Bart's Charts Articles

X is, once again, approaching resistance.  This base has been building for almost 15 years, so when it does finally go, it should give a nice long.  I've outlined the 'potential' waves that should form based on measured move and targets.  From a traditional technical analysis perspective we are looking to execute the outside return based on the concept of polarity.  In this case, the resistance that has held for 15 years'ish will now become support when price blows thru and comes back down to this former level.   Hence, the name "outside return." 

Additionally, I've outlined an area where this gameplan is wrong and it's time to stop out.  Note, that's a wide stop, but at the same time we have a target that's some distance away. I've calculated this opportunity at 5:1.  

When executing the 'outside return' this has been my experience:

• A LOT of the time, once a security breaks thru (up or down) a long term base of either support or resistance, it will come back one last time and "kiss it" for the outside return.  You can count on it ...
• However, sometimes, it's just too easy to 'run the...

On last Sunday's show we spent some time on Uber identifying the most recent high as a very important inflection point.  For those that are more risk adverse, a monthly closing below 80 would be the signal to short UBER.  Note the strength of the two candles coming into this high. Due to this, waiting for a signal reversal candle on a weekly or monthly basis is advisable.  Today's -4% down move puts probability in our favor that the pattern will hold, but you never know. It's all probability and just a pattern.

Gold has completed a long term projection with 5 waves from the early 1900's.  Most recently, it completed the first BUY pattern and the level held. Today, it went up and tagged a level that represents the first sell pattern since the ATH.  For the bears, this pattern should hold and ultimately take out the most recent low. If you are a gold bug (and why not) then you want this level to be taken out to the upside.  This will add probability that this bull run in Gold will continue, for now.  Key level for Gold right here, right now.

Nice comeback run for IBM.  That being said, an upper target has appeared and it's one we should take seriously.  IF long THEN think of taking some profit or tightening the stop as this level approaches.  Don't short until we have a 'monthly' Signal Reversal Candle (SRC).  We have some time for that ... However, this level should provide some stiff resistance for higher on IBM, if not stop it in its tracks.  OBTW, next target is in the low 400's.  We'll take a peak at that but first this pattern needs to fail before we discuss.  Below is the BUY pattern present at the lows of this swing. What a run.

Here's the long term 'log scale' projection ...

Utilities - what a run! 

Take a look at the chart ... we have a near perfect projection (percentage) and a 3 drives to a top pattern ...all on a Monthly chart!

Folks, this is a VERY important PATTERN and one which could signal a very big top in the Utilities.  About 8% to go ...

Put this on the radar.

I just returned from the annual ISPOR show which showcases companies which tell the 'value' of a therapy coming to market ... thru a combination of "evidence synthesis, economic modeling or RWE (Real World Evidence) studies very smart people are able to create models which show the value - economic and medical for anything hitting the streets.  This industry is reeling ... between the disruption w/in HHS, NIH, etc., the pricing EO, Medicare and UNH we are in a very real pivot at how Pharma/Health Care will be administered in the future.  I don't think there is any going back.  

My good friend, a 25 year pharma executive, told me this week this is the biggest disruption he has ever seen.  Will the drugs and devices go away? Of course not, and they shouldn't ...will the crazy run these companies have been on happen again?  Possibly.  That being said, business models are being retooled as I type ...

Hence, the IBB chart below.  Looks like it's sitting on a cliff of support and just finished a three way move up at the recent highs ... if/when we break the dashed red line of support, look at the near perfect BUY we have.  That will...

Uber has significant resistance a little higher. The amount of patterns coming together is pretty impressive.  In no particular order, LOG projection, 1.618 extension, 3 drives to a top w/ a 'nested' butterfly sell along w/ measured moves all coming together in/around the 90-95 level. Expect this to be formidable resistance to higher.  If it gaps and goes above this level, then believe Uber has underlying strength for a much higher move. Holding judgement till the levels mentioned (90-95) are firmly smashed in a move higher.

Bart

The chart we are analyzing is the US Dollar Index (Monthly) going back 30 years.  

Pay close attention to the solid blue measured move as that represents the largest correction since the Dollar's bull run in 2008. 

Additionally, if you go back beyond 2008, you will see that the 'solid blue arrow' has been very harmonic, representing almost every move lower.  The other arrows are simply harmonics of the blue.  Additionally, notice the 14 period RSI.  We are approaching/at a VERY key support level on the RSI.  Finally, we hit the .382 from the USD all time low and have a classic polarity play all at the same level. 

Technically, the bounce in the USD dollar makes sense.  

Is this the beginning of a move higher for the USD or a "dead cat bounce?" Time will tell.  The 'monthly' candle coming into this level is big and w/ a lot of volume - this warns this level will give away, eventually.  And, right below it, is a projection target at 95.

In this 'new world order' (debatable) currency flows are everything.  Pay attention to the USD and the heavyweights out there - the Pounds, the Swissy, the Yen...