Simon Property Group $SPG just turned in mixed results, and the market wasn’t having it.

Shares dropped 6.2% following the release, marking the stock’s worst earnings reaction since 2009.

In a market that’s punishing anything less than perfection, this wasn’t the quarter to come up short. 

Fundamentals weren’t terrible, but they weren’t great either. 

Net operating income growth slowed dramatically, occupancy rates stagnated, and guidance was uninspiring. 

That’s all it took...

This is a stock that’s been working hard to reclaim its long-term highs. 

But when your biggest earnings reaction in over a decade is to the downside, that’s not a sign of confidence. 

It’s a sign investors are nervous and no longer willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

Simon’s still a heavyweight in the REIT space. But after this report, it’s clear that the margin for error is gone.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let's dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Davita $DVA...

The dollar is rebounding, but don’t expect it to last

The US Dollar Index $DXY continues to sit near the top of our macro checklist. 

It’s been one of the more important tells of the cycle, not just for currencies—but for equities, commodities, and global risk assets.

Traditionally, the dollar moves opposite to US stocks. But as technicians, we know better than to marry intermarket correlations. These relationships ebb and flow, strengthen, weaken, invert, and sometimes go completely quiet. That’s normal.

Late last year, a big shift took place as stocks began to move with the dollar. It's not typical, but it’s not without precedent either. 

We're in New Orleans this week, surrounded by some of the smartest minds in finance at our Portfolio Accelerator event. 

The food here is incredible.

The music is loud.

And the markets are moving fast.

We put together a special video to walk you through what we’re seeing right now:

We discussed:

• The connection between Gold, Copper, and Crude Oil.
• Why energy stocks are struggling, and where the strength still is.
• Precious metals are leading in 2025.
• And our top setup in the mining space right now.

Some of the most speculative names out there have been lighting up our squeeze scan — and First Solar $FSLR was front and center.

We said solar stocks were catching fire… and FSLR was the cleanest setup in the group.

I leaned into the momentum and bought the $FSLR 6/6 $165 calls for around $2.50.

Two trading days later, and they have exploded to nearly $32.

That’s a +1131% return.

A clean 12X in just TWO days.

That’s the power of a failed move catching fire—with momentum at your back.

Here you can see FLSR failing to complete a massive top with a textbook scoop n' score setup.

From failed moves come fast moves.

And this one came as fast as any.

Steve

Today's number is... 58%

58% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day new highs yesterday. 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 20-day highs.
• The red line in the bottom panel is the trigger for a breadth thrust.
• The gray shading highlights when in a breadth thrust regime.

The Takeaway: Market participation is heating up!

Yesterday, my favorite breadth thrust officially fired.

The breadth thrust I am talking about is when 55% or more of the S&P 500 stocks reach a 20-day new high.

Yesterday, we saw 58% of S&P 500 stocks making 20-day new highs, 

This means we have entered a breadth thrust regime that lasts one year.

It’s not an all-clear signal or a guarantee that the market will go up, but this breadth thrust regime points to healthy market leadership conditions and...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new trades today.
2. Adjustment to XLI position.
3. Closed  USO and XLP at profit targets.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

NRG Energy $NRG didn't just beat earnings expectations, it torched them.

The company delivered a double beat, with a 53% upside earnings surprise and an 8% top-line beat.

The result? The stock exploded by over 26%, marking its best earnings-day reaction ever.

But this isn't just about a beat. 

It's about a narrative shift. 

NRG is quickly positioning itself as a dominant player in the emerging "AI Utility" trade.

They're providing the energy infrastructure needed to power the next generation of computing.

From a technical perspective, it doesn't get cleaner. 

The stock gapped above a shelf of former highs and never looked back. 

It was a textbook gap-n-go, coming out of a classic rounding base.

This was about as decisive a move as you'll ever see.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let's dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

NRG Energy $NRG had the best...

On had to be perfect going into earnings. Fast growth company and priced accordingly. On isn't cheap. It wasn't a month ago at $35 and wasn't when I bought it yesterday at $50.70. What On has transcends cheap. On has momentum, good management, and a near-perfect business model. It's got the fattest margins in footwear.

After running 40% from the lows, On had to be close to perfect when the company reported this morning.

Here's how I graded it... 

Sign up for my free note here.

I just arrived in New Orleans for the Portfolio Accelerator event, and I’m absolutely fired up!

It’s my first time here, and the vibe is unreal.

We’ve got three full days ahead of deep-dive trading ideas, strategy sessions, and exploring what’s working in today’s market.

The whole crew is here—JC, Steve, Sean, Louis… it’s going to be amazing.

Now, let’s talk about Uber.

It’s one of my top picks right now.

I included it in last week’s Jr. Mags 7 post—definitely check it out if you haven’t...

I’m sitting at a Miami airport bar watching the Knicks game and looking at charts. 

It’s been a nightmare of a travel day. Let’s just say there are both pros and cons to island life. 

I'm trying to get out to New Orleans to meet my co-workers and clients at our Portfolio Accelerator event. 

I always look forward to these get-togethers. It’s an opportunity to catch up with JC and the analyst team in person. 

But more importantly, it’s a fun and laid back forum for sharing ideas with some of our smartest colleagues and industry professionals. I always come away with something good. Something I wasn’t watching. Something from someone else’s radar that is now on mine. 

I’m going to give a special talk on how I use VWAP...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended May 9, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Today, I’m headed to New Orleans for our tri-annual Portfolio Accelerator event.

There’s always been something about this city that resonates with me—not just the food, the music, or the unmistakable soul of the French Quarter—but its relationship with risk.

New Orleans understands risk. And more importantly, it understands how to manage it.

From levees and dikes to advanced pumping and drainage systems, the city doesn’t ignore the dangers it faces. It builds around them. It plans for them. It respects them. Just like we do as traders.

That’s part of why this city is such an inspiring backdrop for a room full of portfolio-focused minds. Like New Orleans, we try to hedge our exposure. We use long options, smart position sizing, and strategic overlays to reduce our downside risk. And like the levees, those hedges give us peace of mind—until the water starts to rise.

Because here’s the truth: sometimes, Mother Nature throws a punch you just can’t fully dodge. In markets, that’s when volatility explodes and our carefully calibrated short-vol trades face the full wrath of a panicked tape. Sure, we might technically...

I just checked the app, and my car is rounding the corner. 

He's picking me up for a rocket ship ride to the moon!

I should probably wait. I might be able to buy a dip. But there's a name I've wanted in the portfolio for months. They report tomorrow. Expectations aren't exactly "low" but you don't get many dips in the good names.

Here's why I'm betting on this hot brand ahead of tomorrow's earnings.

Everything in markets is connected. Not in theory—in function.

Think of the market like a human body. Your brain is at the center—processing data, storing memories, sending signals. But none of that matters unless the message reaches your limbs. That’s what nerves are for. They carry the signal. They make the body move.

Without that connection, you become rigid. Movement slows. Response times lag. Eventually, the whole system breaks down.

Markets work the same way and the bond market is the brain.

It holds the signal. It processes information about liquidity, risk, and expectations. The shape of the yield curve can tell you whether credit is expanding or contracting. Whether investors are optimistic or defensive. Whether the economy is warming up—or starting to overheat.

The bond market doesn’t just exist alongside stocks and commodities. It speaks to them. It sets the tone. It sends the signal.

If there’s enough liquidity, risk assets rally. Stocks rise and credit flows.

That’s a healthy system.

Too much liquidity?