Forget about the selloff in Bitcoin for a minute.

Coal stocks are ripping!

Perhaps they’re giving back some recent gains today, but most stocks are.

More importantly, Monday marked the largest one-day rate-of-change for our Coal Index since 2020…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Chop, chop, chop…

Yields on sovereign debt are chopping sideways across the globe.

The US, France, Germany, Spain, and UK benchmark rates are well below their respective 2023 peaks.

But in Japan, the JGB 10-year yield is hitting its highest level in over a decade. 

Check out the Japan benchmark rate cruising above 100 basis points: 

Earlier in the week, the Japan 10-year yield reached 1.10 for the first time since July 2011. 

While the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank began cutting rates this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may hike later this month. 

You can blame it on a plummeting yen or the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control policies. 

Either way, it’s clear that Japan’s era of negative interest rates has ended, and the previous decade’s easy money environment no longer exits — full stop. 

Instead of contemplating...

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Stellantis N.V.

The multinational automaker revealed another purchase of Archer Aviation Inc $ACHR shares, this one to the tune of $55 million.

Mubadala Investment Company filed a 13G for Aris Mining Corp $ARMN revealing an initial stake of 9.30%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 3, 2024:

Last but not least, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi bought 10,000 NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA shares for a market value of roughly $1.3 million.

Pelosi also purchased 20 call options in Broadcom Inc $AVGO. They are deep in the money and expire this time next year.

Stellantis N.V has been accumulating ACHR shares, spending over $156 million since October last year.

While bulls still have some work to do, this chart suggests a textbook trend reversal could...

The crypto asset class is selling off hard.

This time last week, I was arguing a reset had taken place and with Bitcoin testing support, it was a logical place to see buyers step in. As of the writing of this letter, Bitcoin is making new three month lows.

Following this, I want to see a few scenarios play out before entering back into longs with any conviction.

Altcoins are being slaughtered; I keep pointing to the tendency for such topping patterns to fail in the context of bull markets. But again, I need to see the market prove this thesis before acting on it.

There is also a significant divergence brewing between macro and crypto markets.

Here's this week's crypto roundup. It's an opportunity for us to take a step back, set aside the distractions, and delve into the key charts shaping the crypto complex.

Bitcoin is celebrating American Independence day by falling over $3000 in overnight trading.

That's over a 20% correction in less than a month.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As most of you know, we use various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market...

Programming Note: Enjoy your Fourth of July shenanigans. There will be no new trading in P2P for the rest of this week. Next report will be Monday.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XME position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

File this post in your "Trading Is Hard" file folder.

Back on May 29th, I published a bearish trade idea in Nike $NKE.

Here’s what I said about it:

[$NKE] appears to be hanging on the precipice of a potentially large fall. The company will be announcing earnings [in late June] and I think that might be the final nail in the coffin to send this stock lower (if not sooner).

I don’t know about you, but to me, that chart does not look healthy.

We’re going to enter a bearish bet with defined risk that is counting on...

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a 13G filing by Point72 Asset Management.

The hedge fund revealed an initial stake of 5.00% in Lumentum Holdings Inc $LITE.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 2, 2024:

Pleasant Lake Onshore Feeder Fund LP disclosed a Form 4 revealing a $566,474 purchase in the small-cap home improvement retailer Tile Shop Holdings Inc $TTSH.

LITE has been carving out a massive topping formation for the past seven years.

Price is coming off the range's lower bounds as buyers and sellers battle for control.

For now, bulls are holding the line, suggesting this distribution pattern may fail and turn into a primary trend reversal. 

If this is the case, we’ll get confirmation at the year-to-date highs near 60. We like it long above there. 

In the face of a weak crypto market, Bitcoin miners keep charging higher.

Iris Energy and TeraWulf are two standouts in this space, but the group at the index level is just breaking out offering a well defined entry level.

The rotation into Consumer Discretionary is happening.

And isn't this exactly what we've always seen in bull markets?

You buy the pull back in the offensive sectors during bull markets.

That's literally what the BTFD stands for.

This rotation into Consumer Discretionary has been exactly that - a BTFD moment.

Look at Tesla up 10% today and up 30% since we highlighted the trade right here 2 weeks ago.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The smart money is snatching up Canadian dollars.

Last month, commercial hedgers extended their Canadian dollar exposure to their largest net-long historical position.

While positioning represents a condition – not a signal – we can only view the hedger's appetite for the loonie in one light…

Bullish!

Notice that extended commercial long positioning (the bright blue line in the lower pane) coincides with critical inflection points:

These market turns preceded extensive rallies in 2016, 2017, and 2020.

Before boarding the loonie’s next rip-roaring rally, price must provide a well-defined entry with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.

But the past two years of sideways action look more like a topping or bearish continuation pattern, not a bullish reversal:

The bullish argument for Canadian dollar futures doesn’t improve when we slap on a...

In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza served up the opportunity that is revealing itself in the financials space.

So we looked for some vehicles to express our bullish thesis, while being mindful of upcoming earnings releases that will be kicking of earnings season in less than two weeks.

This is no time to enter trades with undefined risk. But if we can minimize the volatility, it would be best to consider those options.

We think we have just the right idea in Morgan Stanley.

Here's a one-year chart of $MS:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in GDXJ.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exits in XLV and GLD.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

Last night was the big LIVE Event that I host at the beginning of every month.

There is no better way to start a new month, and in this case a new quarter, than going one by one and identifying the direction of primary trends for the world's most important stocks and assets.

Just for perspective, here are the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 Quarterly Candlesticks making new all-time highs, again.

As you can see, these are the types of things you tend to see in bull markets. You do NOT see them in bear markets.

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a 13G filing by Keith Gill, also known by his online aliases "Roaring Kitty" and "DeepFuckingValue."

Gill bought 9,001,000 shares of Chewy Inc $CHWY, which represents an initial passive ownership stake of 6.6%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 1, 2024:

Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A revealed the purchase of $14.4 million worth in PBF Energy Inc $PBF its latest Form 4.

And the former CEO of Globalstar Inc $GSAT, James Monroe III, acquired 4,510,855 shares of his own company’s stock.

CHWY collapsed to new record lows at the end of 2023, briefly violating a multi-year shelf of  support.

However, the follow through was short-lived. Buyers reclaimed this support zone, resulting in a failed breakdown.

We think this...

This is the video recording of our July 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to...