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All Star Options

[Options Premium] A Bridge to One Hundred

May 21, 2025

It's been awhile since I've talked about one of my favorite setups: The Hundred-Dolla-Roll!

Stocks that are making fresh-all time highs above $80 per share tend to run to $100. Not all in one day. But the tractor beam, magnet, whatever you want to call the collective market mindset that is responsible for moves just seems to pull stocks to that big, round, sexy number.

Markets and prices are driven by humans (and the algorithms we write), and human behavior is sometimes so predictably reliable.

We've got a trade today that is taking advantage of this reliability.

Bart's Charts

Uber - out of gas?

May 21, 2025

On last Sunday's show we spent some time on Uber identifying the most recent high as a very important inflection point.  For those that are more risk adverse, a monthly closing below 80 would be the signal to short UBER.  Note the strength of the two candles coming into this high. Due to this, waiting for a signal reversal candle on a weekly or monthly basis is advisable.  Today's -4% down move puts probability in our favor that the pattern will hold, but you never know. It's all probability and just a pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

Macke's Retail Roundup,
Macke's Retail Roundup+

TJX Report Card

May 21, 2025

Everything wrong at Target is great for TJX, which reported yet another quarter of Beat EPS, Beat Revs, Low-Ball Guidance quarter.

Shares for both are flat for the moment but, having just gotten off the TJX call I can share with all confidence that these companies are going in very different directions. TJX comps were higher in every category, making a mockery of the "consumer uncertainty" Target claims is holding back discretionary spending. 

The quibbles with TJX' quarter (stable margins, no explosive growth, constant, steady improvement) are benefits to the stock. They aren't flashy. They simply kick-ass. On today's call TJX said they want every 10th hanger to "seem priced almost too low, if that makes sense".

At that point I threw my hands in the air and wept for not having owned this stock for the last 5 years. TJX doesn't have committees to speed learning or elaborate turnaround programs. They delight customers with Old School merchant magic.

How's that working out?

Pretty dang well.

TJX Grade: A 

 
Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 5/21/25

May 21, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling XLI position to July options
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

If This One’s Struggling, What Does That Say About the Consumer? 🐻

May 21, 2025

Home Depot $HD just can’t seem to turn the corner.

The company reported mixed results, and once again, the market punished the stock. 

This marks the 3rd negative earnings reaction in the last 5 quarters. 

It’s not hard to see why the market is consistently punishing the stock for reporting earnings.

Margins are under pressure. 

Earnings are declining.

And guidance? Not encouraging... Management expects another drop in EPS for fiscal 2025.

That’s not the kind of fundamental story investors want to back right now.

This isn’t just a bad quarter. It’s a negative fundamental trend. 

The market continues to respond in the same way: sell first, ask questions later.

So what else did we learn from the Home Depot earnings report? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings stats for HD 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

Home Depot $HD fell 0.61% and had a reaction score of -0.17 after reporting mixed results.

The...

Hot Corner Insider

CEO Cleveland Reports a $952,000 $PATK Purchase

May 21, 2025

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Patrick Industries $PATK - Chairman and CEO Todd Cleveland just filed a $952,000 Form 4. That’s the largest open-market buy we've seen in the space recently.

When the top brass is this convicted, we pay attention.

📌 Hamilton Insurance $HG - Director Therese M. Vaughan just reported a $100,000 open-market buy. $HG has been trending nicely since its IPO last year. 

We’ll keep it on watch for further signs of accumulation as the stock continues its advance.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from May 20, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌...

The Daily Number

Bitcoin Just Sent a Message. Are You Listening?📈

May 21, 2025

Today's number is... 118

It’s been 118 days since Bitcoin last closed at an all-time high. Yesterday, it finally broke that level. This is now the highest daily close ever.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The black line in the top panel shows the price of Bitcoin.
  • The blue line in the top panel is the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin.
  • The red line in the top panel is the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin.
  • The green and red lines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the price of Bitcoin. When the line is green it indicates that bitcoin is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: Year to date, Bitcoin is up more than 14%. Over the past year, it’s gained 49%.

The trend is strong.

Bitcoin is 15.6% above its 50-day moving average and 14.9% above the 200-day. Both averages are...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Revisiting Healthcare’s Past

May 20, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

It’s been over five years since COVID.

It feels like yesterday—locked at home, glued to the news, airports shutting down, vaccine headlines everywhere.

That was 2020 and healthcare stocks were some of the biggest winners during that chaos. Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca—they were ripping higher.

But that didn’t last.

Since peaking in March 2020, healthcare stocks have been quietly underperforming. 

The ratio of Equal Weight Health Care vs Equal Weight S&P 500 ($RSPH / $RSP) has been trending lower ever since.

 

Now we’re back to where it all started. 

The ratio is sitting right at a major support level. This...

The Strazza Letter

Silver is Leaving the Station

May 20, 2025

I’m loading up on Silver for a catch-up move to Gold.

And I already know what you’re thinking. Investors have been betting on this idea since last year… and it hasn’t worked one bit.

This isn’t some sort of original investment thought I’m having. These two move together. Everyone knows that. 

But I will tell you what all those investors who showed up too soon were missing…

Animal spirits. 

They just weren’t there. But that’s changing.

In other words, silver is a lot more about speculation, and a lot less of a safe haven. It’s the risk-on version of gold.

It has been stuck in a sideways range for the trailing 12-months while gold has been ripping higher in a near-vertical line. Here’s a performance chart:

 

What is constructive about this is that it’s been consolidating at...

US Dollar - Update

May 20, 2025

It's been a month since we last posted on the US Dollar.  Nothing has changed that much, which doesn't bode well for the USD bulls as this certainly looks like a 'dead cat bounce' off the .382 from the all time low on the USD.  That being said, we have a near 'perfect' BUY pattern a little lower.  Folks, this is the make or break level for the USD. Not only do we have a ton of confluence at this level, but we also have the RSI 'cliff of support' staring at us.  The RSI will respect bullish and bearish zones and, as you can see, it's been pretty accurate for the past 16-17 years.   In my humbled opinion, this is THE KEY level for the USD moving forward.

 
Bart's Charts

Gold - Important Level

May 20, 2025

Gold has completed a long term projection with 5 waves from the early 1900's.  Most recently, it completed the first BUY pattern and the level held. Today, it went up and tagged a level that represents the first sell pattern since the ATH.  For the bears, this pattern should hold and ultimately take out the most recent low. If you are a gold bug (and why not) then you want this level to be taken out to the upside.  This will add probability that this bull run in Gold will continue, for now.  Key level for Gold right here, right now.

 
All Star Charts Premium

The Short Report (05-20-2025)

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Options

How Options Dummies Blow Up

May 20, 2025

What are the biggest mistakes new options traders make? 

Who better to answer that question than the guy who wrote the book. Joe Duarte is the author of Options Trading For Dummies, and he's seen it all. 

I'll be talking with Joe, along with ASC Gold Rush Analyst Jason Perz, to answer that very question. 

Tune in LIVE Thursday, May 22 at 2:30 pm ET.

I can't wait to ask him about: 

  • All the classic ways newer or undisciplined options traders blow themselves up.
  • Strategies that newbie options traders should use
  • What to watch out for when selling premium