From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @GrantHawkridge
The credit market is overflowing with information.
We haven’t discussed it too much lately… but that doesn’t mean we aren’t paying close attention.
It would be foolish to overlook it. After all, they call Bond traders the “smart money” for a reason... Right?
We’ve recently discussed the theme and likely implications of how so many major stock market indexes - in both the US and abroad, are hitting very logical levels of overhead supply right now.
We think it’s no coincidence that all of this is occurring at the same time. And you’ll never guess what else…
We’re also seeing this very same behavior from some of the most important Bond Market ratios we track, as many are currently running into crucial inflection points.
Readers of All Star Charts research are no doubt familiar with the team's focus on relative strength. They are often comparing sectors against each other to uncover where hidden strength (or weakness) is hiding out. It's one thing to see how a stock or a sector is performing on absolute -- dollar and cents -- terms. But seeing how investors favor one sector versus another offers important insight into how the marketplace is perceiving risk and opportunity.
This analysis often forms the bedrock of our best discoveries.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Last week, we highlighted the USD testing a critical level against the Rand. This is a theme we've been seeing a lot in a varietyof USD crosses recently and will discuss more in a post later this week.
We’re finally beginning to see some resolutions from these key levels, and they're revealing some very valuable information regarding the Dollar’s strength and the likely future direction for the $DXY Index itself.
In this post, we'll take a look at some examples of this theme by showcasing two forex pairs from Northern Europe that are currently breaking downat major inflection points against the USD.
But before diving in, let's set the stage a bit...
What are some of the major developments in G-10 pairs that are driving the US Dollar Index right now?
EUR/USD appears to be finding support as it retests former resistance at its 12-year downtrend line from above.
Key takeaway: The heat has been turned up on our sentiment indicators, and optimism is back to a full boil as we see indexes in the US and around the world move to new highs. While it takes bulls to have a bull market, sentiment running too far ahead of reality can be a recipe for some churn. While breadth remains strong and economic & earnings data comes in ahead of expectations, investor optimism may well be rewarded. If breadth falters in a meaningful way and/or incoming data starts to fall short of expectations, the overheated sentiment backdrop would pose an increased burn risk. Investors who can’t tolerate the heat might want to step out of the kitchen for a breath of fresh air.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: New Highs Across the Board
Large-cap US Indexes registered new, all-time highs last week as breadth slowly rebounds after a period of digestion. Optimism may be running hot, but at least it’s producing bull markets....
This weekend was the 5th Annual Chart Summit. It was a blast (as always) and all the footage will be archived and available for anyone to rewatch soon!
My presentation this weekend was about all the various "bottoms-up" scans we run here at All Star Charts... including Under The Hood, of course.
Therefore, I wanted to spice things up for viewers and share some additional names outside of the usual bi-weekly report.
So I summarized two bonussetups during the conference (which you can watch in the videos, available soon) and I'll outline them again below.
Let's dive right in.
* Bonus Long Setups From Chart Summit Presentation *
Underneath the surface, we're seeing rotation among sectors and the overwhelming theme, when you look through as many charts as we do, continues to be: MESSY.
There's little or no evidence yet that this is the beginning of a larger more substantial sell-off. In fact, the data coming in continues to support that these rangebound markets are coming within the context of a longer-term bull market for stocks.
The, "This is Year 2 of a Bull Market" theme appears to still be playing out.
The world of stocks is not the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. Look beyond that and what will you find?
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In recent weeks, we've seen some rotation back into Large and Mega-Caps, which has propelled the major indices to new highs, while SMIDs are still resiliently consolidating. While the list of negative data points has grown, it's still not close to anything that warrants concern.
Developed Markets, particularly European equities, are resolving higher across the board -- a move confirmed by strong breadth and bullish internals. In short, we continue to see strong equity market...
Welcomeback to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ended April 16, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.
In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.
The bottom line is there are a million ways to skin this cat. Relying on our entire...
It was a 10 hour chart marathon of 24 presentations being live streamed to thousands of people all over the globe.
And it actually worked!
To be clear, I had nothing to do with the Technology behind all that. This was all our incredible team along with the partnership with Stocktwits.
So hats off to everyone who helped get this done!
My job was easy. All I had to do was talk about charts with a bunch of old buddies. I can do that!. It was everything else involved that makes it more complicated. But they got it done.