Middle East tensions flared up yesterday, and like clockwork, the doom headlines followed.

WWIII. Collapse. Panic. You know the drill.

But while the noise got louder, the market quietly told a different story.

Homebuilders led. 

Silver outperformed gold.

Crude oil dropped 8%. 

Staples lagged.

And Bitcoin? Back above 105K like it never even left.

That was yesterday’s tape. And it was undeniably bullish.

If this is what the end of the world looks like… we’ll take it.

Strazza just came up with a killer chart that’s...

Today's number is... 416

There have been 416 consecutive trading days the 50-day average has been above the 200-day average in the High Momentum vs. Low Momentum ratio.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the relative ratio of the Dow Jones US High Momentum Index versus the Dow Jones US Low Momentum Index.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the number of consecutive days the 50-day moving average is greater than the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: This is a clean, consistent trend — and one that’s gaining strength.

This ratio measures how high momentum stocks are performing relative to low momentum stocks. 

In short, it tracks whether the market is favoring leaders or laggards.

Right now, it’s all about the leaders.

The ratio has been in a steady uptrend since early 2023, carving out higher highs through orderly consolidations, and is now breaking out to fresh all-time highs with no signs of fatigue.

...

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Playa Hotels & Resorts $PLYA – Hyatt International Corp just filed a Form 4 showing a $14.78 million buy.

That’s a serious move from a major industry player. When the big boys are buying beachfront real estate exposure, we listen.

📌 Thor Industries $THO – Director Peter Busch Orthwein filed a Form 4 for $256,000.

Recreational vehicles aren’t exactly hot right now, but that’s often when insiders make their move. We’ll keep this one on the radar.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 23, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 MakeMyTrip $MMYT – GIC Private Ltd filed a new...

It’s happening.

After years of waiting, the entire precious metals complex is finally coming to life, and the charts confirm it.

Gold broke out first. 

Now, Silver, Platinum, and the miners are joining in. 

Our Equal-Weight Precious Metals Index is printing fresh all-time highs, marking what we believe is the beginning of a new secular uptrend.

Miners are starting to lead. 

Risk appetite is returning. 

And short sellers? They’re getting squeezed.

This week, we’re reviewing the latest breakout setups in the metals space, including a small-cap Silver name retesting a key level with explosive upside potential.

Sign up for my free note here.

Since yesterday afternoon, my X feed has been nothing but noise about rising tensions in the Middle East.

The headlines are loud. WWIII chatter. Panic everywhere.

Everyone’s trying to guess what happens next.

But the market’s telling a different story.

Homebuilders ripped. Offensive sectors led.

Silver outperformed gold. Crude oil dropped 8%.

Defensive stocks like staples lagged.

And Bitcoin? Back above 105K.

In the middle of all the chaos, that was the tape — and it was undeniably bullish.

If this is what the end of the world looks like…...

I’m going out for drinks tonight with a good friend who owns a real estate agency in Key West.

We’re going to talk about home prices, inventory levels, and mortgage rates… and I can’t wait.

The truth is, I’ve been thinking about the housing market a lot lately. I’m really into it.

Rose and I have decided to give the mainland a shot and are moving up to the Naples area this week. We’ll miss Key West, but we are excited about this new chapter in our lives.

We took our time searching for a place over the past year or so. In the process, I’ve spent countless hours on Zillow $Z and have looked at a variety of South Florida homebuilder communities— from Lennar $LEN to Taylor Morrison $TMHC and Pulte Homes $PHM. 

I’ve dealt with Rocket Companies $RKT, with whom I have my first mortgage. 

And this past week, it’s been all about shopping for furniture on sites like Wayfair $W.

Every major commodity boom of the last 25 years has followed the same blueprint:

🔺 CRB Index starts curling higher
🔺 Yield curve inverts… then steepens
🔺 And commodities don’t just rally—they detonate.

Look at the chart. 

2001 → Inversion → Steepening → Oil +300%
2006 → Same setup → Same outcome
2020 → Rinse and repeat

And now?

It’s happening again.

The CRB is coiling just beneath multi-year resistance. The kind of tight, coiled spring that doesn’t let go gently. Momentum is building. The yield curve—the most reliable forward indicator we’ve got—is turning up from historic depths.

This isn’t some lagging inflation print. This isn’t a Fed narrative. This is price. And price is truth.

This is a setup that only comes around a few times in a generation. Most investors sleep through it. They wait for confirmation. They miss it.

But not you.

Hemingway once said bankruptcy happens two ways: gradually, then suddenly. Commodity cycles are the same. They creep. They churn. Then they rip.

...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended June 6, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

From a recent Strazza Letter, Steve mentioned: 

Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership.

If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks are likely to perform well in the future. So this is a positive development from a broader market perspective. 

So today's trade is in a lesser known semiconductor name that is atop the relative strength leaderboard.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to ARKK position.
3. Closed GDX at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you want access to these trades in real time, sign up risk-free today!

We expired worthless on our June monthly BBAI calls last Friday. We had already sold a quick double so there was no damage done.

And the thing is, this pattern actually looks better today than when we first got involved. Like we always do, we’re going to keep buying ourselves more time until we get the resolution we’re looking for.

I think it’s right around the corner. Here’s the chart, coiled as tight as ever:

I’m buying the $BBAI 8/15 $6 calls for around $0.30 - $0.35 per contract.

