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The Short Report (11-17-2021)

November 17, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions... but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

[Options] Open the Valve to High Prices

November 17, 2021

Wednesdays are becoming my favorite trading day of the week.

What the heck is so special about Wednesday? Well, nothing really. But it's the day when all the All Star Charts analysts converge on a weekly internal zoom call and throw out our best observations and ideas. We start identifying themes. What's new? What's old? Where aren't people looking? Where are our blind spots? What would have to happen for us to change our view? What's the best music to listen to while charting and strategizing? (I prefer anything instrumental -- no singing).

Now, to be fair, when the nerds start geeking out about currency pair relationships and long-end versus the short-end of interest rates, that's when I pretend to be listening and interested. But when the conversation comes back around to individual stocks, that's when my ears perk up.

So, today, when it came around the horn to me, I mentioned to the guys that I'm really liking this setup in Valvoline $VVV that the team highlighted in their most recent Young Aristocrats report.

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Young Aristocrats (November 2021)

November 17, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.” Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

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Hurdles Ahead for the Dollar

November 16, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is pressing to new highs, disregarding what many think it should be doing based on historic intermarket relationships.

Considering the bullish developments and new highs from risk assets, the strength from the US dollar continues to be a head-scratcher.

But will the breakout in the DXY hold, or will it roll over and confirm the signals coming from bonds, stocks, and commodities?

When we broke down the US Dollar Index last month, we pointed out that its strength was rather narrow in terms of how it was performing relative to most individual currencies. Long story short, the recent rally in DXY has been fueled primarily by its two largest components -- the euro and the yen. These two currencies make up more than 70% of the DXY weighting, and the fact that they are at new 52-week lows explains why the index is at new highs.

[Podcast] The Seasonality Episode w/ Jeff Hirsch, Author of the Stock Trader’s Almanac

November 16, 2021

As we make our way through the earlier stages of the most bullish time of the year, who better to talk to than Jeff Hirsch, Author of the annual Stock Trader's Almanac.

When it comes to Technical Analysis, what we're doing is analyzing the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants. Seasonality falls under that umbrella and Jeff Hirsch is the ultimate authority on the subject. He's had a front row seat his entire life to how markets trend during different times of the year.

In this episode, we talk about "The Best 6 months", the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Commodities Seasonality, and we even get to learn a little more about his father Yale Hirsch, the originator of the Almanac back in the 1960s.

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Under The Hood (11-15-2021)

November 15, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended November 12, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

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Follow The Flow (11-15-2021)

November 15, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

Gold Miners don't need Crypto Wallets

November 14, 2021

The worst investment on earth over the past 15 months could finally be starting to wake up.

Think about it, you could have literally bought anything last summer and made money. A lot of money, actually. Except precious metals.

It's been a sucker's trade for a long time.

That's one thing that's made this that much more attractive to me. The angry gold bugs have finally shut up and admitted defeat.

And historically that's precisely when things start to change:

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Buy High & Sell Higher

November 13, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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International Hall of Famers (11-12-2021)

November 12, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Playing a Post-Harvest Rally

November 12, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are streaking higher, providing plenty of alpha across the entire space to anyone who can pry their eyes away from their altcoin charts.

Cotton and coffee continue to rip. Crude oil and the energy space are grinding higher. Live cattle are breaking out. Even precious metals are starting to catch a bid.

But what about the grain market? Last week, we pointed out that our Minneapolis Wheat position had hit our target and that it was time to feed the ducks.

Today, we’re going to highlight a couple of grain contracts we want to keep on our radar for buying opportunities in the coming weeks and months.

Let’s dive in!

First up is the March 2022 corn contract: