It's my favorite exercise each month. There is nothing else I do throughout my entire process that provides as much value as my Monthly Chart Review. Here's what stood out to me this month:
Let's start with Papa Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere for 20 months. Flat for over a year and a half:
Click on Charts To Zoom In
Whenever in doubt zoom out. Here is a much longer-term view to really help put things in perspective. All things considered, this 20 month consolidation is perfectly symmetrical with the prior 20 years. What happens if we clear 27000 and hold it? It looks like a lot of upside to me. All of this is consistent with this correction since January 2018 being a cyclical bear market within a longer-term structural bull market. In other words, a shorter-term correction within a longer-term uptrend. That seems perfectly fair:
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk the relative performance of stocks. When assets are in strong uptrends, they not only perform on an absolute basis, but they tend to outperform their alternatives. With new highs in the S&P500 last month, we've seen nothing but lower highs relative to both Gold and US Treasury Bonds. In fact, on a relative basis, the S&P500 is actually down to its late December 2018 lows. Will they hold or confirm a massive distributive top? I think the resolution will tell us a lot about the strength of the current stock market.
Assets in the strongest uptrends not only do well on an absolute basis, they tend to outperform relative to their alternatives as well. In the case of the S&P500, with new all-time highs last month, we've just seen lower highs relative to both Gold and US Treasury Bonds. This is NOT evidence of a strong uptrend.
The question today seems clear to me: Is the underperformance of stocks relative to other assets "The Divergence" that we'll point to in the future as the heads up that something was changing? Or will we get relative rotation back into equities and this was just a temporary blip while stocks consolidated their massive 2016-2017 gains?
What is the best chart in the world right now? I don't know. I guess that really depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance and overall market goals. These are different for all of us.
Today, I want to share what I think are collectively the 120 best charts. The way I see, there is no ONE chart that can tell today's story. But as a unit, these 120 slides give us a good look at the current market environment.
Todd Sohn is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the markets. He often sends me charts that no one else is looking at and points out important data that most people aren't talking about. His unique perspective on the market definitely makes him stand out from the rest. Todd and his team at Strategas do great work and it's a real pleasure to have him on the podcast. In this conversation we discuss the current environment for US Stocks, Interest Rates, Precious Metals and the sentiment driving current trends. He offers good advice for both new technicians and seasoned veterans. If you're at all interested in the market, this is an episode you can't miss. Enjoy!
Ari Wald is always one of my favorite Technical Analysts. Him and I were trained around the same time so we look at the market in a very similar way. Today Ari is the Head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer in New York and we're very lucky to have him on the podcast. If you're interested in learning more about Ari, go back and listen to his guest appearance in Season 1 (EP 2). In this episode, Ari and I discuss the current state of the US Stock Market. Included in the analysis are breadth measurements, important levels, smoothing mechanisms and sector rotation. Him and I can talk forever about this stuff so the time felt like it flew by. We covered a ton of material in a very short period of time. I hope you enjoy this one as much as I did!
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the recent strength in Gold, even in the face of a Dollar that has yet to start falling. After Thursday and Friday's turn around, I think it's finally time for the Dollar to weaken. The way I see it, the relative strength we've seen in Gold was a heads up that the Dollar is set to fall. The correlation between Japanese Yen and Gold Miners on a relative basis is the intermarket relationship that stands out the most.
I've been a fan of Tony Dwyer's work for a long time. Those of you who know me see me approach the market from a top/down global macro and intermarket perspective. Tony starts his process in a similar way at Cannacord Genuity and Dwyerstrategy.com. When we're talking about the next direction for stocks, we both focus on other assets like credit to help identify big trends. We look at the behavior of commodity and currency markets to make decisions in equities. I thought this was a really fun conversation. I particularly enjoyed Tony's comparisons to 1995 and what was going on then with respect to the President's public issues, interest rates, precious metals and the US Dollar. This podcast could have gone on forever if we let it, but we kept it short and concise so we could get to the point quickly.
Do you see how stocks and gold can make new highs at the same time? Who said they couldn't? Why does it have to be one or the other? The current market environment is a great reminder of this. Don't forget it.
So? Should we expect Gold and Silver to keep going?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?