From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended June 6, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

From a recent Strazza Letter, Steve mentioned: 

Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership.

If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks are likely to perform well in the future. So this is a positive development from a broader market perspective. 

So today's trade is in a lesser known semiconductor name that is atop the relative strength leaderboard.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to ARKK position.
3. Closed GDX at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you want access to these trades in real time, sign up risk-free today!

We expired worthless on our June monthly BBAI calls last Friday. We had already sold a quick double so there was no damage done.

And the thing is, this pattern actually looks better today than when we first got involved. Like we always do, we’re going to keep buying ourselves more time until we get the resolution we’re looking for.

I think it’s right around the corner. Here’s the chart, coiled as tight as ever:

I’m buying the $BBAI 8/15 $6 calls for around $0.30 - $0.35 per contract.

Remember, we already own some exposure via our July calls, so...

On weekends like this, we're glad to be technicians.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rumors flying. Headlines all over the place.

Everyone’s trying to figure out what it all means. What’s next? Who’s in control?

But we're chart guys.

We're not in the business of guessing what politicians will do or how the news cycle will spin. That’s not our edge. That’s noise.

The only thing that matters to us is price.

And the charts are speaking loud and clear.

Money rotates. From one asset class to another. It always has. That’s the game. There are periods for equities. Periods for commodities. Even for bonds.

Right now, this ratio of the S&P 500 vs the Invesco DB Commodity Index tells us something might be shifting.

It’s been quiet—but the signs are there.

That ratio stalled at the same level it did in 2020....

Accenture $ACN is one of the world’s largest IT services and consulting firms — but lately, it’s been left behind.

At a time when artificial intelligence is reshaping the enterprise landscape and fueling demand for digital transformation, most top-tier consultants are thriving.

But Accenture isn’t.

Despite having the scale, reputation, and resources to lead in this environment, the company is struggling to capitalize.

Revenue growth has stalled. 

Bookings are uneven. 

And operating leverage is under pressure.

This is especially concerning given the magnitude of the opportunity. 

Businesses across every sector are racing to integrate AI into their workflows, and consultants are among the biggest beneficiaries of this gold rush.

Yet Accenture has been punished for 6 of its last 9 earnings reports, including 2 in a row. 

That kind of consistent negative reaction sends a clear message: investor patience is wearing thin.

This isn’t about missed earnings. It’s about...

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Marriott Vacations $VAC – Impactive Capital just filed a Form 4 for a $50.87 million purchase.

That’s activist-sized capital from a known activist shop. They’re not kicking tires – this is a serious stake in a name that’s been drifting lower for years.

📌 Lionsgate Studios $LION – Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stepped in with a $5.27 million buy.

Big name, big check, newly spun SPAC: We’ll keep an eye on this one.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 20, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Altice USA $ATUS – Millennium Management just jumped their stake from 1....

We’ve consistently argued that global markets are set to outperform the United States over the long run.

Now, we’re seeing that thesis play out. More individual countries are breaking out to new highs, and diversified global indexes are finally resolving over a decade of sideways action with fresh all-time highs.

For U.S. investors, the opportunity to expand international exposure has rarely looked more compelling.

But that doesn’t mean you rush out and buy every global ETF on the board.

...

Today's number is... 26

June 26 ranks as the fifth-worst trading day of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950. And this year, it lands on this coming Thursday.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

This table tracks the S&P 500’s average daily return for each day of the year from 1950 to 2024. Each row reflects how the index typically performs on that calendar date, averaged across more than 70 years.

The Takeaway: June 26 stands out with an average return of –0.29%, placing it firmly among the market’s biggest seasonal potholes.

But it’s not just one bad day.

It’s part of a broader stretch of trouble. From June 18 to June 27, nearly every day has posted a negative average return. 

It’s one of the most consistently weak windows on the calendar.

It’s a rare cluster of red that’s held up across decades.

And this year, the pattern may already be in motion. From June 18 to 20, the S&P 500 has already slipped by 0.25%, hinting that seasonal headwinds are starting to emerge.

Seasonality doesn’t move markets...

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and this week, one of the hottest stocks in the market joined our Hot Corner universe.

Here’s the most notable activity:

The most significant insider buy this week came from Robinhood $HOOD, where board member Christopher Payne made a $2 million open-market purchase — the first insider buy since 2021. 

We wrote more about the purchase and outlined a trade in the stock which you can read here.

Perpetua Resources $PPTA is another one that stands out.

Paulson & Co. just filed a Form 4 showing a $100 million purchase — bringing their ownership to 45.2%.

Over at Nuvation Bio $NUVB, five top executives — including the CEO, CFO, and CRO — stepped in with buys at the same time,...

Welcome to The Weekly Beat.

As we near the end of this earnings season, there's still plenty of action around here.

