Energy commodities are holding up despite last week’s selling pressure.

No, I’m not talking about natural gas – that rope snapped months ago.

But the rest of the main players – crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline – rebounded heading into the weekend. And when I look at the charts, Friday’s strength might be the beginning of a more sustained advance for energy.

Check out the equal-weight energy index:

It’s finding support where I would expect – the prior-cycle highs from 2018 and a key retracement level off the 2020 low.

Notice the index found support at this level in late 2021. This is the polarity principle in action.

A bounce here makes sense for energy contracts. It doesn’t mean they will, of course.

The index is also retesting a...

It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

The Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB collapse dominates the week's headlines.

While risks appear isolated for now, unlike in 2008, the next chart reveals a storm brewing beneath the surface...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Last night, I mentioned support on the $SPX was at 3,873... and we broke below.

I'd like to see $SPY get back above 393.

The Volatility Gods are offering us more tempting options premiums to sell. Is it a trap? Perhaps.

But I can step into the morass with a defined risk delta-neutral credit spread in a sector ETF that looks rangebound.

This puts me in a position to profit from a mean-reversion in volatility while protecting against further scary market action.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US bank stocks big and small took a beating Thursday, with the Bank ETF $KBE posting its largest single-day decline since 2020.

The steep sell-off came on the heels of Silicon Valley Bank’s $SIVB Wednesday announcement of a $1.8B loss, mainly due to accepting unrealized losses in US Treasuries.

Based on SIVB’s acute exposure to the tech industry, you can argue larger banks with more diversified portfolios and clients don’t carry the same risk. And they don’t.

Regardless, the next chart reveals a storm brewing beneath the surface...

Check out bank stocks (KBE inverted) overlaid with the US Treasury 2s10s spread:

I inverted KBE to highlight the strong relationship between banks and the yield curve. The two lines look almost identical over longer timeframes.

The main takeaway: Banks do not fare well when the shorter end of the curve outpaces the longer end.

Why? They hold heaps of government debt across the curve – especially shorter durations. 

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Energy Holding Corp.

The firm revealed a $21 million purchase of Tecnoglass $TGLS shares.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a week.

On Monday in the live trading room I said $SPY is at 407.40, and we are extended to lock in some profits.

I didn't think we'd see SPY 390 in a matter of days.

This week we're looking at is Capital Goods sector.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix,...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

All the major indices broke below their 200-day moving averages.

That's not really what I wanted to see, but it happened.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The biggest Form 4 filing on today's hot list is from Catherine Spear, CEO of FIGS Inc $FIGS.

Spear reported the purchase of 790,000 FIGS shares, equivalent to $4.9 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

If the market can hold on to yesterday's low, I think there's potential we can head higher.

We really need to push past $SPY 400 with force and head straight to 405, then 408.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke again today, but the market could not get going to the upside.

The semiconductors have been very strong this week. That's usually a positive sign for the market.

Maybe they're decoupling; time will tell.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

Investors had second thoughts about stocks last week, with sentiment dropping across the board. This week’s Investors Intelligence survey shows a healthy return to optimism as bears dropped to their lowest level in over a year and the bull-bear spread moved back above its August high.   

Why It Matters: Stocks tend to do well when persistent pessimism fades. In such an environment increasing investor optimism is a bullish tailwind for stocks. The shift from pessimism to optimism is not always a one-way street. Consolidation along the way is to be expected but a return to ex excessive pessimism would not be a healthy development. The latest II data suggests last week’s sentiment shift was the former rather than the later. We will look to the AAII & NAAIM (released later this week) for confirmation that investors were just catching their breath.  

In this week’s Sentiment Report we look at how investors are responding to the recent price volatility and how that volatility may work...