The Taiwan New Dollar just posted its sharpest two-day rally against the US dollar—ever.

This wasn’t just any rally. It was a vertical move—TWD/USD spiked over 10% in two sessions, tagging a near three-year high in the process.

It caught the entire FX complex leaning the wrong way. It was statistically off the charts. 

This wasn’t a six-sigma move. Or even ten. We're talking fifteen sigma. That’s what quants call an “impossible” outcome. A market move so extreme that it breaks the model. 

A 10% move might not turn heads in a tape where spec. growth stocks like HIMS or PLTR can move that and more intraday—but for a currency pair? It’s seismic. Especially when the pair has been dozing in a multi-year falling wedge. 

That pattern? It just resolved higher. The breakout came right at the apex of the wedge—when no one was paying attention.

With this kind of volatility comes a forced unwind. Exporters, insurers, speculators—everyone caught leaning the wrong way gets squeezed out the door. Fast.

So what’s behind it—but more...

The Mexican peso is the “blue-chip” emerging market currency. It’s long been a favorite for hedge fund carry trades—often paired with the yen—due to Mexico’s relatively high interest rates and liquid FX market.

Beyond its appeal to speculators, the peso has also served as a key risk-on currency—often leading and participating alongside a broad base of international equities and commodities.

Following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum in June of 2024, the Mexican Peso and Mexican stocks took a hit, turning into laggards on the international stage. 

It was clear for those paying attention that the market did not feel optimistic about President Sheinbaum’s economic leadership. 

But the tides are shifting. With a weakening dollar, the Mexican Peso is finding its footing, and Mexican equities are starting to improve in a...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via...