I keep hearing that today’s FOMC announcement and press conference will be a snoozefest.

I couldn’t disagree more.

I think a major development is riding on the market's expectation for future rate cuts.

In recent weeks, the expectations for the next rate cut have moved forward.

During this time, Trump has put pressure on the Fed, and the latest CPI report showed inflation cooling.

But, the reason doesn’t matter as much as the fact that the bond market is buying the story.

The US 10-yr has fallen from about 4.8% to 4.55% in the last two weeks.

More importantly, it’s taking the US Dollar with it.

DXY is the most critical chart in the world right now and it is moving with the bond market and investors’ expectations for interest rates.

If Powell gives any indication that they are moving lower sooner today, it could be the catalyst needed to fail this breakout and send DXY back into its old range.

If the dollar rolls over here or even falls back into a sideways trend, the impact could be massive for risk assets.

And I don’t just mean US equities. I think international stocks stand to win more than...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLC.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This morning is just a friendly reminder to turn off the TV.

There's nothing on there to help you. It's not their job to help you make better and more informed investing decisions.

In fact, it's quite the opposite. Their only job is to convince you that you need to come back and keep watching.

That's it. That's literally their only job.

Some people are too weak to overcome their tricks, and instead fall for the old trap of, "I need to watch so I can stay informed".

 implications, however, are NOT that you'll be more informed. In fact, you're actually going to be a lot more misinformed.

Again, their job is NOT to inform you, or even to help you. That's never been their job, not matter how much they pretend that it is.

So don't fall for the trap of traditional media. If they've proven anything over the years, it's that they cannot be trusted.

Turn it off. And put on some music instead.

I'll let you know when I'm on tv, and you can turn it on for a few minutes. Or better yet, I'll just send you the video replay.

But everything you need to know you'll see right here first. 

Now, with that in mind,...

First up, Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A., the Mexican investment firm known for its deep pockets and strategic plays, just scooped up 100,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF.

That’s a $2.9 million bet on the refiner, and it raises eyebrows as energy stocks continue their promising climb into the first weeks of 2025.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 24, 2025:

Meanwhile, John C. Malone has added to his stake in The Liberty Braves Group $BATRA.

Malone grabbed 33,600 shares, reinforcing his commitment to the company behind the Atlanta Braves franchise. 

Today's number is... 22

My Developed Markets Advance-Decline line, which consists of 22 developed markets, just closed at an all-time high.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

The black line represents the Developed Markets Advance-Decline line, which includes the following countries' ETFs: Canada, USA, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, and Singapore.

The Takeaway: I like using this AD Line as it is a valuable indicator for assessing overall market strength. It measures the number of developed markets participating or not, providing us with insights into the health of the market move. So, when more markets are advancing than declining, the AD Line rises; in contrast, it falls when there are more declining markets than advancing ones.

Currently, this AD line is at its highest level ever, which means that the strong...

We want to bring your attention to Argentina.

By our rankings, ARGT has ranked the best global ETF every single week for the last three months.

That's an incredibly impressive record.

The message here is simple; there are strong areas of outperformance outside the United States.

The team is in New York this week to get together with our intimate Portfolio Accelerator group. If you want to join to get access to these exclusive events and have access to our analyst team, you can apply here. Spaces are limited!

Notice all the same industry groups constantly green:

• Broker Dealers & Exchanges
• Cloud
• Internet
• Cyber Security
• Software
• Regional Banks

This is what a persistently green trend on our power rankings looks like.

Let the winners ride.

Broker Dealers & Exchanges $IAI is up +45% since 2024!

These are precisely the opportunities we'll be discussing at our exclusive Portfolio Accelerator event in New York next week. Not only are members granted access to these fantastic events throughout the year, but they're also given access to our internal analyst meetings.

You can click here to apply; spaces are limited!

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

I’m really grateful for the path I took in getting where I am today.

I wasn’t always hanging out on an island trading and covering the stock market.

I put in my time. 

I started my career in the Big 4, auditing some of the largest financial institutions in the world.

I spent long nights ticking and tying financial statements and testing derivative valuations for companies like Morgan Stanley and Interactive Brokers.

I know the strangest things about these companies' fundamentals and their history. I made friends and memories I’ll never forget. I was in the room for some historic market events. When I think back on some chapters of my early adult life, they were literally set in these offices. 

But none of the non-public information I learned at these places back in the day is relevant or material now. I have an insider's understanding of these businesses, but no special information about them. 

And I don’t need it. I’m a long-term bull on a lot of these companies simply because of the people who run them. Some have been great mentors over the...

We've been obnoxious about our natural gas trade recently, and we still think it has tremendous upside from the current level.

That's why we outlined the coal industry and our favorite miner last week.

