We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by NextEra Energy $NEE director Kirk S. Hachigian.

Hachigian revealed an NEE purchase worth $700,000.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is indicating higher this morning.

Now let's see if we can have a follow-through day from yesterday.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

The year we're looking at is the Construction sector.

It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

Developed European benchmark interest rates are posting fresh highs. Those potential failed breakouts back in early January have quickly turned into nothing more than false or premature moves.

And while US yields continue to climb, their recent rise pales compared to their European counterparts.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

Markets churn sideways, plagued with indecision. But one thing is certain…

The global rising rate environment remains intact.

Developed European benchmark interest rates are posting fresh highs. Those potential failed breakouts back in early January have quickly turned into nothing more than false or premature moves.

And while US yields continue to climb, their recent rise pales compared to their European counterparts.

What does that imply for domestic rates in the coming weeks and months?

For the past year and a half, we have turned to developed European yields for insight into the direction of domestic interest rates. 

The analysis proved insightful as the rising rate environment has been global in scope. Europe has given a nice heads-up regarding the direction of yields stateside. And the market continues to support this approach. 

Check out the German 10-year yield:

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This morning was very choppy, and then the market straightened itself out.

I mentioned in the live trading room that we're really due for a bounce.

And then, late in the afternoon, we got it.

This is the video recording of the March 2nd, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

03/02/23 2:00 PM ET

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Mark P. Vergnano, a director of Waters Corporation $WAT.

Vergnano reported a purchase worth $997,927.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We are riding a fine line.

The $SPX and the $NAS are sitting right at their respective 200-day moving averages. The $RUT is the strongest as of now.

Question is do we break down or start to bounce.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

The February hangover is now behind us, and following a month of corrective action, we think stocks will embark on a fresh leg higher soon.

Risk appetite continues to improve, and market internals are as healthy as we've seen in years.

This is an environment where we want to be looking for stocks to buy.

Today, we have a newly-public growth stock that is making new highs and has been outperforming aggressively this year.

Let's dive in.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Instead of allowing the market to dictate your emotions along with the herd, let it simply highlight the path of least resistance.

That’s what I’m doing.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

March has started off on shaky ground.

The $SPX tested the 200-day moving average at 3,940 again.

It bounced, but we'll see if it can hold this level.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

When the Fed raised rates to 4.50% in early February, the market was expecting that any additional tightening this Spring would be taken back (and then some) and that by the end of the year the Fed Funds Rate would be at 4.25%. Now, the market is pricing in a year-end Fed Funds Rate of at least 5.25%. Over the course of a month, market expectations for rates have shifted higher by a full percentage point.     

Why It Matters: Stocks stumbled in February as the markets digested the shift in expectations from “rate cuts by the end of the year” to a “higher for longer” reality. This led to investors who had been slow to embrace stock market strength to reconsider recently discovered optimism. We have documented that stocks tend to do well in the wake of persistent pessimism. Under-pinning this analysis is the assumption that pessimism is indeed fading. If expectations for higher rates lead to renewed pessimism, it will be difficult for sustainable strength to emerge. You need to have bulls to have a...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets continue to churn sideways, frustrating most investors.

Instead of allowing the market to dictate your emotions along with the herd, let it simply highlight the path of least resistance. That’s what I’m doing.

Today, I want to share with you two ways to trade the British pound – regardless of its next directional move…

The structural trend for the pound undoubtedly points sideways. A zoomed-out weekly chart makes that clear:

Yes, it has reclaimed a critical shelf of former lows. But it’s messy. And while I believe the pound and other currency pairs will begin to trend in the coming weeks and months, I have no idea what direction they will take.  

So I’m prepared to trade the British pound in either direction.

I laid out the bullish case at the end of January. You can check it out here.

Today, I want to draw attention to those former lows at approximately 1.1950, outlining...

If stocks are going higher from here, Meta Platforms $META (the cool kids call it "facebook") is likely to lead the way.

We're going to leverage some short puts to pay for the potential of unlimited upside if we get our timing right.

And the best part is, we've got a nearby risk-management level to tell us we're wrong. And if we are, we'll likely know quickly.

Check out this chart of $META: