From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices have been heading lower for two weeks now.

Will we have a dead-cat bounce or continue lower? That's the question.

If they want, they can send the indices down another 5%.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their...

For me, this is what we want to watch.

Are you wondering whether this correction in the stock market can turn into something much more severe?

I certainly am.

As thrilled as we are to see some of these Tech and Growth stocks get hammered, the question is whether this aggressive selling will spill into other more value-oriented areas.

There are 3 main charts that we have on our radar.

The first one is in credit. If we're entering into a new bear market, or an aggressive period of high volatility, you are likely to see that stress in the bond market. If Treasuries begin to outperform High yield, it's evidence of that stress.

The next one is in High Beta vs Low Volatility stocks. This ratio tends to move very closely with the averages. If you start to see a bid in Low Volatility stocks relative to High Beta, then this correction is likely to be more severe.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

August and September are not for the faint of heart.

After the release of the July FOMC minutes today the market headed straight down. I guess it wasn't happy about the potential for more rate hikes.

The indices have had a decent pull-in since the beginning of August. We just have to be aware of a dead-cat bounce.

As is common when the stock market is moving lower, we're seeing rising options premiums. We aren't seeing any big volatility spikes yet, and $VIX is still relatively muted, but the recent rise coupled with setups that appear to be ripe for some sideways action in the coming weeks and months has me on the hunt for delta-neutral premium selling opportunities.

Today's trade is in a metals and materials stock that appears to be stuck in a year-long range that we're betting on continuing.

Check out this chart of Freeport McMoran $FCX for a visual of what we're seeing:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

When it rains, it pours.

Markets chop sideways most of the time. This has been the reality for forex markets for much of the year.

But that’s starting to change as numerous US dollar pairs reach new 10-month highs. The dollar is taking down crucial levels while the US Dollar Index $DXY retests a year-to-date downtrend line and key former highs.

The peculiar coincidence sets up some potentially critical resolutions for these USD pairs.

If they fail, the dollar rally is likely over. 

If they hold and additional USD breakouts materialize, selling pressure will intensify for many risk assets.

As of today, quite a few forex pairs are on the verge of supporting a sustained US dollar rally…

Let’s start with the second largest component of the DXY (13.6%), the US dollar-Japanese yen:

The USD/JPY is completing a six-week base as it breaks to its highest level since November.

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filed by Boxer Capital LLC.

The investment fund reported a purchase of roughly $35 million in Mirati Therapeutics $MRTX.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$SPY finally closed its gap down to 442.97.

There are lots of gaps below, but I was looking for this nearby gap to get filled.

Today we have the minutes from the July FOMC meeting.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market pretty much drifted lower all day.

It erased yesterday's bounce, and $SPY closed to its respective gap below.

Is now the time to get long equities?

If you kept up with the headlines and what the sell side analysts have to say, you'd think it would be.

Fortunately we try to stay ahead of the curve around here.

Yesterday we discussed the recent sentiment shift among permabears, wall street analysts, hedge funds and financial media.

You can read that again here.

To add to that sentiment shift, here is the our internal sentiment composite which includes data from Individual Investors, Advisories, Active Investment Managers, Volatility and the Options Market.

As you can see last year saw some of the most pessimistic levels in history, giving us one of the greatest buying opportunities we've ever seen.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filed by Michael Andrew Chambers, director of Sarepta Therapeutics $SRPT.

Chambers reported an additional purchase of 23,686 SRPT shares, equivalent to $2.5 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices ran right to resistance yesterday only to get slammed overnight.

It's a little bit of a tug of war right here between the bulls and the bears.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One of my favorite scenes from "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" is when we get to meet the in-house surf instructor, played by Paul Rudd.

Rudd’s character, Chuck, a transplant local, imparts sage advice, “When life gives you lemons, just say f@&k the lemons and bail!”

I always laugh at that one, even as I write this note.

That’s probably because  I’ve spent the better part of the past twenty years chasing waves – but I don’t share this Hollywood version of a stoner-surfer ethos regarding life.

But I do follow this mindset when it comes to markets…

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$SPY and $QQQ are stuck under a lot of resistance levels.

There's a possibility we break above those levels this week, but we must keep stops tight.