From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column for the week ended July 9, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a "behind the scenes" look at our process.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Global Yields Threaten European Equities

Last week we discussed the underperformance of European banks and the potential implications in the near term for risk-taking behavior.

This week, these suspicions were confirmed when price fell back below a key level, confirming a failed breakout. Similarly, the MSCI United Kingdom ETF, one of the most important economies within Europe, was unable to break above a significant resistance level around 34. Now, both are trapped below overhead supply.

If European financials and UK stocks are trapped below their pre-covid highs, it’s consistent with an environment where markets remain messier for longer and risk assets are vulnerable.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Overhead supply is a theme we're seeing all over these days. And this isn't just true for the stock market, but it's also dominating the commodity landscape.

Crude Oil reached our objective of 76 and turned lower. Copper remains stuck below its former 2011 highs. And Gold has been an absolute mess since peaking last August.

Even the few commodities that have recently broken above resistance zones -- such as Gasoline and Heating Oil -- have yet to follow through and confirm their new highs in any meaningful way.

Remember, commodities have enjoyed some explosive moves over the past year. Now, many are at logical levels to pause and digest recent gains. This is healthy stuff. Normal market behavior.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

Our apologies for the late delivery as we've all been so buried in charts preparing our Q3 Playbook that we forgot about this week's column!

As many of you know, something we’ve been working on internally is using various 'bottoms-up' tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large - and ultimately mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

As US Dollar strength unfolds and US treasuries continue to catch a bid, it’s no wonder our motto around here has been bonds, cash, champagne.

It’s been working, and it continues to work!

We’ve been downright obnoxious about our tactical view of the US Dollar over the past month.

A potential bounce was developing, strength emerged, and we pointed out numerous crosses in which the dollar was poised for a push higher.

The market environment directed our focal point toward the Dollar. And now that it appears risk is coming off the table, we’re shifting our focus to the Yen.

Usually, when we talk about risk-on/risk-off behavior and the Yen, the AUD/JPY is at the center.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players only.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Base Metals Bury The Hatchet

Dr. Copper often steals the spotlight when it comes to base metals, and for good reason. It’s one of the most economically sensitive commodities. More importantly, it holds a special place in our collective psyche, as one of the major assets that investors turn to in order to gauge the state of the economy, and even investor risk appetite. With that said, the current correction in Copper has raised some concern, especially given the choppy market conditions.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

June is officially in the books!

Now, it’s time to dig into a fresh batch of monthly candles…

As everyone prepares to celebrate over the long weekend, we’re pouring over our monthly charts to reconnect with the primary trend.

And we witnessed some key developments in the commodity markets in June that are hard to ignore:

• Lumber was down almost 45%
• Copper was down 8%
• Natural Gas was up 24%
• Crude Oil was up 10%

Tumbling lumber futures and copper’s failure to hold above its former 2011 highs raised caution for risk assets.