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Alfonso’s Daily Note

A Major Breakout for Miners

June 2, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

Gold has been one of the strongest and clearest uptrends in the market this year.

While most investors have been glued to recession headlines or getting whipped around by the latest macro drama, gold’s been quietly leading — breaking out to new all-time highs and holding them like a champ.

And now the strength is spreading.

Silver’s finally catching a strong bid. Copper’s perking up. And the miners are finally breaking out.

The Junior...

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[Gold Rush] Classic Rotation in Motion 📈

June 2, 2025

We’ve seen this before.

Gold quietly builds momentum, breaks out to new highs, and suddenly the whole world starts paying attention. 

Then Silver wakes up violently. 

And the miners? They go vertical.

This playbook isn’t new. It’s just unfolding again.

Right now, Gold is trading at all-time highs, Silver is coiling under decade-long resistance, and Silver miners are showing early signs of a major trend reversal relative to the underlying commodity.

The stage is set, and the next act could be explosive.

Let’s break it down 👇
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The Minor Leaguers (06-02-2025)

June 2, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

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[Options Premium] Covering my Brokerage Bases

June 2, 2025

Last week, I got involved in Coinbase as a play on a new alt-season being on the cusp of breaking out. But Coinbase isn't the only brokerage with a chart that looks great.

Another one broke out to a post-IPO high today and I'm getting involved to broaden my exposure to this space.

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/2/25

June 2, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in KRE (regional banks)
  2. No adjustments since the last report.
  3. Closed ARKK position.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Consistency Is King 👑

June 2, 2025

When it comes to retail dominance, few names carry as much weight as Costco Wholesale $COST.

For years, this company has been the gold standard for operational efficiency and customer loyalty. 

They thrive in both inflationary and deflationary environments. 

Whether consumers are stockpiling for uncertain times or looking for value in everyday essentials, it consistently delivers.

Membership growth remains steady, renewal rates are near all-time highs, and recurring revenue from fees continues to be one of the most underappreciated drivers of long-term value.

In the latest quarter, the company once again posted a double beat, and the market rewarded it with another move higher.

Despite broader concerns about slowing consumer spending, this business continues to prove it can grow, defend margins, and execute.

The market knows it. And the stock is acting accordingly.

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

Ulta Beauty $ULTA had the best...

Hot Corner Insider

Steve Mnuchin's Liberty Strategic Capital Reports a $49 Million $LION Buy

June 2, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Lionsgate Studios $LION – Former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, now Founder and Managing Partner of Liberty Strategic Capital, just stepped in with a monster insider buy, dropping nearly $50 million.

This brings the fund’s total stake in LION to roughly 15%. 

📌 Reynolds Consumer Products $REYN – Senior Vice President and Corporate Controller Chris Mayrhofer made a solid $514,000 purchase.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 30, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Halliburton $HAL – Director Janet Weiss swooped in with a Form 4 for $169,000. This purchase comes as HAL trades at fresh 52-...

The Daily Number

From Ice to Nice: The Market’s in Spring Training🌸

June 2, 2025

Today's number is... 1

We saw stage one of the breadth cycle... I’m now on the lookout for stage two.

Here’s the chart:

 

The Takeaway: First, I want to give a huge shoutout to Mike Hurley, who taught me this way to look at the stock market!

We recently saw stage one of the breadth cycle.

In my framework, that means Spring is here.

On May 12th, over 55% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day highs. That’s a breadth thrust — the kind of signal we only see at major turning points. It marks the beginning of a new leg higher, not just for a handful of stocks, but across the board.

But first, a quick recap on how we define the breadth cycle.

I break the market into four seasons:

  • Spring: The reset. It starts with a breadth thrust — shown as a green line in our chart.
  • Summer: The uptrend and momentum strengthen. Breadth and leadership move together.
  • Fall: A warning sign. An unusual spike in the 52-week lows marks the “first fall day” — the red line.
  • Winter...
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The Strazza Letter

More Scans

June 1, 2025

One thing I’m looking to do more of here at ASC is share some of the scans we’re running internally each week.

Our roots are in top down technical analysis. We do it better than anyone. And we share a lot of it, but we don’t share enough.

We’re literally running hundreds of ad-hoc scans each week. And we’re going to start giving one away every weekend.

This one is a clear and simple leadership scan, which is why I like it so much. This is the textbook top down approach. It doesn’t get any better.

