In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XHB.
2. No adjustments since the last report.
3. Closed TLT at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

There weren’t any S&P 500 earnings reactions yesterday…

But one stock stands out to us in the Engineering & Construction industry.

Construction Partners $ROAD isn’t a flashy name in tech or AI, but it doesn’t need to be. 

This $6 billion infrastructure firm is doing exactly what investors want to see: delivering consistent growth, expanding cash flows, and turning in strong earnings reports quarter after quarter.

The company specializes in road construction and maintenance in the Southeastern U.S., a region benefiting from booming population growth, government infrastructure spending, and year-round construction weather. 

It’s a simple business with a powerful tailwind.

More importantly, they're scaling the business correctly and spitting out a tremendous amount of free cash flow.

This isn’t noise. It’s a clear and durable trend.

Construction Partners has gotten back on track after hitting a rough patch in late 2021 / early 2023 with strong execution and expanding margins. 

The company is now generating more than $126M in trailing 12-month FCF...

Today's number is... 15

AAII Sentiment finally flips after 15 weeks of more Bears than Bulls.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The red line in the top panel shows the consecutive weeks the AAII Bears were greater than the AAII Bulls.
• The blue line in the bottom panel shows the AAII Bull-Bears spread.

The Takeaway: The tide has finally turned after 15 straight weeks of more Bears than Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. 

Bulls are now back on top!

This was the fifth-longest bearish stretch on record, going back to the 1990s. During this bearish sentiment run, the AAII bull-bear spread dropped to levels we last saw during the 2022 cost-of-living bear market and the 2008 financial crisis.

Now the tone has changed.

It’s a good reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift when price rips higher. 

What does this mean going forward?

Long periods of pessimism can create fuel for upside, especially if the market starts showing...

Another strong week for the Round-Up 10 Portfolio with gains last Friday (which now seems like a million years ago) taking us up to over 12% since our March 20 start date, handily beating the S&P500 and the XRT Consumer Discretionary ETF.

Platinum has been left for dead.

We love it when sentiment for an asset is down in the dumps like it is now!

While Gold and Silver have stolen all the attention lately, Platinum’s been quietly coiling just below the surface, building pressure for what could be its biggest move in decades.

We’re not just seeing a bullish chart setup...

We’re seeing a perfect storm of technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment pointing in the same direction.

The last time Platinum looked like this, it rallied nearly 500% in nine years.

Is history about to rhyme?

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Trimas Corporation $TRS - Director Shawn Sedaghat filed an eye-watering Form 4 for more than $12 million of his company’s stock. This purchase comes as shares successfully came off a key level of technical support. 

📌 International Flavors & Fragrances $IFF - Director Kevin O’Byrne purchased $342,000 worth of IFF shares as the stock is threatening to make fresh lows. Year to date, is the sixth insider purchase in this company above $100,000.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 23, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌Eagle Materials $EXP - Director David Rush just disclosed a purchase for $214,000 of his company’s stock. This comes as...

Yes, the U.S. had a rough 20-year auction. Yields on the 30-year almost retested their October highs, touching 5.15%. But that’s not the real story.

The real bond crisis is in Japan.

This week, Japan saw its worst 20-year bond auction since 1987. Long-end JGBs—30s and 40s—are ripping to all-time highs. Not because of inflation or growth. Because no one’s buying.

Life insurers, once the backbone of demand, are out. Solvency regulations crushed their appetite. Reinsurers are selling. The market is flooded with supply, and demand is structurally broken.

Now add fiscal stress, political risk, and an election promising tax cuts—and the bond vigilantes are wide awake.

This isn’t a local issue. Goldman says Japan’s long-end move added 80 bps of pressure to global yields. What’s happening in the U.S. isn’t just about the Fed. It’s about Japan breaking.

When the most conservative central bank starts losing control, that’s not background noise. That’s the alarm bell.

Bond dysfunction doesn’t just mean volatility.

It means inflation.

Because when buyers disappear… you print.
And when you print into a supply-constrained world…...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended May 9, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Intuit $INTU posted a double beat this quarter, exceeding revenue and earnings expectations.

Their strength comes from multiple engines:

• Small Business and Self-Employed Group revenue jumped, fueled by growth in QuickBooks Online and payroll services.
• TurboTax remained a cash machine during tax season, reinforcing Intuit’s dominance in consumer finance.
• And Mailchimp and Credit Karma continued to expand their roles as critical tools for small business marketing and personal finance.

Management also raised full-year guidance across the board, a signal of confidence to the market.

In an environment where many software names are struggling to justify premium multiples, this company stands out for its consistency, diversification, and cash flow strength.

This report was just the latest reminder of why Intuit is one of the most valuable software companies in the world.

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Intuit $INTU had the best...

As you can see from the steady band of green near the top of our rankings, there hasn't been much rotation across the industry group universe.

The same groups continue to lead — precious metal miners, along with growth areas like software, cybersecurity, and internet stocks.

On the flip side, Home Construction ($ITB) has been dragging on the market. It’s failed to reclaim a key support level, even as most major indices attempt to break above their pre-tariff crash highs.

Keep an eye on ITB in the coming weeks.

If even the weakest industry group can reclaim support, it leaves the bears with nothing to hold onto.