Remember, we already own some exposure via our July calls, so...

On weekends like this, we're glad to be technicians.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rumors flying. Headlines all over the place.

Everyone’s trying to figure out what it all means. What’s next? Who’s in control?

But we're chart guys.

We're not in the business of guessing what politicians will do or how the news cycle will spin. That’s not our edge. That’s noise.

The only thing that matters to us is price.

And the charts are speaking loud and clear.

Money rotates. From one asset class to another. It always has. That’s the game. There are periods for equities. Periods for commodities. Even for bonds.

Right now, this ratio of the S&P 500 vs the Invesco DB Commodity Index tells us something might be shifting.

It’s been quiet—but the signs are there.

That ratio stalled at the same level it did in 2020....

Accenture $ACN is one of the world’s largest IT services and consulting firms — but lately, it’s been left behind.

At a time when artificial intelligence is reshaping the enterprise landscape and fueling demand for digital transformation, most top-tier consultants are thriving.

But Accenture isn’t.

Despite having the scale, reputation, and resources to lead in this environment, the company is struggling to capitalize.

Revenue growth has stalled. 

Bookings are uneven. 

And operating leverage is under pressure.

This is especially concerning given the magnitude of the opportunity. 

Businesses across every sector are racing to integrate AI into their workflows, and consultants are among the biggest beneficiaries of this gold rush.

Yet Accenture has been punished for 6 of its last 9 earnings reports, including 2 in a row. 

That kind of consistent negative reaction sends a clear message: investor patience is wearing thin.

This isn’t about missed earnings. It’s about...

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Marriott Vacations $VAC – Impactive Capital just filed a Form 4 for a $50.87 million purchase.

That’s activist-sized capital from a known activist shop. They’re not kicking tires – this is a serious stake in a name that’s been drifting lower for years.

📌 Lionsgate Studios $LION – Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stepped in with a $5.27 million buy.

Big name, big check, newly spun SPAC: We’ll keep an eye on this one.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 20, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Altice USA $ATUS – Millennium Management just jumped their stake from 1....

Today's number is... 26

June 26 ranks as the fifth-worst trading day of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950. And this year, it lands on this coming Thursday.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

This table tracks the S&P 500’s average daily return for each day of the year from 1950 to 2024. Each row reflects how the index typically performs on that calendar date, averaged across more than 70 years.

The Takeaway: June 26 stands out with an average return of –0.29%, placing it firmly among the market’s biggest seasonal potholes.

But it’s not just one bad day.

It’s part of a broader stretch of trouble. From June 18 to June 27, nearly every day has posted a negative average return. 

It’s one of the most consistently weak windows on the calendar.

It’s a rare cluster of red that’s held up across decades.

And this year, the pattern may already be in motion. From June 18 to 20, the S&P 500 has already slipped by 0.25%, hinting that seasonal headwinds are starting to emerge.

Seasonality doesn’t move markets...

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and this week, one of the hottest stocks in the market joined our Hot Corner universe.

Here’s the most notable activity:

The most significant insider buy this week came from Robinhood $HOOD, where board member Christopher Payne made a $2 million open-market purchase — the first insider buy since 2021. 

We wrote more about the purchase and outlined a trade in the stock which you can read here.

Perpetua Resources $PPTA is another one that stands out.

Paulson & Co. just filed a Form 4 showing a $100 million purchase — bringing their ownership to 45.2%.

Over at Nuvation Bio $NUVB, five top executives — including the CEO, CFO, and CRO — stepped in with buys at the same time,...

Welcome to The Weekly Beat.

As we near the end of this earnings season, there's still plenty of action around here.

Last week, we saw a double beat from a software giant, which resulted in a massive selloff.

We also heard from one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, and it wasn't good.

And with several prominent names sitting at critical levels, the stakes are only getting higher. 

In this week’s recap, we cover the key reactions from last week and preview the setups we’re focused on heading into next week.

• Monday:
  • Adobe $ADBE reported a double beat and fell 5.3% on the news. The bears continued selling as the price closed the week at a new multi-week low.
  • The bears continued selling as the price closed Friday at a new multi-week low. In addition, the stock is below the VWAP anchored to the key pivot low on April 7, 2025.
• ...

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“You don’t need to take reckless risk. But you do need to stop treating your inner-knowing like it’s a dangerous enemy.”

That line’s been bouncing around in my head all week.

I talk all the time about the importance of having a plan and sticking to it. Because, truthfully, trading without a plan is just gambling with a more expensive costume on. I need a framework — some sense of what I'm trying to do, what I'm risking, and what outcomes I'm aiming for.

Planning is visualizing.

When I build a plan, I’m creating a map of what could happen — the likely, the unlikely, the hoped-for, and the dreaded. Mapping out scenarios helps me prepare emotionally and financially for what may unfold.

But sometimes, the market veers off-script. And in those moments, another voice enters the chat.

It’s not part of the plan.

It’s not in my trade journal.

It’s not even easy to explain.

But it’s real — and it’s been right more...

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. 

This one’s a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week, Technology is the big standout—climbing seven spots in our sector rankings.

While Energy maintains the top spot, Industrials and Communications have also gained ground.

Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows semiconductors jumping into the top 5.

Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership.

If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks...