Bears just can’t seem to score any points lately.

They continue to struggle at breaking down even the worst areas of the market. We keep seeing it.

Solar stocks are the latest example.

The whole group was bid up today with some huge moves from the heavily-shorted names. 

Here’s the Solar Index $TAN:

TAN suffered its worst single day performance since the 2020 crash following the election in November. It fell over 10% to new cycle lows.

However, there has been little follow-through in the time since. And today, we saw a nice pop off the pivot lows from last month.

Also notice how TAN hasn’t been oversold for more than a year now as selling pressure has waned. I think bears are slowly losing control. 

They are also positioned way offside when it comes to this basket of stocks. Some of the largest short positions in the market are in the indexes components.

And we can’t finish the bullish argument without discussing the obvious political tailwinds under the new Trump administration.

While I’m...

JC has really been bringing the heat with his chart game lately.

I just rewatched the monthly conference call from Monday night where he ripped through over 115 charts. 

He went over a ton of valuable topics and themes, from forex to sentiment and even some risk appetite.You can sign up here and watch it. These calls are one of the best things we do at All Star Charts.

In the meantime, I stole two of my favorite charts from his slide deck to share with you.

Here’s the first one. This is a textbook topping formation in Eli Lilly $LLY with a peak marked by the old reliable magazine cover indicator from October of last year.

The timing from these headline writers is just too good sometimes. This is the millionth example. They nailed it again.

They call them the “everything drugs.” They are probably not, but let's just go with it. This excerpt is all you need to know about the vibe on the street for GLP-1 stocks.

“[GLP-1 drugs] started as treatments for...

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, no stranger to headline-grabbing stock moves, is back in the spotlight with her latest Periodic Transaction Report—and it’s a big one.

The former Speaker of the House is making bold plays in some of the hottest sectors, doubling down on AI, and other growth trends, while dumping shares in Apple.

Here’s an update of her filing from Friday:

Pelosi recently sold 31,600 shares of Apple $AAPL, with a transaction value of roughly $8 million.

While she has been bullish on Apple in the past, this marks a notable reduction in her exposure. We know that she acquired about half the shares she just sold via call options back in May 2022. She made more than 80% on them.

So, Nancy is bearish Apple. But, we don’t follow her for her insider sales, we follow the Pelosi portfolio because it has been early to some of the best trends in growth investing. The Pelosi’s were early to NVDA. She has...

This one is wild, but hear me out.

I just wrote about how the worst groups aren't breaking down.

Support zones are holding and bears are struggling to take control at key levels.

We’re seeing it with both short and longer term patterns and we’re seeing it across all areas of the market. Bulls keep digging in where they need to.

So I came across this pattern in Nike and thought why not. 

Make no mistake this is a purely technical call… for the most part.

I mean, seriously. Nike is one of the all-time great American brands. That still counts for something.

I’m always thinking about the strongest stocks.

Over the intermediate term, consumer discretionary is on top, rallying more than 40% off the summer lows.

So this is one of the areas where I’m searching for strength right now.

It’s the traditional top-down exercise for picking stocks.

The best way to go about it is to use the relative trends and drill down from sector, to industry, and eventually all the way to the individual component level.

While doing this today, I was flipping through my discretionary industry charts, and the relative ratio for Homebuilders really stood out. 

Here it is retesting a massive base breakout level from above.

This is the Dow Jones Home Construction Index $ITB relative to the Discretionary Sector SPDR $XLY. 

If the ratio digs in and bounces higher here, this is a structural trend reversal for the homebuilders versus their peer group.

The relative trend for homies vs the broader market looks similar. We’re talking about multi-decade bases that are just now resolving higher.

We’ve been talking all about the lack of follow-through in recent weeks.

Fons just wrote an excellent post about failed breakouts. Upside resolutions won’t stick. We’re seeing it all over.

But, there’s more to the story. Breakouts failing to print is just one half of it. 

BreakDOWNs are not sticking, either. 

There is simply no directional bias in either direction. Resolutions are hard to come by. False starts, failed moves, and whipsaws are the norm. Both bulls and bears are getting chopped up and shook around.

I wanted to share a few failed breakdowns that stood out to me today, as this is an important distinction to make in a messy market environment.

Here’s Energy $XLE:

After exploring a breakdown to lows not seen since Q1 of last year, bulls stepped in and reversed it.

XLE shook below the double-top breakdown level for a few sessions before digging in and ripping higher. 

This failed move has...

