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Small Cap Breadth Running out of Breath?

June 18, 2021

One of the most telling and obvious risk-on indicators would be the Nifty Small Cap 100 index. Why is that so?

Because when you look at a market rally, the longevity of that particular rally can be gauged by market participation. This is something that should be viewed closely. If a particular index is making new highs, how many stocks are contributing to that move?

Is it a handful? Is it a majority of the stocks? These are data points that will hint at the inherent sentiment of the move.

So let's take a look at what the Small Cap-100 new highs are telling us.

Breadth indicators are important to see the internal structure of a market move. We get valuable insights from what we see that can help us determine the strength of the trend.

First up let's take a look at the most immediate tactical view. Let's take a look at the % of stocks making new highs//lows over a 10-day period. What we find is that as the Small cap 100 index clocked new highs, the % of stocks making 10-day highs contracted. On the other hand, we got a minor expansion in the % of stocks making 10-day lows.

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Putting The Recent Surge In New Highs Into Context

June 17, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

We’ve pounded the table about historic breadth thrusts since we first saw these readings start to pop up in early June of last year.

It's now a year later, and we're still seeing them... In fact, the S&P 500 recently registered its highest percentage of new 52-week highs in history - absolutely crushing the historic reading we saw in Q4 of last year.

So, why is this important?

These extreme readings are as bullish as it gets and are a very common characteristic of the early innings of a fresh bull market. It's as simple as that, right?

Well, yes... But, not exactly...

International Rotation Points to a New Frontier

June 17, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Thanks to everyone who participated in last week's mystery chart.

We asked whether this chart had the momentum to finally reverse course and break loose from the grips of its primary downtrend.

The responses were mixed, with many wanting to wait for more information... In many cases, looking for confirmation of the impending breakout.

Well, not much has changed as the chart has yet to make a decisive move from this key level.

The chart was a weekly candlestick view of the MSCI Frontier Markets ETF $FM.

Let's dive in and see how we want to play this index comprised of stocks from some of the least developed countries around the world.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (06-16-2021)

June 16, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

And at present, markets are a total mess and full of mixed messages as most major stock market indexes continue to churn sideways in consolidation patterns, while many risk-on commodities are in corrective phases.

The All Star Momentum Scan

June 16, 2021

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to generate great returns.

While we go through our lists of sectors and stocks on a weekly basis, we thought of launching a product that would highlight the names that are the strongest performers in our universe and those that are primed for an explosive move.

Just like The Outperformers scan, this is a list of stocks belonging to the sectors that display relative strength in the market at any given point in time. Since sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market, we will be ahead of the curve before the gears keep shifting.

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Follow The Flow (06-15-2021)

June 15, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity -- either bullish or bearish... but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind... and they're doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

Breakout in Reliance Industries

June 15, 2021

The market has a mind of its own. Who would've thought that Reliance Industries would break out on a messy market day?

If you've been in the market a while, then you know that Reliance can single-handedly decide the direction of the market. Such is the power of this stock!

So what do we have here? Well, after a considerable bounce over the past month and a half, Reliance has managed to breach an area of resistance. And we're here to talk about the implications of that.

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Under The Hood (06-13-2021)

June 14, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood” column for the week ended June 13, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

June 14, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

The Adani Group Solar System (Update 2)

June 12, 2021

Early in February, we had published a post discussing the Adani Group and its targets as well as risk management levels. We published a follow-up post with revised targets and risk management levels in April this year.

Well, it's that time again where we update the levels and see what's in store for this group.

Here's to more rotations and revolutions in this particular solar system. Off we go on our rocket ship to see what the charts have to say!

We created a Custom index of Equally weighted Adani Group stocks. As you can see, this particular line chart only requires an extension in the headspace area. Keeps moving higher and higher.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

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Young Aristocrats (June 2021)

June 11, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.   

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money”. Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.