More country ETFs are beginning to climb up the ETF Power Rankings. Beginning 2025, global stocks have actually outperformed the United States.
While this has been a secular downtrend in global relative to the United States, we are entering into a unique market environment of higher interest rates and widening market breadth among differing sectors. While these trends take a long time to reverse, we could be seeing the early stages of a structural reversal in this dynamic.
Just take a look at the ratio of global stocks breaking higher relative to the United States over the last few months.
Do you think this is the beginning of something more serious or will the US begin outperforming once again?
Honestly, not much to note here so this will be brief.
The same industry groups continue to lead higher, like Internet $FDN, Cloud $SKYY, Broker Dealers $IAI, and Cyber Security $HACK. Further, the precious metal miners have also transitioned back into leaders.
Something that stands out week to week is how persistently green the Ark funds have been in their leadership.
This is a market environment that is rewarding speculative growth companies, and as shown below they are outperforming their alternatives in the same theme/industry. In other words, we're at a point in the cycle where traders are being rewarded for adopting higher risk through less established stocks.
And it's this market environment that is greatly rewarding our Breakout Multiplier trades.
Our three most hottest trades in recent weeks have been an 18x in $HIMS, an 11x in $EH, and an 8x in $PDD.
Both the cap and equal weight communication ETFs top the ranking across the sectors.
Communications has been tremendously strong and has just broken to new all time highs.
Financials $XLF and Technology $XLK also just hit all time highs.
The environment is rewarding owners of stocks. And another strategy that's being rewarded is our Breakout Multiplier. We just hit a 14x trade in four weeks in this market environment.
Large Cap Growth $IWF remains a dominant factor here as stocks close in on all time highs.
But it's not just a large cap story; indeed Small Cap Growth $IWO remains at new highs relative to Small Cap Value $IWN.
So long as this breakout holds, then the bias leans toward growth continuing to outperform value.
If growth keeps outperforming, the biggest winner could be crypto. While the asset class just sold off hard, there is a significant catch up trade forming right now.
To see which tokens our Senior Crypto Analyst, Louis Sykes, is loading up on, you can watch the replay of when he went live here.
Something we've noted in recent weeks is how the United States is falling down the list. Unsuspectedly, we think this is actually rather bullish.
This is because American equities aren't weak - quite the opposite! They're trading at all time highs.
Instead, we're seeing more countries beginning to participate. This points to a growing number of opportunities forming outside the United States; this widening of global breadth is bullish from a macro perspective and suggests this is a global trend, not just a domestic one.
Quantifying this, while the US is still in the top half of the power rankings table, its position has been falling for many weeks now.
The same industry groups are continuing to lead, as pictured by the big block of green on our table. This once again points to the efficacy of erring on the side of relative strength; when an ETF flips green it has a tendency to stay green.
Interestingly, silver and gold miners have migrated higher on the table.
Zooming out, Silver looks to be completing a long-term breakout and catching higher to Gold.
This is clearly a significant tailwind for these ETFs.
Notice how green the top section of the thematics table has been.
The same themes continue to dominate; crypto stocks, speculative tech, gaming etc. China growth is also beginning to appear on this list of predominant themes.
While a large portion of Ark's funds are ranking green on our table, one notable exception is Ark's Genomic ETF $ARKG. Interestingly, it's beginning to transition to a lighter shade of red.
Volatility in the ETF is trading at multi-year lows, which could suggest an explosive move is around the corner.
This is an ETF that's on our radar, especially if it breaks to new highs.
Again, we keep pointing to how many different sectors there are showing relative strength and inhabiting the top area of our sector power rankings.
This points to a wide set of sectors participating, which is positive to see.
Noticeably, Large Cap Communications $XLC looks fantastic, breaking to new all time highs. So long as XLC is above the prior highs near 102, the bias is to the upside.
Noticeably, Large Cap Growth $IWF remains strong on the list of US indices while Small Cap Value $IWN struggles.
Taking the ratio between the two, you can clearly see IWF consolidating right beneath all time highs relative to IWN. Trends have a tendency to persist and this is a chart that is setup to continue working higher.
A major standout here is how the American S&P 500 $SPY doesn't even feature on the top 10 on our global list.
We have regular attendees like Argentina, China, and Israel, but there are a number of countries that wouldn't necessarily come to mind. This includes Colombia $GXG, Italy $EWI, UAE $UAE, and Poland $EPOL, to name a few.
There's a growing list of participation taking place outside the United States, which could setup international equities to outperform the domestic U.S. market in 2025.
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Notice how persistent the colors are on either end of the table?
What this suggests is that the same industry groups that have been outperforming the market have continued to show strength, while there is no signs of this weakness changing on the other end.
Something of note is how Medical Devices $IHI has shown strength while Healthcare $XLV has been the weakest sector over the last six months.
Interestingly, the ratio of Medical Devices $IHI relative to the broad Healthcare sector $XLV is at a key level of resistance. Furthermore, the sector has rebounded and despite its weakness over the last six months has been the strongest sector YTD.
With this ratio hitting resistance, we could see some rotation within the underlying healthcare industry groups which could be positive for the sector.
Speaking of rotation, we might be witnessing the same thing play out in the retail sector, with the market all but writing off Peloton—only for it to explode 20% higher in a stunning reversal.
And even more, Jeff Macke called it. He’s been all over the retail space for years, and he’s got a killer...