We start with the best sectors, drill into the best subgroups, pick one, and then find the top stocks.

This week, Industrials stand out as a clear leader—second only to Tech, up nearly 9% in May, and the first sector to complete the V-shaped recovery and retest all-time highs.

Within Industrials, the...

Earnings Signals You Might’ve Missed 📈📉

June 1, 2025

We covered a lot of ground last week.

From some of the world's most important companies to small-cap Aerospace & Defense names, earnings season continues to give us plenty to chew on. 

Some stocks are following through to the upside after strong earnings reactions, while others are struggling with overhead supply.

In this week’s recap, we'll highlight the most important moves and where the next opportunities may be.

What stood out to us last week 👇
  • Monday:
    • Intuit $INTU reported a double beat and closed at a fresh all-time high. The stock resolved a massive basing pattern, entering a brand-new primary uptrend.
    • Deckers Outdoor $DECK reported a double beat and was crushed for it. The stock resolved a textbook distribution pattern, entering a brand-new primary downtrend.
  • Tuesday:
    • No S&P 500 earnings reactions, but we...
Macke's Retail Roundup,
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Video: A Week Of Big Winners

June 1, 2025

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) closed the week up 0.5%, essentially unchanged. But under the surface, there's been a ton of action. 

Though it's been a couple of weeks since we've added to the portfolio, we've been plenty busy digesting a deluge of earnings reports and market reactions. 

Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) just rocketed to new all-time highs on the back of its report Thursday morning. We also heard from Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and Costco (COST) —both uneventful— as well as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Macy's (M), e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), The Gap (GPS), and Shoe Carnival (SCVL).

Some of those names are in our portfolio, others are on our watchlist. So there's a lot going on. Sometimes it's better to let the dust settle before jumping into new positions. And that's what we've been doing. 

With this week serving as the final big retail earnings week—DG, DLTR, OLLI, FIVE, VSCO, LULU, PV, LE, and GIII all reporting—there will likely be plenty more fireworks. 

Here's...

Hot Corner Insider

Toyota Steps In, Insiders Follow

June 1, 2025

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — there’s always something good.

Here’s this week’s most notable activity:

 

The most notable insider activity this week came from Toyota Motor Corp, which dropped an additional $250 million into Joby Aviation $JOBY. 

That’s as big as it gets. When a global giant like Toyota is writing checks of that size, it demands our attention. 

Alfonso wrote a deep dive report on this theme recently, highlighting several trade ideas tied to Toyota’s growing portfolio of mobility investments.

Next up is Xerox Holdings $XRX, where multiple executives — including the CEO, CFO, President, and COO — all stepped in to buy. None of them bought too much, to be clear, but it still stands out. 

...
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(Commodities Weekly) An Uptrend By Executive Order 📈

May 30, 2025

The nuclear energy trade just got a massive jolt of energy.

Last Friday, Uranium stocks exploded higher after President Donald Trump signed executive orders to revitalize U.S. nuclear energy production.

The result? The VanEck Uranium & Nuclear Energy ETF $NLR had its best single-day performance since 2008.

But this move isn’t just about headlines. It's also about the strong fundamentals and technicals behind it.

The AI revolution is massively increasing global power demand, and everyone is turning to nuclear energy to scale their operations.

Top tech firms know this, and they’re investing heavily in small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced nuclear infrastructure to power their data centers and server farms.

Meanwhile, geopolitical instability and the global push for energy security have made Uranium and nuclear development mission-critical for many countries.

That’s the story, and the market’s listening.

Here's the technical setup 👇 

The VanEck Uranium & Nuclear Energy ETF holds the best names in the space, from heavyweights like Cameco $CCJ (~7%) and Constellation Energy $CEG (~8.7%) to fast-growing...

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The Strazza Letter

Healthy Rotation Is Coming Soon

May 30, 2025

One of the things I love most about bull markets is how they try to include everyone.

Everyone is making money. 

Whether it’s growth stocks or value stocks. US stocks or international stocks. Gold or bitcoin. 

It’s all working and we’re all happy. The parties are better. You get the picture. 

And the reason this is true is because most risk assets participate in bull markets

Even the bad ones join the party eventually. 

And of course, we can always find bad stocks that are bucking the trend and falling, but I’m talking about subgroups and thematics. Most areas end up working.

At the end of a sustained bull market, the list of groups that didn’t go up will be very short. 

It’s a hallmark characteristic of the good times....