Last week, we saw a double beat from a software giant, which resulted in a massive selloff.

We also heard from one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, and it wasn't good.

And with several prominent names sitting at critical levels, the stakes are only getting higher. 

In this week’s recap, we cover the key reactions from last week and preview the setups we’re focused on heading into next week.

• Monday:
  • Adobe $ADBE reported a double beat and fell 5.3% on the news. The bears continued selling as the price closed the week at a new multi-week low.
  • The bears continued selling as the price closed Friday at a new multi-week low. In addition, the stock is below the VWAP anchored to the key pivot low on April 7, 2025.
• ...

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“You don’t need to take reckless risk. But you do need to stop treating your inner-knowing like it’s a dangerous enemy.”

That line’s been bouncing around in my head all week.

I talk all the time about the importance of having a plan and sticking to it. Because, truthfully, trading without a plan is just gambling with a more expensive costume on. I need a framework — some sense of what I'm trying to do, what I'm risking, and what outcomes I'm aiming for.

Planning is visualizing.

When I build a plan, I’m creating a map of what could happen — the likely, the unlikely, the hoped-for, and the dreaded. Mapping out scenarios helps me prepare emotionally and financially for what may unfold.

But sometimes, the market veers off-script. And in those moments, another voice enters the chat.

It’s not part of the plan.

It’s not in my trade journal.

It’s not even easy to explain.

But it’s real — and it’s been right more...

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. 

This one’s a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week, Technology is the big standout—climbing seven spots in our sector rankings.

While Energy maintains the top spot, Industrials and Communications have also gained ground.

Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows semiconductors jumping into the top 5.

Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership.

If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Commodities are on fire, and cyclical stocks are riding the wave.

Energy names are climbing after crude oil spiked in response to the Israel-Iran conflict.

Meanwhile, the strength is rippling across the cyclical complex. Metals & Mining $XME is breaking out from a massive 3.5-year base, with the potential to rip much higher.

The leadership baton is being passed.

The groups set to lead the next leg of equity market performance look...

Grain markets are showing signs of life.

After a brutal multi-year collapse, many major agricultural contracts are starting to perk up. 

The short-term and intermediate-term trends are beginning to point higher. 

Momentum is entering a new bullish regime. 

And participation is expanding.

We’ve already outlined bullish setups in the futures for Corn, Soybeans, and Soybean Oil. 

These contracts have been carving out bottoms, and they're starting to resolve higher from well-defined bases. 

Now, we're seeing more of the same.

The short-term strength is hard to ignore.

Sign up for my free note here.

The market’s been handing out invitations left and right… and just about everyone has shown up.

Speculative growth, Semis, Industrials — even Energy has caught a bid.

It’s been a broad and steady move off the April lows. Almost everything’s working.

Almost.

One group that continues to sit on the sidelines? Homebuilders.

They’ve completely sat out this rally so far.

The SPDR Homebuilders ETF $XHB has done nothing — just hovering below the lower bounds of a nasty topping formation.

This zone also lines up with the 38.2% retracement from the 2022–2024 rally, adding to the confluence of interest here.

Homebuilders tend to be the life and soul of the party in bull markets.

These are some of the most economically sensitive names out there. When they’re trending higher, it usually means we’re in a healthy environment and investors are embracing risk.

So now what?

Are we betting Homebuilders...

The major averages were lower this week, but it was still a win for the bulls.

Here’s why…

Since the market bottomed over two months ago, the best stocks have been the riskiest ones.

Of course, I’m talking about the impressive leadership from speculative growth.

We’ve seen this story before, though. We’ve actually already seen it several times in the current cycle.

Speculative tech was an area of standout leadership during the Q4 2023 rally.

The space also outperformed in a major way during the post-election ramp-up coming into the year.

But the momentum and relative strength didn’t last in either of those cases…

I think this time is different…

And the relative trend between the flagship ARK fund and the S&P is a big reason why:

There weren’t any S&P 500 earnings reactions yesterday…

However, one industry group continues to stand out: Regional Banks.

There are 346 tradeable Regional Bank stocks in the U.S., but most have been dead money, or worse, for years. 

Balance sheet stress, deposit flight, interest rate risk, and the absence of consolidation have weighed on the group.

We haven’t seen a wave of M&A to clean things up in decades. 

The weakest names are still out there, dragging down the averages like the S&P Regional Bank ETF $KRE.

And that’s why we built a custom Super Regional Bank Index - to isolate the quality. 

Our Super Regional Bank Index includes the top 25 Regional Banks by market capitalization. With loosening banking regulations, these names are poised to benefit from industry consolidation.

As you can see, the index is breaking above the 2018 peak for the first time. After over 7 years of no returns, this is the beginning of a brand-new uptrend.

You won't see that in the KRE, which has structurally broken...