I was talking to a colleague this morning and I told him I feel as if I do my best analysis when I'm writing about exactly what I'm doing in the market.

So today’s post is about Solana and why I’m closing my entire position… at least, for now.

Solana has been my largest and most profitable investment of the current cycle. It’s made up over 50% of my crypto exposure for the past 12-15 months.

But I’ve sold just about all of it over the course of the past few weeks.

As most of you know, I try to invest alongside the primary trend.

I got into the trend reversal on time, and now, I feel it's time to leave the party. With each passing day, I feel more and more like I’m overstaying my welcome.

Here’s what SOL looked like when I added the bulk of my bull market exposure over a year ago:

My cost basis in the trade is around 30. That is exactly where the primary trend flipped from sideways to higher.

You don’t need any special tools to measure this kind of thing. It is shown above with a rounding bottom reversal to new highs, confirmed by the...

Consumer discretionary stocks have been the best stocks over the intermediate term.

The Discretionary Sector SPDR $XLY is leading all other sector indexes over the trailing three and six months.

When we dive beneath the surface, this strength is being driven by a variety of retail stocks.

The largest retailers have led the charge for discretionary, as is the case for most sectors.

Here is the market cap weighted VanEck Retail Index $RTH, trading just off all-time highs:

The largest holdings here are Amazon $AMZN, Walmart $WMT, Costco $COST, and Home Depot $HD. 

It’s all the big boys. These mega-cap names dominate the discretionary sector.

But even the equal weight SPDR Retail Index $XRT is completing a primary trend reversal and embarking on a fresh uptrend.

The largest holdings of this ETF couldn’t be more different than RTH. The top names in XRT are as offensive as they come, including Gamestop $GME, Chewy $CHWY, and Warby Parker $WRBY. It also has high-fliers like Abercrombie $ANF and Urban Outfitters $URBN in its top...

We were super bullish on banks in the back half of last year.

They were the ultimate Trump trade ahead of the election.

The SPDR Bank Index $KBE rallied 45% from its summer lows to its Q4 highs.

We wrote about the strong correlation between banks and Trump’s odds to win the election last year. That was the signal for almost all of 2024. If you called the election right, you nailed the bank trade.

And we did just that.

But today’s action in the banks looks a lot different than it did just a few months ago.

We no longer have election odds to trade on, and the market seems to have priced in all the potential deregulation gains… and then some.

SPDR Bank Index is down almost 17% from its December highs.

...

I’ve been incredibly lucky to learn first-hand from some of the top traders and technicians. 

I’ve gained a deep understanding of VWAP and how to anchor it from my mentor and friend, Brian Shannon. 

He created the anchored volume weighted average price as an indicator and is the VWAP master as far as I’m concerned.

It’s my single favorite tool. I’m using it all day every day. 

In order to use VWAP to gain an edge in the market, you have to know where to anchor it. It’s the most important part. 

I always have mine anchored to January 1st. 

I also anchor them at key highs and lows. For example, most of my charts have VWAPs from the 2022 bear market lows as well as the 2021 bull market highs. 

I anchor them from big earnings reactions and news events. These are always good. 

Whenever JC is out, the Morning Show becomes the Strazza Show. 

I invite some of my closest friends on for the guest segment, and we bring the analyst team members on for a free-for-all market discussion. It’s a blast.

Today, we had an extra special guest, David Lundgren.

I’ve learned so much from my conversations with Dave over the years. 

One of the big lessons I credit to him is the importance of outlier trades. We spent a good chunk of time discussing this on my Off The Charts podcast a few months back.

But, I’ve also learned the importance of having big winners first-hand over the years. Figuring this out has been quite the journey, and it has made all the difference for my trading.

I believe in being overly aggressive and making as much money as possible in bull markets. 

Happy Friday everyone

I would like to give a special shoutout to Tesla and congrats to all the bulls.

This week's new all-time highs mark an end to the longest and largest drawdown in company history.

Here’s the chart:

And now we can officially say that all of the Magnificent Seven stocks have made fresh all-time highs this cycle (and this year).

How magnificent. But it gets better. 

After somewhat of a drought in the back half of the year, these mega-cap growth names are once again the market leaders.

December has been all about big tech. Here’s a performance chart showing the recent relative strength:

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF $MAGS is up over 9%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 $RSP is -3%. That’s a huge performance gap in just two weeks.

The broader market has basically been falling the entire month of December while the largest stocks in the world rip higher.

I think these leaders are being used as ATMs by many investors. Think about it. These stocks are up 100% to 1,000% this...