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(Commodities Weekly) Late to the Party, but Ready to Dance 🕺

June 27, 2025

We’ve been pounding the table on Copper futures since China started ripping last year.

However, it has been a slower start than we anticipated.

Now, our patience is being rewarded... We're seeing evidence that the trade is heating up.

Copper futures are trading at fresh all-time highs as they play catch-up with Gold futures.

We're also beginning to see the Copper miners play catch-up to the underlying commodity.

This has been on our radar for months, but we've only recently seen significant changes.

Here's what we're talking about 👇 

The red line represents Copper futures, and the blue candlesticks represent the Global X Copper Miners ETF $COPX. 

Historically, these two have danced together.

However, that relationship broke down earlier this year as the futures reached new...

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The Hall of Famers (06-27-2025)

June 27, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/27/25

June 27, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLV.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Ice, Ice, Baby!!

June 27, 2025
 

You remember Vanilla Ice. Don't pretend you don't.

He has nothing to do with today's trade, but the name of the stock reminded me of him.

Broker-Dealers are showing incredible strength right now, I want to get long the chart that looks the best of the lot.

No Love for Memory 🧠

June 27, 2025

Micron $MU just delivered another double beat, but the market wasn’t impressed.

This marks the 3rd consecutive earnings report where investors have punished the stock despite strong headline numbers.

That’s a big red flag.

This company sits at the heart of the semiconductor supply chain, manufacturing DRAM and NAND memory chips that power everything from smartphones to servers. 

Management has repeatedly identified 2025 and 2026 as major inflection points...

They’ve cited tighter supply conditions, a stronger pricing environment, and accelerating AI-driven demand as long-term tailwinds.

However, the market demands more than long-term promises... it wants margin expansion now.

As investors shift toward names demonstrating operating leverage today, the lack of upside follow-through in the stock is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

It’s still one of the most important players in the AI arms race.

However, until the strong fundamentals translate into bullish price action, it’ll remain stuck in neutral.

Will that change soon?

We'll see when they report again in 90 days.

So what else did we learn...

Hot Corner Insider

The CEO, the CFO, and the General Counsel Are Buying $CTO Shares

June 27, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 CTO Realty Growth $CTO – The President and CEO, General Counsel, and CFO all filed Form 4s totaling $116,000 in buys.

When the whole top team steps in together – even at a smaller REIT – it’s rarely noisy. Coordinated insider buying like this often marks a turning point for overlooked income plays.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 26, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Allot Ltd $ALLT – Lynrock Lake LP filed a 13G, increasing their stake from 22.18% to 25.28%.

That’s already a controlling-sized position pushing even higher. When a fund leans in like this, especially on a stock that rallied...

The Daily Number

Almost All Aboard… Two Seats Still Empty🚂

June 27, 2025

Today's number is... 6

These are the 6 risk indicators I track for confirmation or divergence of the move in the S&P 500 — and right now, four are confirming the rally while two remain neutral, as the index hovers just 0.05% below its record high.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The top row tracks equity leadership: High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, and Discretionary vs. Staples.
  • The bottom row captures macro and internal confirmation: the Inverted US Dollar, the Advance-Decline Line, and High-Yield vs. Treasury Bonds.

The Takeaway: These 6 charts track the tug-of-war between offense and defense. Together, they show where money is flowing — and whether this rally is built on broad support or narrow leadership.

4 out of 6 signals are in clear confirmation mode, lending strong support to the S&P 500’s climb. 

High Beta stocks and Cyclicals are leading the charge — a textbook sign of risk-on behavior. 

Market breadth is strong, with the Advance-Decline Line...

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Junior International Hall of Famers (06-26-2025)

June 26, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Freedom Wins Again

June 26, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

When we look outside the US, even the riskiest stocks in the world are in rally mode. 

It’s not just developed markets showing strength—emerging markets are also breaking out.

Below, we have the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF $FRDM breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs.

 

This ETF is built differently from other EM funds. It ranks personal and economic freedom in countries around the world—and weights the index accordingly. 

I like it for that reason. But I like it even more because it has consistently outperformed its EM peers since its launch.

Among its major country exposures are Chile, Taiwan, South Korea, and Poland— these countries make up almost 70% of the fund.

...
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The Strazza Letter

Fly Your Flags

June 26, 2025

If you see a bull flag… Buy it. 

It’s what we’ve been telling our clients, and it’s been our mantra internally.

This has been the top pattern to profit from lately. Period.

It’s simple, reliable, and works best in bullish environments like this one.

I’ve been putting more and more money behind these patterns over the past few weeks. Not only do they keep resolving higher, but the reaction legs have been fierce— some going flat-out vertical.

Here are two recent examples to illustrate how I trade this formation.

First up: Micron Technologies $MU.

After a strong leg higher, $MU formed a textbook bull flag. I bought the $MU 7/18 $120 calls...

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I Exited a Winner Today — So Why Do I Feel Kinda Crappy About It?

June 26, 2025

Today I closed a winning trade. Booked a gain. The kind of thing I tell others (and myself) to celebrate.

So why do I feel bad about it?

Maybe “bad” isn’t the right word. More like unsettled.

Here’s the situation:

The stock had started to break down a bit on the daily chart, so I followed my process and exited. Textbook move, right?

 

But here’s what’s bothering me…

The stock is still above its 50-day moving average.

It’s still in a hot sector.

And I had January 2027 calls. That’s over 18 months until expiration!

With that much time, why did I feel the need to micromanage?

This is one of those moments where the trade was technically breaking support, yes — but the bigger question I’m sitting with is: Did I kneecap this trade too early? Did I cut off a potential monster winner because I was too zoomed in?

My risk was defined. I could’ve ridden it longer.

Maybe smaller sizing would’ve helped me let it breathe?

Maybe I’m just overthinking? (I do that.)

But one reminder that helps bring me back to center:

I can always get back in.

Just...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 6/26/25

June 26, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLP.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

A Wake-Up Call for the Payroll King ⏰

June 26, 2025

Paychex $PAYX just delivered its worst earnings reaction ever, and here’s why it matters.

This $50B HR and payroll giant just posted its first double miss in decades. 

Revenue and earnings both came in below expectations, and the stock cratered in response.

This wasn’t just a bad quarter... It was a sharp deviation from one of the most consistent long-term compounders in the market.

The company has been a steady beneficiary of U.S. job growth and the formation of small businesses. 

But this report revealed cracks.

Client growth is stalling. 

Margins are under pressure. 

And the forward guidance didn’t give investors much reason for optimism.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for a stock known for defensive stability and reliable dividend growth.

The big question now: was this a one-off stumble, or the start of a longer-term deterioration?

We’re watching closely to see how the market digests this one. 

Because when dependable compounders start missing, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details...

Hot Corner Insider

Director Enright Reports a $5.28 Million $VERA Purchase

June 26, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Vera Therapeutics $VERA – Director Patrick Enright just filed a $5.28 million Form 4.

That’s a huge insider buy in a high-flyer biotech name, and it follows closely on the heels of institutional inflows. Looks like the conviction is stacking on all fronts. 

📌 G-III Apparel Group $GIII – Director Victor Herrero Amigo picked up $110,000 worth of stock.

Like apparel, this stock hasn’t exactly been hot, but this kind of insider activity can mark a turning point, especially in cyclical names.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 25, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Vimeo Inc. $...