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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Green Flags

June 3, 2025

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The market bottomed in April and hasn’t looked back. 

The V-shape recovery scenario is playing out — and stocks are delivering across the board. 

We saw the signs early — momentum thrusts, rotation into risk-on areas like tech and industrials, international expansion. 

These things made us confident we’d seen a valid reversal. 

And now we’re seeing the natural next step: continuation patterns breaking out. ...

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The Strazza Letter

Currency Report: Scandinavian Scoop ‘n Score

June 3, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza

Have you ever heard of the Nokkie-Stokkie?

It’s forex trader lingo for the Norwegian Krone/Swedish Krona… and right now this obscure cross is setting up for a classic failed breakdown.

After undercutting key support in early May, it’s snapping back toward this level now. And with each passing day, it’s looking more and more like a bear trap.

We’re not just writing about this unheard-of FX pair to amuse you. Believe it or not, the currency pair carries valuable insights.

It’s one of our most trusted intermarket energy whisperers.

So it's no surprise the scoop-n-score setup in the NOK/SEK looks almost identical to the one in Crude Oil Futures:

 

Crude is working on its own bear trap — carving out a tactical reversal pattern just below a shelf of former support.

...

Bart's Charts

EFA - sell pattern completing/complete

June 3, 2025

EFA has multiple confluent projections and extensions in the 89-93 area.  This should prove to be major resistance for now.  Additionally, take note of the blue highlighted 3 drives to a top pattern.  The key to this pattern - note the 'time' component between the drives.  The time and price symmetry is very nice.  If we make it thru the top of the sell pattern range (approximately 94) then expect price to target in/around 100 which represents the top of the trend channel denoted by the dashed grey trendlines.

 
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Our Inner Market Is Always Speaking

June 3, 2025

In trading, most of us chase systems, setups, signals, and edge. And while all of those matter, they pale in comparison to this one truth:

We don’t see the market as it is—we see it as we are.

Every chart we analyze, every trade we take, every hesitation we feel… it’s all colored by our own internal filters: our fears, hopes, beliefs, memories, and projections.

What we think is a battle with the market is often just a conversation with ourselves.

This is the Inner Market.

And if you’ve ever wondered why it’s so hard to “just follow your plan,” or why you keep making the same mistakes even when you know better—it’s probably not because of your strategy. It’s because of your relationship with yourself.

That’s why I’m incredibly excited to be hosting a live conversation with Andrew Menaker, PhD—a renowned trading psychologist who’s spent many years working with professional traders to help them build self-awareness, self-trust, and psychological resilience.

Trading Psychology = Know Thyself + Be Thyself + Accept Thyself

This isn’t just philosophy—it’s the core of consistent...

Macke's Retail Roundup,
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Target's Broken Stores

June 3, 2025

Last weekend Barron's suggested it had the fix for what ails Target. In a piece harkening back to May's "Target Fails. Again" piece, Barron's said Target needs to unlock merchandise, get better in-stock levels, get out of the DEI business, and invest more in the infrastructure to make the Internet business profitable. 

It might be more simple than that. Click the Link and I'll explain how to tell Target is broken right when you walk in the door.

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/3/25

June 3, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLE.
  2. No adjustments since the last report.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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The Short Report (06-03-2025)

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via...

A New Leader in Software Emerges 📈

June 3, 2025

There weren’t any S&P 500 earnings reactions yesterday…

But one recent move continues to stand out.

Toast $TOST is quietly becoming one of the most compelling growth stories in the entire software space.

Originally built to serve restaurants, the company is scaling far beyond its roots.

This $25B vertical SaaS giant is modernizing one of the economy's most fragmented and underserved industries.

They're transforming how restaurants manage everything from point-of-sale and payroll to online ordering, delivery, and inventory.

It's building the operating system for the restaurant industry.

The total addressable market is enormous. And they're just getting started.

After years of unprofitability, the company has flipped the script. 

They have turned EBITDA positive, and top-line growth is accelerating. 

The market is taking notice, rewarding the stock for 5 of its last 6 earnings reports. 

On a relative basis, it's becoming a clear leader in the software space.

This is no longer a turnaround story.

It’s a breakout story.

TOST is breaking out relative to its peers 📈...
Hot Corner Insider

Director Chintapalli Reports a $1.1 Million $WNS Purchase

June 3, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌WNS (Holdings) Ltd $WNS – Director Anil Chintapalli just filed a $1.1 million Form 4. That’s a sizable bet on an Indian IT services name that doesn’t usually see much insider action.

📌 WEX Inc $WEX – President and CEO Melissa Smith bought $500,000 in stock. That’s a strong show of confidence from the top seat. 

When the C-suite gets involved at this scale, it’s worth paying attention, especially when the purchase comes at a key level of support. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 2, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Capitol Hill is getting active again....

The Daily Number

Risk? Accepted. Momentum? Rewarded.📈

June 3, 2025

Today's number is... 41

The relative ratio of the Momentum Index versus the S&P 500 Index has reached a fresh 41-month new high.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The black line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of the Momentum Index versus the S&P 500 Index.
  • The red line is the 200-day moving average of the relative ratio.
  • The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the relative ratio.
  • The green and red line in the bottom panel represents the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the relative ratio. When the line is green, it indicates that the daily RSI is in a bullish regime, while a red line signifies that the daily RSI is in a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: This ratio just broke out to its highest level since December 2021. That tells me something simple… Investors are getting more aggressive. 

They’re buying strength. They want exposure to risk...

The Strazza Letter

Coils and Commodities

June 2, 2025

The way I learned it is that gold moves first. 

And then copper. 

And finally crude oil. 

That’s the intermarket theory and order I’m familiar with for commodities. 

Jason and the guys at Gold Rush do a great job of covering intermarket relationships and what they all mean. 

They’ve been all over these commodity trends all year. Some have been great, like gold. Others are messy, like copper. And some downright bad, like crude. It’s been a mixed bag to say the least. 

But today, all the buzz is about silver. It’s having its best day of the year as it rips higher out of a bull flag. 

 

Our volatility squeeze indicator suggests a big move is brewing, and there is plenty of runway considering the pattern hasn’t even broken out yet. 35.25...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

A Major Breakout for Miners

June 2, 2025

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Gold has been one of the strongest and clearest uptrends in the market this year.

While most investors have been glued to recession headlines or getting whipped around by the latest macro drama, gold’s been quietly leading — breaking out to new all-time highs and holding them like a champ.

And now the strength is spreading.

Silver’s finally catching a strong bid. Copper’s perking up. And the miners are finally breaking out.

The Junior...

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[Gold Rush] Classic Rotation in Motion 📈

June 2, 2025

We’ve seen this before.

Gold quietly builds momentum, breaks out to new highs, and suddenly the whole world starts paying attention. 

Then Silver wakes up violently. 

And the miners? They go vertical.

This playbook isn’t new. It’s just unfolding again.

Right now, Gold is trading at all-time highs, Silver is coiling under decade-long resistance, and Silver miners are showing early signs of a major trend reversal relative to the underlying commodity.

The stage is set, and the next act could be explosive.

Let’s break it down 👇
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The Minor Leaguers (06-02-2025)

June 2, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

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[Options Premium] Covering my Brokerage Bases

June 2, 2025

Last week, I got involved in Coinbase as a play on a new alt-season being on the cusp of breaking out. But Coinbase isn't the only brokerage with a chart that looks great.

Another one broke out to a post-IPO high today and I'm getting involved to broaden my exposure to this space.