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Learning To Fall

December 16, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

We all learn how to fall – the sooner, the better.

As adults, we forget this is one of the first skills we learn early in life. For better or worse, my one-year-old reminds me daily.

He’s amazing. 

Yes, I’m one of those proud, doting fathers. But his coordination and acrobatics keep both of us out of the pediatric ER (and me, the doghouse). He pops right up whenever he hits the ground and keeps chasing his older brother.

Pure gold.

Since my mind is always lost in the charts, his agility and doggedness remind me of gold’s resilience during the past two years.

You often hear us refer to markets correcting through price or time. It’s an important concept that can reveal underlying strength. 

The dual-pane chart of copper and gold futures presents both:

Gold corrects through time as copper corrects through price after breaking down earlier this year. 

While gold reminds me of my youngest,...

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China Leads the Charge

December 16, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Equity markets around the globe are getting rocked as we close out another rough week.

And then there's China, which is green on the day.

This isn't just a one-day thing. In fact, it's quite the opposite. China has been showing impressive relative strength since bottoming in late October.

Today is just a microcosm of what that leadership has looked like.

It's had our attention for a while already, which is why we're about to discuss the structural outlook for Chinese stocks and outline some long ideas in the strongest names.

Here's the performance of a basket of international equity ETFs since markets bottomed and ripped higher on Oct. 13:

While China didn't bottom until a few weeks later, on Oct. 31, the MSCI China ETF $MCHI has still outperformed other global stock market indexes over this period.

When we look at the performance of Chinese Technology $CQQQ, the leadership is even more pronounced. Most US-listed Chinese stocks fall into the...

Is ATR a Good Measure of Options Premium?

December 16, 2022

An All Star Options community member recently sent me an email asking about the Average True Range (ATR) indicator and whether or not it is helpful in ascertaining if options premiums are elevated or depressed in the underlying instrument. 

For a pretty thorough explanation of what ATR is, here’s a blurb I found on macroption.com:

That Short Term Chop

December 16, 2022

With the major indexes below overhead supply, you're seeing the choppy action.

There are stocks continuing to do very well, like Homebuilders for example. And there are some stocks really struggling, like U.S. Banks.

But in the aggregate, at the index level, you're seeing the grind.

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Are You Buying the Breakout in Bonds?

December 15, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley  

"Trade what’s in front of you."

We say it all the time.  And it sounds simple enough.

But, with an immense amount of information circulating, it can be difficult to distinguish what’s important. 

That’s why we focus on price. Price filters the noise and useless data.

At the end of the day, it's price that pays

So, if bonds are breaking out to fresh multi-month highs, we should buy bonds, right?

Here’s a quick look at the bond market buy signals triggered earlier in the month: 

All three are still in play.

The five, 10-, and 30-year Treasury futures continue to churn above our risk levels. As long as that’s the case, we want to remain long toward our upside objectives...

[Options] Getting Long My Favorite Kind of Setup

December 15, 2022

One of the great things about options trading is the flexibility afforded to traders to combine multiple contracts, of the same or differing expirations, long or short, to express unique ways to participate in whatever thesis we might have about the future direction or opportunity the market is offering.

Depending on the type of trader and person we are, this menu of choices available either incredibly excites us, or it overwhelms us with analysis paralysis.

I usually fall into the first camp, excited about the choices. But I'll admit to sometimes feeling myself unable to make a confident strategy decision.

So when opportunities like today's trade come along, I get pumped. This is because today's trade is my favorite kind of setup. Both for the potential of the move and the simplicity in how we can play it!

Worst Stocks On The Planet

December 15, 2022

Regardless of whether the majority of stocks in the market are going up or down, there seems to always be a group that just wants to keep on falling in price.

They can't help themselves.

Investors just hate them.

And with that hatred, of course, comes opportunity.

Here's this week's shit list:

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The Short Report (12-14-2022)

December 14, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...