It’s a bull market when even the laggards are forced to move higher.

Last week, we highlighted the short-term breakout in crypto stocks.

As money has rotated back into U.S. markets and growth names, crypto-related equities have been clear beneficiaries — just look at the sharp, bullish run they’ve put in over the past few weeks.

But now, much like Technology ($XLK), which we discussed yesterday, Bitcoin ($BTC) is approaching a key resistance level after an impressive move higher.

This is a logical spot for recent gains to consolidate — a breather here wouldn’t be surprising before any potential breakout.

The strength of this rally has already revealed a lot about which assets are likely to lead once markets clear their tariff-driven highs. But in the short term, these resistance levels deserve respect.

Last week, we highlighted the failed breakdown in Technology ($XLK) relative to the S&P 500 ($SPY). Since then, XLK has rallied nearly +8% to close out the week.

This kind of pattern has been a hallmark of the broader bull market — breakdowns that don’t stick often lead to sharp reversals higher.

So the question now is: are we witnessing the start of another leg of outperformance from tech?

On a relative basis, it looks promising. But on an absolute basis, the picture is more nuanced.

XLK has surged +25% over the past month in a near-vertical move — and it’s only now running into potential resistance. A pause here to digest recent gains would be perfectly normal.

While the recovery in U.S. markets has been impressive, chasing strength at these levels isn’t our preferred play.

Instead, we’re watching closely to see how key indices react to what appear to be critical resistance zones.

Two weeks ago, we broke down the growth vs. value dynamic, noting that growth appeared ready to take the lead.

That pointed to opportunities in sectors like technology, consumer discretionary, and communications — areas poised for short-term outperformance.

Since then, we’ve seen that thesis play out. Money has been flowing into growth stocks as U.S. markets attempt to rebound from recent weakness. Just look at the Growth ($IWF) vs. Value ($IWD) ratio — it’s been rallying right alongside the S&P 500.

But the bigger question remains: will the secular trend toward growth continue to deliver?

With international markets — which tend to lean more heavily toward value — outperforming the U.S., we could be seeing early signs of a shift in capital toward value sectors.

In tomorrow’s edition, we’ll dive into the near-term outlook for technology — a major pillar of growth.

The next move could define how capital rotates in the second half of the year — and we’ll be ready for it.

Would you look at that — Greece ($GREK) just topped our global ETF Power Rankings.

Despite making progress on its debt issues, Greece remains relatively fragile compared to the rest of Europe. So what does it tell us when GREK is leading all global ETFs?

It’s up an impressive +35% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has barely moved, up just +1.6%.

Take a look at how GREK has performed since the most recent tariff drama that weighed down global markets.

One of the most important themes shaping the 2025 investment landscape is the growing number of opportunities outside the U.S.

Forgotten markets — like much of the Eurozone — are surprising investors with their strength.

And we think that trend is just getting started.

This past week, I sat down for an interview with the author of Options Trading for Dummies, Joe Duarte, and my friend Jason Perz. We covered a wide range of topics geared toward helping newer traders get more comfortable with options. But what stuck with me most wasn’t a technical point or a strategy—it was an unexpected insight that hit me like a flash of clarity.

It came from something Jason said in passing, and I haven’t been able to stop thinking about it since:

Options traders are always fighting time.

And that works against us in two major ways.

1. Options Force Us to Time the Market

We’ve all heard it: “You can’t time the market.” And yet, if you’re trading options, you’re doing exactly that—whether you mean to or not.

Every options trade comes with an expiration date. That means your thesis has to not only be directionally correct, but correct within a specific window of time. If the stock moves in your favor after your contracts expire, you were still right—but it won’t matter. You’ll be left holding the bag.

Most of us aren’t wired for that kind of precision...

This past week delivered fewer high-profile reports, but the market reactions told us everything we needed to know.

We're seeing a consistent theme: mediocre results are getting punished, and even good reports aren't being rewarded like they used to.

Retail giants are faltering. 

Former Tech leaders are getting faded.

But beneath the surface, a few names are quietly pressing higher on strong setups and improving sentiment.

Here’s what stood out to us last week 👇

• Monday:
  • Take-Two Interactive Software $TTWO reported mixed results and was punished. This snapped a run of being rewarded for earnings in 4 consecutive quarters.
  • Applied Materials $AMAT reported mixed results and got crushed for it. This was the 5th consecutive negative earnings reaction.
• Tuesday:
  • No S&P 500 earnings reactions, but we broke down the bullish continuation pattern in Porch Group...

For traders, being early is just as bad as being wrong. 

And I’ve been early on energy. There’s no doubt. 

We’ve taken some shots with call options and they haven’t worked. 

But I’m also building and increasing long-term positions in the traditional oil & gas space. Nothing fancy. I’m talking about the largest integrated players around the globe. 

Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Natural, Petrobras… I’m leaning into the big boys in my long-term account. How about those dividend yields?

And the data keeps telling me I’m on the right track. 

Pull up a price chart and tell me I’m crazy. Because you’d be right. 

Energy bulls are trying to catch a falling knife right now. That’s a top in crude for the time being…

However, my technical upbringing has me focused on other things. I’m a...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.