Today's number is... 35%

Over 35% of S&P 500 stocks are above their December 2024 highest high.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

•  The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their December 2024 highest high.

The Takeaway: Right now, over 35% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their December 2024 highest high.

That’s the most we’ve seen since February 19, 2025.

This matters because December is when I first saw signs of weakness.

Momentum was slowing. Trends were rolling over. Fewer stocks were hitting new highs. 

At the same time, more stocks were declining than advancing.

Sentiment was bearish—even while the index was still pushing new highs.

That told me the surface strength didn’t match what was happening underneath. So I anchored to the December highest highs as a key level. If stocks were below...

Nice comeback run for IBM.  That being said, an upper target has appeared and it's one we should take seriously.  IF long THEN think of taking some profit or tightening the stop as this level approaches.  Don't short until we have a 'monthly' Signal Reversal Candle (SRC).  We have some time for that ... However, this level should provide some stiff resistance for higher on IBM, if not stop it in its tracks.  OBTW, next target is in the low 400's.  We'll take a peak at that but first this pattern needs to fail before we discuss.  Below is the BUY pattern present at the lows of this swing. What a run.

Here's the long term 'log scale' projection ...

Utilities - what a run! 

Take a look at the chart ... we have a near perfect projection (percentage) and a 3 drives to a top pattern ...all on a Monthly chart!

Folks, this is a VERY important PATTERN and one which could signal a very big top in the Utilities.  About 8% to go ...

Put this on the radar.

I’m liking energy more and more with each passing day.

And the bull thesis couldn’t be simpler.

It’s a raging bull market for stocks around the world. It’s being led by offense. 

Internals continue to improve. 

And like any bull cycle, as time passes and the market grinds higher, it drags a growing list of non-performers higher with it.

Some call it rotation, but it’s really just a broadening of participation over longer timeframes. 

What I mean is that more groups join the party as the bull market progresses. The ones that had previously not been working, start working. We see it every time.

In bull markets, the laggards catch up to the leaders. And not vice versa.

And it’s happening now, isn’t it?

Look at international markets. Even the worst-performing regions, like Southeast Asia and South America, are now working. They’re actually outperforming in the short-term.

And in the US, look at old laggards like small-caps, speculative growth, and transports. They are working too,...

Sign up for my free note here.

We just flipped the script—and it happened fast. In a matter of weeks, we’ve gone from full-blown washout to a full-speed rebound. 

We’re in the middle of a textbook V-shaped recovery. And we’re seeing rotation back into risk assets, which supports the bullish action in the broader market. 

The bulls are back in control.

Just look at Industrials $XLI. It is now the first sector ETF to reclaim its all-time highs and complete the V.

This...

The beauty of these rankings is their ability to pinpoint what’s moving and showing strength—giving us a chance to capitalize on the most profitable opportunities, right now.

But sometimes, the best setups take years to develop. Investors with a longer-term perspective often see their patience rewarded.

A prime example? Certain groups within healthcare, which have delivered impressive returns over time. The iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF ($IHF) is a standout, with nearly +1,000% gains since the GFC lows.

However, in the past four years, it’s been flat.

While this space has been digesting those astronomical gains, the longer-term outlook looks stronger than ever.

Over the same period, while the broader market has surged by nearly +50%, $IHF has been dormant. But that could be about to change.

If $IHF breaks to new all-time highs, it would signal that this space is ready for the next leg higher—and investors could be positioned for substantial upside.

This could be the perfect moment to rediscover what’s been quietly brewing in healthcare.

Off the back of last week’s crypto rally, the Crypto Industry Innovators ETF ($ETF) closed at new highs.

As markets continue their recovery, crypto remains a critical theme to watch. We’re treating Bitcoin ($IBIT) like any of the Magnificent 7 stocks, and its performance is underscoring that it’s a legitimate vehicle for a bullish tech thesis.

But it doesn’t stop with Bitcoin. A diversified basket of crypto stocks offers even more beta—more leverage to this growing trend.

This aligns perfectly with the broader speculative growth theme, where high-beta plays like these are likely to be rewarded if risk appetite returns in any meaningful way.

If the market continues its recovery, crypto stocks stand to benefit from both the tech tailwinds and the speculative growth rebound.

The question isn’t whether to consider crypto—it’s how much beta you’re ready to embrace if risk appetite comes back to life.

Failed breakdowns are everywhere.

It’s been a recurring theme throughout this entire multi-year bull market—just when the bears appear to gain the upper hand, they drop the ball. Hard.

And every time they do, it’s our job as investors to strike—ruthlessly. That means getting long and leaning into strength while sentiment is still shaken.

