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Breakout Multiplier

Fading the Top in NVDA

December 19, 2024

There’s chatter about a potential head and shoulders top forming in NVDA. 

While it’s always good to be aware of potential reversal patterns, let’s keep things in perspective: these so-called “tops” have failed all year long.

We want to fade yesterday’s selloff and make the bet that this top in NVDA turns into a continuation pattern just like all those before it.

The underlying trend is far more important than any short-term pattern. And that trend, for Nvidia, continues to point higher.

 

Price is bouncing off the VWAP from August 5th lows.

This has all the characteristics I look for in a failed top, and this week, we even got a little shakeout to new lows. 

I love it when these patterns trap the bears before price springs higher. This is a common way for the failure rally to kick off.

We’re buying the $NVDA 1/24 $150...

Breakout Multiplier

How Greedy Do You Want to Be?

December 17, 2024

This post was originally for paid members only and has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you're not a member, sign up here.

It’s a serious question.

Some Breakout Multiplier members will completely close trades at a max return of 10x. I’m okay with that. But, I wouldn't go any lower because you need the outliers.

I know other members who prefer to hold on to their winners until expiration (after selling the double, of course). 

There will be times when the former will work better. And there will be times when the latter strategy is the right move.

But from my experience, there is no correct way to manage these home runs consistently.

I don’t have a hard and fast rule for it.

I will be more aggressive and hold on longer if I think we’re in an extra risk-on tape.

I’ll consider what the broader market and the stock’s peer group are doing.

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