

If this is how the market treats it after a decent report, we’ve got to ask: what’s really going on here?

Once again, price is running into overhead supply, and once again, sellers are showing up in force.

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇

*Click the image to enlarge it

Take-Two Interactive Software $TTWO had the best reaction score after reporting mixed results.

The company reported revenues of $1.58B, versus the expected $1.55B, and earnings per share of $1.08, versus the expected $1.10. 

Applied Materials $AMAT had the worst reaction score after reporting mixed results.

The company reported revenues of $7.10B, versus the $7.13B estimate, and earnings per share of $2.39, versus the $2.31 estimate.

Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with these reports 👇

TTWO snapped a 4 quarter beat streak:

Take-Two Interactive Software fell 2.4% after this earnings report, and here's why:

  • Fiscal 2025 GAAP net loss was $3.73 billion, compared to a $2.90 billion loss the previous year.
  • Management issued a fiscal 2026 bookings forecast of $5.9B to $6.0B, which was below Wall Street's revised expectation of $6.46B.
  • This shortfall was primarily attributed to the delay of "Grand Theft Auto VI" into fiscal 2027, which pushed out a major revenue driver and disappointed investors who had anticipated a nearer-term boost.

Investors have been anticipating the launch of GTA VI for years, and the company's delay in its release once again poses a significant headwind to the stock.

The stock recently put the finishing touches on a textbook multi-year accumulation pattern, but the resolution has been far from decisive.

We wouldn't be surprised to see the price churn around the breakout level for another quarter before it makes a fresh leg higher.

If TTWO is above 215, the path of least resistance is sideways to higher for the foreseeable future.

AMAT has been punished for 5 consecutive earnings reports:

Applied Materials fell 5.3% after this earnings report, and here's why:

  • Management's Q3 2025 revenue outlook was $7.20B (plus or minus $500M), which, while in line with consensus, signaled ongoing headwinds and uncertainty.
  • They also emphasized that ongoing risks, such as additional export regulations, tariffs, global trade issues, and geopolitical turmoil, could further impact demand and operational performance.
  • Their services business has already been negatively affected by lower China business due to trade restrictions.

This company is one of the most important in the entire semiconductor industry. This extremely negative trend in earnings reactions is not just a significant headwind for the company, but also for the industry more broadly.

The price tried to break out of a multi-year accumulation pattern early last year, but the bears capped the rally in the summer.

The stock has now carved out a distribution pattern and resolved it to the downside.

If AMAT is below 167, the path of least resistance is likely to remain lower for the foreseeable future.

Thank you for reading.

- The Beat Report Team 


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