Right now, money is flowing back into risk assets across the board. It’s starting to look like another textbook rinse-and-repeat of the many failed breakdowns we’ve seen in recent years.

Financials ($XLF) couldn’t hold their breakdown. Now they’re squeezing higher.

Communications ($XLC) tells the same story—back above support, and the path of least resistance is up, as long as we stay above that key level.

And perhaps the most important chart on our radar: Technology ($XLK) has also failed to break down relative to the broader market. That’s not just noise—it could be the early signal of tech reasserting itself as the leading sector.

We’ve seen this movie before. Failed breakdowns often lead to powerful upside moves.

The message here is simple: if the...

Large caps have been steadily outperforming in U.S. markets, even as growth stocks led the most recent leg lower.

But in a market like this, flexibility is everything. We need to stay nimble and open-minded—ready to give a variety of investment themes the benefit of the doubt.

Europe is a prime example. After over a decade of going nowhere, it’s finally giving the U.S. a serious challenge.

Back in the U.S., one area that's quietly caught our attention is mid caps—the often overlooked middle child of the size spectrum.

Relative to large caps ($SPY), mid caps ($MDY) are digging in at a critical support level. It’s a key battleground.

If this level holds, we could see renewed strength in the mid-cap space. But if it breaks? It may set the stage for a deeper rotation down the cap scale—into small caps—as markets look to find their footing after the recent correction.

As Europe is proving right now, leadership is up for grabs. The winners of the next leg higher may not look like the winners of the last.

Now is the time to watch closely.\

The market is...

As the weeks go by, the S&P 500 continues to slip in the global rankings.

It’s becoming harder to ignore the strength emerging overseas. International markets are flashing compelling opportunities—with attractive valuations and a clear resurgence in relative strength giving nimble investors plenty to work with.

Just look at Europe. It’s lit up in green. That’s relative strength in action.

After more than a decade of sideways action, Spain’s $EWP is breaking out to new all-time highs—defying the uncertainty weighing on U.S. equities.

Germany’s $EWG is doing the same—ripping to record highs.

Austria’s $EWO? New all-time highs as well.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets continue to wrestle with overhead resistance, struggling to reclaim its past glory.

With these long-term breakouts now taking shape abroad, it’s worth asking: Is the cycle of U.S. dominance finally running out of steam?

Last week we touched on Aerospace & Defense $ITA as it was closing on new all time highs.

Today, the ETF successfully resolved to new highs and is a key industry group that is leading the U.S. market higher.

While the broad U.S. indices have struggled to recover all their recent losses, groups like Aerospace & Defense $ITA are paving the way higher for the remainder of the U.S market.

So long as ITA is above 160, the bias is to the upside.

The gold bugs are getting louder.

And frankly, they should be. The weight of the evidence is stacking up in their favor.

We’re not just talking about price action here, although that’s been impressive on its own. 

The intermarket relationships and momentum dynamics are all confirming what the charts have been whispering for months.

This is an uptrend. A real one. And it’s just getting started.

Let’s walk through two key charts that tell the story.

The first time I opened a brokerage account, I didn’t know what the hell relative strength was.

I just bought dips.

In 2008…

And like clockwork, the market kept falling... and I lost everything in that little account.

Every damn dollar.

I remember thinking, “How do people actually learn to trade? Is this even possible?” It felt impossible at the time. But deep down, I knew I’d figure it out, I had to.

Fast forward a few years—I'd devoured every book, article, chart, and white paper I could find on relative strength (not to be confused with RSI—different beast).

Relative strength compares an asset’s performance to a broader index. If it drops less or climbs more, it’s showing strength. And strength attracts capital. Leaders lead. That’s the game.

But this flew in the face of everything I was ever taught…

Buy low, sell high... Where does that logic even...

While most of the heavyweights have already reported their quarterly earnings, there are still plenty of names left on the docket. And as always, earnings reports can be a powerful catalyst.

I used to fear earnings season. The old stock trader in me had it drilled in early: don’t hold into earnings. The risk of an overnight blow-up always loomed too large.

But now? I see it differently.

As an options trader, I can define my risk. And that’s a game-changer. I no longer automatically avoid stocks with earnings coming up. In fact, I often lean intothose setups now—especially when I see a trend that looks like it’s just waiting on a spark to resume.

Case in point: I’m putting on a new trade today in a stock from the global life sciences sector. It has earnings coming up, yes—but it also has a...

Today's trade is in a $39B leading provider of software solutions for the global life sciences sector that is on the verge of breaking multi-year highs with an eye towards making a run at all-time highs.

There is an earnings release coming up soon which I think will be the catalyst to get the move underway.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XLC position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...