From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

As the market has been sending mixed signals since July, we’re seeking information from our risk appetite indicators to try to gauge the next move.

One of our favorite ways to measure risk appetite is to compare the consumer discretionary sector with consumer staples. This tells us whether market participants are positioning themselves defensively, or embracing risk. 

Discretionary stocks include automobiles, retailers, and homebuilders, among other things. Theoretically, we’re talking about products and services consumers buy with their discretionary incomes. 

Meanwhile, staples are what "consumers" will buy regardless of how bad economic conditions get… things like food, toothpaste, cigarettes, etc.

When this ratio points higher, it illustrates a healthy degree of risk-seeking behavior among investors. Alternatively, when it points downwards, it speaks to a defensive tone and typically occurs during bear markets.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market had a nice move this morning, and then we pulled in when $SPY moved above the 437 level.

Either this recent move needs a rest and consolidation, or we’re pulling in further.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

With investors and executives scrambling to figure out what the geopolitical events of the weekend mean for their portfolios and companies, all was silent on the insider filings front. 

There were no Form 4s, Form 13s, or political reports that meet our materiality threshold. 

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures are bright this morning.

I mentioned yesterday that there's potential to 438 on $SPY.

Are you ready for the end of the year squeeze?

Many investors think it's not coming and that the market is going to crash instead.

In fact, CTAs have never been this short. The last few times they were anywhere near this bearish, stocks went on to have some of the greatest rallies in history. I remember them well:

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Relative strength is one of the most essential tools we employ on a daily basis. 

Analyzing relative trends allows us to determine whether an asset is outperforming a benchmark or its alternatives.

This increases our chances of success as we navigate the markets.

Even though the stock market has been trading sideways since July, the relative trends are very much in favor of technology these days.

Below is the equal-weight Technology Sector (RSPT) breaking out of a 3-year base relative to the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP):

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Canadians!

The market was very resilient today considering what's going on.

If $SPY continues on this path higher there's potential to 438.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One day of buying pressure doesn’t change the situation with precious metals. 

Gold bugs were out in full force Friday, driving gold and silver to impressive gains that would excite even the least devout among them.

But don’t get your hopes up… 

Precious metals stopped falling at a logical level of support.

Good, old-fashioned price memory triggered a standard response – nothing magical.

More importantly, nothing bullish.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

With investors and executives scrambling to figure out what the geopolitical events of the weekend mean for their portfolios and companies, all was silent on the insider filings front. 

There were no Form 4s, Form 13s, or political reports that meet our materiality  threshold. 

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures are bright this morning.

I mentioned yesterday that there’s potential to 438 on $SPY.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Canadians!

The market was very resilient today considering what’s going on.

If $SPY continues on this path higher there’s potential to 438.

The utilities sector has been schmeissed (technical term) over the past couple of months. Its like all of a sudden investors all woke up en masse to finally decide the rising interest rates environment offers better alternatives for their investing dollars than relatively riskier dividend paying stocks.

This may be true, but is it possible investors may have overreacted a bit?

On a sector level, the Utilities ETF $XLU has potentially put in a tradeable bottom -- at least one we can lean against for risk management purposes. And considering their is upcoming earnings announcement risk in many of the biggest names in this sector, playing the ETF feels like the safest way to play.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One day of buying pressure doesn’t change the situation with precious metals. 

Gold bugs were out in full force Friday, driving gold and silver to impressive gains that would excite even the least devout among them.

But don’t get your hopes up… 

Precious metals stopped falling at a logical level of support.

Good, old-fashioned price memory triggered a standard response – nothing magical.

More importantly, nothing bullish.

Check out a custom index equally weighting gold, silver, and platinum:

The index is clinging to the lower bounds of a multi-year range as it retests its year-to-date lows, creating a logical place for buyers to support price across multiple timeframes.  

Beneath the surface: Platinum hit a fresh 52-week low, while gold and silver fell roughly 1% and 3% last week, respectively.

It’s not upbeat data, failing to entice a long position at these levels. 

Gold futures also hit the brakes at a potential support zone last week:

Gold slid into a critical retracement level, registering its lowest 14-day RSI...

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Energy stocks have been the best-performing group thus far during the second half of 2023. However, they have given back some of their gains in recent weeks as selling pressure resurfaces.

With energy indexes rolling over at their old highs yet again, the question we’re asking (and have been asking) is simple… 

What is it going to take for these stocks to finally break out?

Here is a dual-pane chart showing the Equal-Weight Energy Sector testing the upper bounds of a multi-month basing pattern on both absolute and relative terms.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Broadwood Partners.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $7.7 million in STAAR Surgical Company $STAA.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a powerful day on Friday for the indices.

Futures are lower this morning due to the attack on Israel.