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Energy Is on the Ropes

March 17, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Due to the recent bank failures, this week has been all about the financial sector and the selling pressure taking place there.

However, the price action for energy stocks has been even worse by some measures.

The Energy Sector SPDR $XLE is on pace to fall -6.8% this week, while the Financials Sector SPDR is only lower by about -5.8%.

When we look at energy futures, the outlook only worsens with crude oil registering its largest weekly loss since trading into negative territory in April 2020.

So, what does this all mean for the bull market in energy?

The sector has been so resilient, showing steady leadership for several years now. Is it all over?

Maybe not, but there is some serious damage that will require immediate repair work.

Let's take a look at it.

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International Hall of Famers (03-17-2023)

March 17, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

Goodbye Inverted Yield Curve

March 16, 2023

Ever since the 2-year yield bottomed in Q1 of 2021 Technology stocks have struggled. Growth became the worst place to be.

It was NOT a coincidence that once those rates started to rise in early 2021, the Nasdaq New Highs list peaked, the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line peaked, all the ARK Funds peaked, Chinese internet peaked, Biotech peaked and everyone piled had into SPACs before they all came crashing down.

Because the 2-year yield was rising so fast, and the longer end of the curve couldn't keep up, we got the mother of all yield curve inversions.

The media loves to scare people with it because I think an inverted yield curve has predicted something like 50 of the last 8 recessions.

But now it's bon voyage yield curve inversion. Good riddance!

We're seeing the largest 5-day rate of change in the yield curve since the early 1980s:

Execs Are Still Buying Battered Banks

March 16, 2023

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Alphabet Inc, which revealed a purchase of $18.9 million in GitLab Inc $GTLB.

And executives from some of the most battered banks continue to file Form 4s.

Here’s yesterday’s list:

  • ServisFirst Bancshares $SFBS.
  • Bankwell Financial Group $BWFG.
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers $CFR.
  • MVB Financial Corp $MVBF.
  • Hope Bancorp $HOPE.

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2 to 100 Club (03-15-2023)

March 15, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Six Top Insiders Report Big SCHW Buys

March 15, 2023

As market volatility spreads to financial sectors around the globe, CEOs, CFOs, and directors of numerous US banks continue to buy stock in a big way.

Here are yesterday’s Form 4s:

  • Coastal Financial Corporation $CCB.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp $FITB.
  • Lakeland Financial Corporation $LKFN.
  • Byline Bancorp $BY.
  • Brookline Bancorp $BRKL.
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers $CFR.
  • FB Financial Corporation $FBK.
  • Customers Bancorp $CUBI.

However, the most notable insider activity from yesterday wasn’t a regional bank.

It was the largest brokerage in the US.