But that's not all. We're also stalking the agricultural inputs industry, which is levered to the price of natural gas, for a breakout.

Our Fertilizer Index is an equal-weight basket of 11 stocks from the agricultural inputs industry like Corteva $CTVA, Nutrien $NTR, and Mosaic $MOS.

The price fell to a new cycle low in December, but the bulls quickly stepped up and created...

Today's relatively short-term trade has an earnings catalyst, and I'm betting it will propel us to profits.

The stock has already had a stellar run over the past 52-weeks. Will the upcoming earnings mark the top? I doubt it.

Here's a one-year chart of a technology company that specializes in mobile app growth and monetization solutions -- Applovin Corp $APP:

As strong as this stock has been, it looks like it's setting up for another leg higher. And the upcoming February 12th earnings report just may be the catalyst the market needs to send this stock flying again. 

Of course, earnings can be a wild card, so it'll be important to define my risks.

Here's the Play:

I like buying an $APP February 400/450 Bull Call Spread for an approximately $11.50 debit. This means that I'll be long the Feb 400 calls and short an equal amount of the 450 calls. This debit I pay today is the most I can lose in a worst-case scenario:

I'm going to hold this trade, no matter what, through the February 12 earnings event.

On February 13th, my stop becomes $400. If $APP is below $400 per share, I'll close the spread for...

The S&P 500 just made its first new all-time high of 2025.

This came after Donald Trump told business leaders at the Davos World Economic Forum that he would demand lower interest rates.

Although this isn't likely to come to fruition, the market loves this guy's attitude.

*click the image to enlarge it

Union Pacific $UNP reported mixed results but rallied over 5% with a reaction score of 3.60. The company plans to repurchase between $4 and $5B during 2025.

Elevance Health $ELV reported mixed results but rallied nearly 3% with a 1.29 reaction score. The market loved to hear that the quarterly dividend was increased by 5% to $1.71 per share.

Freeport-McMoRan $FCX reported mixed results and fell 1.51% with a reaction score of -1.27. The market didn't like to hear that the management team revised capital expenditures higher or that copper production is being revised down because of mill maintenance.

GE Aerospace reported a double beat and rallied 6.60% with a reaction score of...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XLV position to March options.
3. Closed XLC at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The replay of this week's LIVE video Conference Call is available for Premium Members of ASC Research. 

Click here to sign up and catch up on the replay, download the 100+ charts and review each of the new trade ideas.

One of the greatest market indicators of all-time is the January Barometer.

Brought to us by the good folks at the...

Today’s top moves come via two significant 13G filings.

Point72 Asset Management boosted its stake in Syndax Pharmaceuticals $SNDX from 3.25% to 5.00%.

This increase signals growing confidence in the company’s prospects from one of the most high-profile hedge funds in the market.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 23, 2025:

Dimensional Fund Advisors disclosed an initial 5.30% position in Academy Sports and Outdoors $ASO. 

A 13G is a passive stake filing that reveals when an investor takes a large position (over 5%) in a company.

It’s often a sign they see solid potential in the stock and are placing a bet on its future growth.

At the top of the list is the Crypto Industry Innovators ETF $BITQ.

What captures our interest is if Bitcoin successfully resolves higher from this 100,000 consolidation band, this group could provide serious alpha to investors.

It's returned investors just shy of +600% since 2023.

Today's number is... 0.0%

After a brief pullback in the larger trend, the bulls have regained control and pushed the S&P 500 higher. The S&P 500 now has a 0.0% drawdown, which means that it's at an all-time high. So, the bull market continues!

Here is a bar chart displaying all S&P 500 bull markets since 1950:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what this chart shows:

• The blue bars represent the percentage change of each bull market.
• The red dots represent the total number of trading days for each bull market.
• The blue horizontal dashed line indicates the average percentage change across all bull markets, while the red horizontal dashed line indicates the average number of trading days in bull markets.
• For the data nerds, I have added the data table for each bull and bear market. 

The Takeaway: I define a bull market as a rally that rises by 20% or...

Bears just can’t seem to score any points lately.

They continue to struggle at breaking down even the worst areas of the market. We keep seeing it.

Solar stocks are the latest example.

The whole group was bid up today with some huge moves from the heavily-shorted names. 

Here’s the Solar Index $TAN:

TAN suffered its worst single day performance since the 2020 crash following the election in November. It fell over 10% to new cycle lows.

However, there has been little follow-through in the time since. And today, we saw a nice pop off the pivot lows from last month.

Also notice how TAN hasn’t been oversold for more than a year now as selling pressure has waned. I think bears are slowly losing control. 

They are also positioned way offside when it comes to this basket of stocks. Some of the largest short positions in the market are in the indexes components.

And we can’t finish the bullish argument without discussing the obvious political tailwinds under the new Trump administration.

While I’m...