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[Options] Monthly Positions Review - March

April 5, 2021

Once again this month, I'm going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of March. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all exited in accordance with the plan as laid out.

Ethereum Breaks Out To New All-time Highs

April 2, 2021

The big news to end of the week is Ethereum completing this monster base and breaking out to new all-time highs.

For me, I don't care if we're talking about Crude Oil Futures, Apple or Tesla shares, Treasury Bond ETFs, Gold, Silver, Crypto....

It doesn't matter to me. It's just letters and math. All that other stuff isn't my problem.

The trade has been to be long ETHUSD if we're above those former highs from 2018. It was that simple. The risk was very well-defined and the potential reward was exponentially greater. That's what we look for. And so far, that strategy has worked well for us.

But now, while stocks are on holiday, Ethereum is really making a go of it:

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Commodities Weekly (04-02-2021)

April 2, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Many of the same themes that we came across in last week's Commodity Report continue to play out.

Overhead supply keeps demand at bay while price churns sideways, offering mixed signals.

Like many areas of the market, Commodities are a bit messy.

While sideways price action and choppy market conditions are the norms at the moment, there is one consolidation in the Commodity space that demands our close attention.

As JC pointed out in last night's Monthly Strategy Session, one of the most important charts right now is the Copper/Gold ratio as its intermarket implications span far and wide.

Checking In On GDX

April 1, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

I think we can all agree that the market is an absolute hot mess right now.

The Precious Metals complex is as good an example of this as any right now.

In this post, we’ll use this shiny group of commodities as a case study to illustrate the mixed signals we see not just here but in asset classes all over the globe these days. 

It’s a major development, to say the least - so we’d be irresponsible not to monitor it closely as the way things resolve from here will likely have implications that span across markets, far and wide. 

We’ll also provide an update of our post from earlier in the month whereby we outlined a trade idea in Gold Miners.

[Options Premium] Think Globally, Bank Locally

March 31, 2021

Anybody else tired of the big banks? Their lack of personal attention, the formulaic approach to lending, the fees, etc?

I stopped banking with "big banks" a long time ago, now doing my personal and business banking with a local bank in my community.

So it's nice to see the team talking about bullish developments and trade ideas in the Regional banking space in the latest RPP Report.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (03-29-2021)

March 30, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

While the same themes we've laid out in previous reports continue to hold strong, we have seen some recent deterioration, particularly in the large-cap sectors and indexes.

Despite an increase in bearish developments, the overall weight of the evidence is still firmly in the bull camp, and we remain aggressive buyers of stocks and risk assets, particularly over any longer-term timeframe.

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[Premium] Details For April's Monthly Strategy Session

March 30, 2021

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Thursday April 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Thursday evening:

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

March 30, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: The evidence continues to suggest we have recently undergone a healthy unwind in excessive optimism. Investment manager’s equity exposure has dramatically pulled back from extreme readings but remains above levels that signals a shift toward risk aversion risk that can weigh on price. Combining that with budding optimism among individual investors and a supportive, neutral backdrop in sentiment arises. Though global markets lack strength from a tactical perspective, the message remains digestion over deterioration given recent breadth thrusts and that the majority of international markets are in uptrends. For now, the reset in sentiment provides upside potential for both optimism and price.

Sentiment Chart of the Week: Risk Appetite Remains Healthy

Hot Mess, a definition

March 30, 2021

One thing they don't teach you in the books is the old Technical pattern, "The Hot Mess".

You know when you look at a chart just churning sideways....

Probably trading near flat moving averages....

Below overhead supply....

There's no real edge in either direction....

Traders are getting chopped up in what feels like quicksand....

That, my friends, is a Hot Mess.