Today's number is... 20

Yesterday, we saw the S&P 500 close down 1.6%. This marks the 20th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column represents the year, while each subsequent column indicates the number of large down days for that year, ranging by declines of 1%, 2%, and 3% or more and total count.

The Takeaway: That’s the 20th time this year it has fallen by 1% or more in a single day.

It sounds like a lot, but it’s not unusual. Since 1950, the average year has about 25 of these moves. So we’re still below that.

Still, 20 is a good point to pause and ask: Is this normal volatility, or something more?

If there were real fear, we’d likely see huge spikes in the VIX or credit spreads. So far, we haven’t.

Volatility is part of any market, even in strong years. But price tells the story. A few isolated drops don’t mean much. A cluster of them might.

If we start seeing five or six of these in a short time, that could signal a...

I don’t know much about Peru, outside of the fact that they make some great ceviche.

But I’ve been thinking about the country a lot today.

MSCI Peru $EPU was on a short list of international ETFs that made new highs today.

At first, I was puzzled by this. It was a sea of red out there. Everything got hit. Not just in the US, but across the globe. 

Then I looked at the funds holdings and realized how it happened. EPU is basically a big basket of metals stocks. 50% of the fund is invested in materials. 

Here it is resolving higher from a multi-year base:

Gold and silver miners were the only stocks that worked today. Both of the shiny metals look fantastic, and I think silver is just breaking out now. 

EPU’s exposure to...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

The Canadian dollar is catching a bid. 

And while the CAD rarely grabs headlines like the euro, pound, or yen, it’s no backbencher—it makes up 9% of the US Dollar Index $DXY, just behind the big three.

It flies under the radar of most investors, and I think that’s a big mistake.

Here’s why.

After years of sliding, the CAD/USD rallied off a major level of support near 0.68—a level that’s marked key turning points in both the currency and Canadian stocks for over a decade.

This bounce looks small now, but it matters.

We’ve talked a lot about how EM currencies tend to drive their respective stock markets. When a “peso” rallies, local equities tend to follow. That effect is stronger in emerging markets because of the heavier reliance on USD funding and the volatility of the currencies there.

Canada, on the other hand, has deep, liquid capital markets, a resource-heavy economy, and two major stock...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

It's been awhile since I've talked about one of my favorite setups: The Hundred-Dolla-Roll!

Stocks that are making fresh-all time highs above $80 per share tend to run to $100. Not all in one day. But the tractor beam, magnet, whatever you want to call the collective market mindset that is responsible for moves just seems to pull stocks to that big, round, sexy number.

Markets and prices are driven by humans (and the algorithms we write), and human behavior is sometimes so predictably reliable.

We've got a trade today that is taking advantage of this reliability.

On last Sunday's show we spent some time on Uber identifying the most recent high as a very important inflection point.  For those that are more risk adverse, a monthly closing below 80 would be the signal to short UBER.  Note the strength of the two candles coming into this high. Due to this, waiting for a signal reversal candle on a weekly or monthly basis is advisable.  Today's -4% down move puts probability in our favor that the pattern will hold, but you never know. It's all probability and just a pattern.

Everything wrong at Target is great for TJX, which reported yet another quarter of Beat EPS, Beat Revs, Low-Ball Guidance quarter.

Shares for both are flat for the moment but, having just gotten off the TJX call I can share with all confidence that these companies are going in very different directions. TJX comps were higher in every category, making a mockery of the "consumer uncertainty" Target claims is holding back discretionary spending. 

The quibbles with TJX' quarter (stable margins, no explosive growth, constant, steady improvement) are benefits to the stock. They aren't flashy. They simply kick-ass. On today's call TJX said they want every 10th hanger to "seem priced almost too low, if that makes sense".

At that point I threw my hands in the air and wept for not having owned this stock for the last 5 years. TJX doesn't have committees to speed learning or elaborate turnaround programs. They delight customers with Old School merchant magic.

How's that working out?

Pretty dang well.

TJX Grade: A 

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolling XLI position to July options
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Home Depot $HD just can’t seem to turn the corner.

The company reported mixed results, and once again, the market punished the stock. 

This marks the 3rd negative earnings reaction in the last 5 quarters. 

It’s not hard to see why the market is consistently punishing the stock for reporting earnings.

Margins are under pressure. 

Earnings are declining.

And guidance? Not encouraging... Management expects another drop in EPS for fiscal 2025.

That’s not the kind of fundamental story investors want to back right now.

This isn’t just a bad quarter. It’s a negative fundamental trend. 

The market continues to respond in the same way: sell first, ask questions later.

So what else did we learn from the Home Depot earnings report? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Home Depot $HD fell 0.61% and had a reaction score of -0.17 after reporting mixed results.

The...

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Patrick Industries $PATK - Chairman and CEO Todd Cleveland just filed a $952,000 Form 4. That’s the largest open-market buy we've seen in the space recently.

When the top brass is this convicted, we pay attention.

📌 Hamilton Insurance $HG - Director Therese M. Vaughan just reported a $100,000 open-market buy. $HG has been trending nicely since its IPO last year. 

We’ll keep it on watch for further signs of accumulation as the stock continues its advance.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 20, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌...

Today's number is... 118

It’s been 118 days since Bitcoin last closed at an all-time high. Yesterday, it finally broke that level. This is now the highest daily close ever.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the price of Bitcoin.
• The blue line in the top panel is the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin.
• The red line in the top panel is the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin.
• The green and red lines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the price of Bitcoin. When the line is green it indicates that bitcoin is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: Year to date, Bitcoin is up more than 14%. Over the past year, it’s gained 49%.

The trend is strong.

Bitcoin is 15.6% above its 50-day moving average and 14.9% above the 200-day. Both averages are...

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It’s been over five years since COVID.

It feels like yesterday—locked at home, glued to the news, airports shutting down, vaccine headlines everywhere.

That was 2020 and healthcare stocks were some of the biggest winners during that chaos. Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca—they were ripping higher.

But that didn’t last.

Since peaking in March 2020, healthcare stocks have been quietly underperforming. 

The ratio of Equal Weight Health Care vs Equal Weight S&P 500 ($RSPH / $RSP) has been trending lower ever since.

Now we’re back to where it all started. 

The ratio is sitting right at a major support level. This...

I’m loading up on Silver for a catch-up move to Gold.

And I already know what you’re thinking. Investors have been betting on this idea since last year… and it hasn’t worked one bit.

This isn’t some sort of original investment thought I’m having. These two move together. Everyone knows that. 

But I will tell you what all those investors who showed up too soon were missing…

Animal spirits. 

They just weren’t there. But that’s changing.

In other words, silver is a lot more about speculation, and a lot less of a safe haven. It’s the risk-on version of gold.

It has been stuck in a sideways range for the trailing 12-months while gold has been ripping higher in a near-vertical line. Here’s a performance chart:

What is constructive about this is that it’s been consolidating at...